Impact of freshwater input and wind on landings of anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus) and sardine (Sardina pilchardus) in shelf waters surrounding the Ebre (Ebro) River delta (north-western Mediterranean)

Time series analyses (Box–Jenkins models) were used to study the influence of river runoff and wind mixing index on the productivity of the two most abundant species of small pelagic fish exploited in waters surrounding the Ebre (Ebro) River continental shelf (north‐western Mediterranean): anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus) and sardine (Sardina pilchardus). River flow and wind were selected because they are known to enhance fertilization and local planktonic production, thus being crucial for the survival of fish larvae. Time series of the two environmental variables and landings of the two species were analysed to extract the trend and seasonality. All series displayed important seasonal and interannual fluctuations. In the long term, landings of anchovy declined while those of sardine increased. At the seasonal scale, landings of anchovy peaked during spring/summer while those of sardine peaked during spring and autumn. Seasonality in landings of anchovy was stronger than in sardine. Concerning the environmental series, monthly average Ebre runoff showed a progressive decline from 1960 until the late 1980s, and the wind mixing index was highest during 1994–96. Within the annual cycle, the minimum river flow occurs from July to October and the wind mixing peaks in winter (December–April, excluding January). The results of the analyses showed a significant correlation between monthly landings of anchovy and freshwater input of the Ebre River during the spawning season of this species (April–August), with a time lag of 12 months. In contrast, monthly landings of sardine were significantly positively correlated with the wind mixing index during the spawning season of this species (November–March), with a lag of 18 months. The results provide evidence of the influence of riverine inputs and wind mixing on the productivity of small pelagic fish in the north‐western Mediterranean. The time lags obtained in the relationships stress the importance of river runoff and wind mixing for the early stages of anchovy and sardine, respectively, and their impact on recruitment.     

Fluctuations of landings and environmental conditions in the north-western Mediterranean Sea

Most of the monthly catches and CPUE of 13 studied commercial species in the coastal waters of the north-western Mediterranean were significantly positively correlated with run-off of local rivers (Rhône and Muga) and the wind mixing index during the spawning season, with time lags of less than a year (transfer function analyses). Rhône and Ebre interannual fluctuations in run-off were synchronous and were related to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), river run-offs being negatively correlated to high NAO episodes. The fluctuations of river discharges and the wind mixing index were cyclic but not related. The results showed that enhanced hydroclimatic conditions in the NW Mediterranean were favourable for the productivity of the fish and invertebrate stocks, and suggest the presence of linkage between recruitment of Mediterranean species and local (river discharges, wind conditions) and global (NAO) environmental conditions.     

Modeling and forecasting pelagic fish production using univariate and multivariate ARIMA models

ABSTRACT:   Univariate and multivariate autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models were used to model and forecast the monthly pelagic production of fish species in the Mediterranean Sea during 1990–2005. Autocorrelation (AC) and partial autocorrelation (PAC) functions were estimated, which led to the identification and construction of seasonal ARIMA models, suitable in explaining the time series and forecasting the future catch per unit of effort (CPUE) values. Univariate and multivariate ARIMA models satisfactorily predicted the total pelagic fish production and the production of anchovy, sardine, and horse mackerel. The univariate ARIMA models demonstrated a good performance in terms of explained variability and predicting power. The current findings revealed a strong autoregressive character providing relatively high R ² and satisfactory forecasts that were close to the recorded CPUE values. The present results also indicated that the multivariate ARIMA outperformed the univariate ARIMA models in terms of fitting accuracy. The opposite was evidenced when testing the forecasting accuracy of the two methods, where the univariate ARIMA models overall performed better than the multivariate models. The observed seasonal pattern in the monthly production series was attributed to the intrinsic nature of the pelagic fishery. As anchovy, sardine, and horse mackerel represent main target species in the Mediterranean pelagic fishery, the findings of the present study provided direct support for the potential use of accurate forecasts in decision making and fisheries management in the Mediterranean Sea.