Modelling Plant Disease Epidemics

An epidemic is the progress of disease in time and space. Each epidemic has a structure whose temporal dynamics and spatial patterns are jointly determined by the pathosystem characteristics and environmental conditions. One of the important objectives in epidemiology is to understand such spatio-temporal dynamics via mathematical and statistical modelling. In this paper, we outline common methodologies that are used to quantify and model spatio-temporal dynamics of plant diseases, with emphasis on developing temporal forecast models and on quantifying spatial patterns. Several examples of epidemiological models in cereal crops are described, including one for Fusarium head blight.     

Geostatistical interpolation and aggregation of crop growth model outputs

Many crop growth models require daily meteorological data. Consequently, model simulations can be obtained only at a limited number of locations, i.e. at weather stations with long-term records of daily data. To estimate the potential crop production at country level, we present in this study a geostatistical approach for spatial interpolation and aggregation of crop growth model outputs. As case study, we interpolated, simulated and aggregated crop growth model outputs of sorghum and millet in West-Africa. We used crop growth model outputs to calibrate a linear regression model using environmental covariates as predictors. The spatial regression residuals were investigated for spatial correlation. The linear regression model and the spatial correlation of residuals together were used to predict theoretical crop yield at all locations using kriging with external drift. A spatial standard deviation comes along with this prediction, indicating the uncertainty of the prediction. In combination with land use data and country borders, we summed the crop yield predictions to determine an area total. With spatial stochastic simulation, we estimated the uncertainty of that total production potential as well as the spatial cumulative distribution function. We compared our results with the prevailing agro-ecological Climate Zones approach used for spatial aggregation. Linear regression could explain up to 70% of the spatial variation of the yield. In three out of four cases the regression residuals showed spatial correlation. The potential crop production per country according to the Climate Zones approach was in all countries and cases except one within the 95% prediction interval as obtained after yield aggregation. We concluded that the geostatistical approach can estimate a country’s crop production, including a quantification of uncertainty. In addition, we stress the importance of the use of geostatistics to create tools for crop modelling scientists to explore relationships between yields and spatial environmental variables and to assist policy makers with tangible results on yield gaps at multiple levels of spatial aggregation.     

K步稳定的鞋印花纹图像自动聚类

目的 鞋印是刑事侦查的重要物证之一,如何对积累的大量鞋印花纹图像进行自动归类管理是刑事技术迫切需要解决的问题之一。与其他类图像不同,鞋印花纹图像具有种类多但数目未知、同类花纹分布不均匀且同类花纹数目少的特点。基于鞋印花纹图像的这些特点,用目前典型的聚类算法对鞋印花纹图像集进行聚类,并不能取得很好的效果。在对鞋印花纹图像进行分析的基础上,提出一种K步稳定的鞋印花纹图像自动聚类算法。方法 对已标记的鞋印花纹图像进行统计发现,各类鞋印花纹之间在特征空间上存在互不相交的区域(本文称为隔离带)。算法的核心思想是寻找各类鞋印花纹之间的隔离带,来将各类分开。过程为:以单调递增或递减的方式调整特征空间中判定两点为一类的阈值,得到数据集的多次划分;若在连续K次划分的过程中,某一类的成员不发生变化,则说明这K次调整是在隔离带中进行的,即聚出一类,并从数据集中删除已标记的数据;选择下一个阈值对剩余的数据集进行划分,输出K步不变的类;依此类推,直到剩余数据集为空,聚类完成。结果 在两类公开测试数据集和实际鞋印花纹数据集上进行实验,本文算法的主要性能指标都超过典型算法,其中在包含5792枚实际鞋印花纹数据集上的聚类准确率和F-Measure值分别达到了99.68%和95.99%。结论 针对鞋印花纹图像特点,提出了一种通过寻找各类之间的隔离带进行自动聚类的算法,并在实际应用中取得了很好的效果。且算法性能受参数的变化以及类的形状影响较小。本文算法同样适用于具有类似特点的其他数据集的自动聚类。     

Treatment of severe immune-mediated thrombocytopenia with human IV immunoglobulin in 5 dogs

BACKGROUND: Glucocorticoids with or without other immunotherapy are the initial treatment of choice for dogs with severe immune-mediated thrombocytopenia (IMT). The majority of treated dogs will have improvements in platelet counts within 5 to 7 days of starting therapy, but complications from hemorrhage often occur before a response is seen. Human IV immunoglobulin (hIVIG) blocks Fc receptors on mononuclear phagocytic cells in dogs; it is used in people with idiopathic thrombocytopenic purpura. HYPOTHESIS: The purpose of this study was to describe adverse effects and benefit of hIVIG in addition to conventional immunosuppressive therapy in dogs with severe IMT. ANIMALS: Five client-owned dogs with severe primary IMT. METHODS: Case series. The hospital database was searched for dogs with primary IMT treated with hIVIG. RESULTS: No adverse effects were noted during or after hIVIG infusion in any treated dog. Over a 6-month follow-up, all dogs were clinically normal when using conventional immunosuppressive therapy. Human IVIG was administered 3 days after initiation of immunosuppressive therapy in 4 dogs, and, after 2 days, in 1 dog. In all dogs, the mean platelet counts pre- and 24 hours post-hIVIG infusion (0.28-0.76 g/kg) were 2,500/pL and 50,600/microL (62,750/microL for the 4 responders), respectively. One dog failed to respond as promptly to hIVIG (0.34 g/kg), and the platelet count increased to 66,000/microL after 9 days of immunosuppressive therapy. The mean duration of hospitalization post-hIVIG in all 5 dogs was 1.8 days (12 hours for responders), and the mean total length of hospitalization was 4.6 days (3.5 days for responders). Active hemorrhage resolved and no packed red blood cell transfusions were required after hIVIG infusion for responders. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL IMPORTANCE: Human IVIG was well tolerated and appeared to be associated with rapid platelet count recovery and amelioration of clinical signs in most dogs with IMT.     

Antiplatelet and Antithrombotic Effects of Isaridin E Isolated from the Marine-Derived Fungus via Downregulating the PI3K/Akt Signaling Pathway

Isaridin E, a cyclodepsipeptide isolated from the marine-derived fungus Amphichorda felina (syn. Beauveria felina) SYSU-MS7908, has been demonstrated to possess anti-inflammatory and insecticidal activities. Here, we first found that isaridin E concentration-dependently inhibited ADP-induced platelet aggregation, activation, and secretion in vitro, but did not affect collagen- or thrombin-induced platelet aggregation. Furthermore, isaridin E dose-dependently reduced thrombosis formation in an FeCl₃-induced mouse carotid model without increasing the bleeding time. Mechanistically, isaridin E significantly decreased the ADP-mediated phosphorylation of PI3K and Akt. In conclusion, these results suggest that isaridin E exerts potent antithrombotic effects in vivo without increasing the risk of bleeding, which may be due to its important role in inhibiting ADP-induced platelet activation, secretion and aggregation via the PI3K/Akt pathways.     

黄牛木种群空间分布格局研究

为促进黄牛木Cratoxylum cochinchinense在珠三角地区生态建设中的推广和应用,采用样方调查法,于2016-2017年在广州市和台山市3个黄牛木天然林集中分布区布设样地,通过绘制种群空间分布点位置图,结合方差均值比率法和聚集度指标,分析种群的空间分布类型、聚集程度,从而揭示黄牛木种群的空间分布特性、生...     

狭鳕（Theragra chalcogramma Palas）目标强度的现场测定

１９９３年夏季“北斗”号调查船白令海狭鳕（ＴｈｅｒａｇｒａｃｈａｌｃｏｇｒａｍｍａＰａｌａｓ）资源声学调查期间，利用计数—积分法对狭鳕的目标强度进行了现场测定。结果表明，平均叉长５１６ｃｍ的狭鳕的平均目标强度为－３４３ｄＢ；以常规的２０Ｌｏｇｌ形式表示，其目标强度与叉长的关系式为ＴＳ＝２０Ｌｏｇｌ－６８．６ｄＢ。该测定结果较目前采用的关系式：ＴＳ＝２０Ｌｏｇｌ－６６．０ｄＢ低２６ｄＢ；应用于资源量计算，其估算值将比现估算值高８２％。