Estimation of daily and total lactation milk yield of Chios ewes from single morning or evening records

Linear models were developed and evaluated for the estimation of daily (24 h) and total lactation milk yield of dairy sheep from single morning (am) or evening (pm) milking records. A total of 22,908 individual test-day milk records of 5110 ewes of the Chios breed, raised in 46 flocks, were used. Depending on the model, different daily milk yield estimates were derived for each ewe, accounting for lactation number, stage of lactation, season of previous lambing and interval between successive milkings. Daily milk yield was also estimated from doubling the single am or pm record. Actual and estimated yields were compared using root mean square errors (RMSEs), mean absolute differences, an accuracy parameter defined as the ratio of the actual yield variance over the sum of the variances of actual yield and absolute difference, and the product moment correlation between estimated and actual yield. Results were validated on independent datasets. Linear models resulted in less biased and more accurate estimates of the daily milk yield than simply doubling the am or pm record. Root mean square errors decreased by 7-37% and the mean absolute difference was reduced by 1-4% of the average daily yield. Higher accuracy and correlation were obtained from linear model application than doubling. Total lactation milk yield was predicted based on actual daily yield and compared to predictions based on estimated daily yield from am or pm records, as well as directly on single milking records. Root mean square errors obtained when daily yield had been estimated with linear models were 26-35% lower compared to doubling the am or pm yield and 0-13% lower compared to estimating the total lactation yield directly from single milking records. Linear model application also resulted in lower mean absolute difference and higher accuracy and correlation than doubling the am or pm record. Recording the yield of a single milking (am or pm) instead of both can benefit milk recording by reducing its cost and increasing farmer participation. In this context, linear models developed in the present study can be used for the accurate estimation of daily (24 h) and total lactation milk yield from single milking records.     

Predicting effective doses for the joint action of two fungicide applications

A function was derived to predict fungicide efficacy when more than one application of a single active ingredient is made to a crop, given parameters describing the dose–response curves of the component single-spray applications. In the function, a second application is considered to act on that proportion of the total pathogen population which was uncontrollable at the time of the first application (represented by the lower asymptote of the dose–response curve for the first treatment), plus any additional part of the population which survived the first application as a result of a finite dose being applied. Data to estimate the single-spray dose–response curve parameters and validate predictions of two-spray programme efficacy were obtained from separate subsets of treatments in four field experiments. A systemic fungicide spray was applied to wheat at a range of doses, at one or both of two times (t₁ and t₂), in all dose combinations. Observed values of the area under the disease progress curve (AUDPC) for septoria leaf blotch (Mycosphaerella graminicola) were used to construct response surfaces of dose at t₁ by dose at t₂ for each culm leaf layer. Parameters were estimated from single-spray and zero-dose treatment data only. The model predicted a high proportion (R² = 71–95%) of the variation in efficacy of the two-spray programmes. AUDPC isobols showed that the dose required at t₂ was inversely related to the dose at t₁, but the slope of the relationship varied with the relative timings of t₁ and t₂ in relation to culm leaf emergence. Isobols were curved, so the effective dose – the total dose required to achieve a given level of disease suppression – was lower when administered as two applications.     

利用Wood模型拟合中国荷斯坦牛乳脂率变化的效果分析

为了解中国荷斯坦牛乳脂率变化规律,本文利用Wood模型对我国南方5个大中型奶牛场2008~2010年1~3胎中国荷斯坦牛33 194条测定日乳脂率进行曲线拟合。结果表明:中国荷斯坦牛乳脂率变化曲线为典型的倒抛物线形,第一胎拟合度最高(0.9820),第三胎最低(0.9789)。二胎牛乳脂率最先达到最低点(第16周),而三胎乳脂率最后达到(第19周)。就最低乳脂率而言,二胎牛最大(3.54%),而三胎牛最小(3.45%)。综合各方面情况得出,Wood模型适用于中国荷斯坦牛乳脂率变化的曲线拟合。     

Adrenomedullin (AM) and adrenomedullin binding protein (AM-BP) in the bovine mammary gland and milk: Effects of stage of lactation and experimental intramammary E. coli infection

Adrenomedullin (AM) has been characterized as an endogenous tissue survival factor and modulator of many inflammatory processes. Because of the increased susceptibility of the mammary gland to infection during the time surrounding parturition in the cow, we investigated how milk and tissue content of AM and its binding protein (AM-BP) might be affected by the stage of lactation and the udder health status. Milk and mammary biopsy samples were obtained from Holstein cows 21 days prior to and at various times after calving to represent the dry period and early and mid-stages of lactation. Additional cows received an intramammary challenge with Escherichia coli for immunohistochemical characterization of AM and AM-BP. Milk AM concentrations were relatively constant across the stages of lactation while AM-BP increased two-fold (P<0.04) between early and mid-lactation. Milk AM (P<0.04) and AM-BP (P<0.03) increased as somatic cell counts (SCCs) increased within a given stage of lactation. Tissue content of both (AM and AM-BP) were significantly affected by stage of lactation, lowest in the dry period and progressively increasing to peak at mid-lactation as well as increasing in association with higher levels of SCCs. Following E. coli challenge, AM increased in epithelial cells surrounding mammary alveoli presenting high levels of SCCs. The data suggest that AM and AM-BP are cooperatively regulated in the mammary gland during lactation; changes in localized tissue AM and AM-BP content reflect a dynamic regulation of these tissue factors in the bovine mammary gland consistent with their protective effects within inflamed tissue.     

Study on Optimum Design of Rectangular Sedimentation Tanks

In this paper,the flow velocity fields,suspended solids concentration fields and flow-through curves in rectangular sedimentation tanks with different reaction baffles location,inlet horizontal velocity and length height ratio are simulated in detail using a developed mathematical model given in Reference 2.According to the numerical results,the influence of different reaction baffles location,inlet horizontal velocity and length height ratio on the operating efficiency is analyzed.Finally,the rational reaction baffles location,inlet horizontal velocity and length height ratio are presented.     

可视化编程技术在发动机外特性曲线绘制中的应用

通过对汽车发动机外特性的理论分析,在处理汽车发动机外特性曲线时,建立了一种适合处理发动机外特性曲线的三次样条函数拟合的数学模型,在C Builder可视化开发平台上,编制了汽车发动机外特性曲线绘制程序.利用三次样条函数插值法对实验数据进行拟合,实现了发动机外特性曲线绘制的自动化.     

关于滚子链额定功率曲线的探讨

在分析ISO10823、DIN8195、ANSIB29.^-1等标准和有关文献的基础上，结合一些国际知名链条公司的功率曲线，探讨了ISO10823功率曲线的建立基础，提出了使用标准时应注意的问题。     

天津大神堂海洋特别保护区生境修复初步评价

2012年4月、9月和2013年5月、9月份对渤海湾天津大神堂海洋特别保护区分别进行了大型底栖动物调查,用丰度/生物量比较曲线法分析了6个调查站位的大型底栖动物群落投礁前后受污染扰动的变化状况。结果表明,在调查期间保护区大型底栖动物群落表现出从最初的受到中等程度干扰→趋向于受到干扰→群落状况趋向正常,保护区生态状况已经大有好转,人工生态修复效果初显。     

A method of production data analysis for multi-fractured horizontal well in shale gas reservoir

Production data analysis is an effective method of evaluating gas in place, parameters of reservoir and hydraulic fractures. Current model of production data analysis fails to make sense because of the existence of absorption, multi-fracturing, and stimulated reservoir volume (SRV). Considering the effect of desorption, fracture interacting and closed boundary, the authors calculate the productivity of multi-fractured horizontal well in shale gas by Laplace transform and pressure superposition principle. Then theoretical charts of Agarwal-Gardner production decline curves are presented by employing new definition of dimensionless material balance time and dimensionless production, which is based on asymptotic approximations. The result shows that Agarwal-Gardner curves can be divided into two parts where they are scattered in early transient period, and where their shape was influenced by parameters relevant to adsorption, position of each fracture and reservoir geometry, and then drawn to Arps harmonious decline in pseudo steady state period. Reservoir parameters, hydraulic fracture characteristics and gas in place are evaluated by using the type curve matching with actual production data.     

基于ANN的复垦土壤水分特征曲线的预测研究

为能较容易且更准确地获取复垦土壤水分特征曲线,将易测定的土壤特性如土壤质地、容重和饱和含水量作为输入变量,采用基于bagging算法的神经网络法建立了用于预测土壤水分特征曲线的土壤转换函数法(PTFs)模型,并对徐州矿区复垦土壤的水分特征曲线进行了预测,同时与普通BP算法预测精度进行了比较.研究结果表明所建立的PTFs参数模型具有较高的估计精度,bagging算法均方根预测误差比普通BP算法减少了7.5%～27.0%,说明该模型的建立与求解为复垦土壤水分特征曲线的预测研究提供了一条新途径.