Standardizing catch and effort data of the Taiwanese distant-water longline fishery in the western and central Pacific Ocean for bigeye tuna, Thunnus obesus

Catch per unit effort (CPUE) is often used as an index of relative abundance in fisheries stock assessments. However, the trends in nominal CPUE can be influenced by many factors in addition to stock abundance, including the choice of fishing location and target species, and environmental conditions. Consequently, catch and effort data are usually ‘standardized’ to remove the impact of such factors. Standardized CPUE for bigeye tuna, Thunnus obesus, caught by the Taiwanese distant-water longline fishery in the western and central Pacific Ocean (WCPO) for 1964–2004 were derived using three alternative approaches (GLM, GAM and the delta approach), and sensitivity was explored to whether catch-rates of yellowfin tuna and albacore tuna are included in the analyses. Year, latitude, and the catch-rate of yellowfin explained the most of the deviance (32–49%, depending on model configuration) and were identified consistently among methods, while trends in standardized catch-rate differed spatially. However, the trends in standardized catch-rates by area were found to be relatively insensitive to the approach used for standardization, including whether the catch-rates of yellowfin and albacore were included in the analyses.     

2003-2012年秘鲁外海茎柔鱼资源丰度年间变化分析

茎柔鱼是世界上重要的经济头足类,也是我国大陆鱿钓渔业最重要的捕捞对象之一。根据中国大陆鱿钓船2003-2004年、2006-2012年9年的渔业生产统计数据和卫星遥感获得的海洋环境数据,利用广义线性模型(generalized linear model,GLM)和广义加性模型(generalized additive model,GAM)对秘鲁外海茎柔鱼的资源丰度进行CPUE标准化,分析秘鲁外海茎柔鱼资源丰度年际变化。经显著性检验,得到最终选择加入模型的自变量有年、月、纬度、经度、叶绿素浓度、年与经度交互项、年与纬度交互项、月与经度交互项、月与纬度交互项共9个自变量。GAM结果表明,模型自变量对因变量的决定系数高达42.3%。标准化后CPUE与名义CPUE变化趋势相同,年平均值略低于名义CPUE,2003-2012年秘鲁外海茎柔鱼资源丰度年间变化较大,资源丰度最高的年份为2004年,GLM标准化后的平均CPUE为7.94 t/d;资源丰度最低的年份为2007年,GLM标准化后的平均CPUE为3.28 t/d。     

我国东、黄海鲐鱼灯光围网渔业CPUE标准化研究

日本鲐是我国近海重要的中上层鱼类资源之一,评估其资源量需要对单位捕捞努力量渔获量（CPUE）进行标准化。影响CPUE标准化的因素很多,包括季节、区域和海洋环境等。本文利用广义线型模型（GLM）和广义加性模型（GAM）,结合时空、捕捞船、表温等因子,对1998-2006年东、黄海大型灯光围网渔业鲐鱼CPUE进行标准化,并评价各因子对CPUE的影响。首先应用GLM模型评价时间、空间、环境以及捕捞渔船参数对CPUE的影响,并确定显著性变量。其次,将显著性变量逐一加入GAM模型,根据Akaike信息法则（AIC）,选择最优的GAM模型。最后,利用最优的GAM模型对CPUE标准化,并定量分析时间、空间、环境以及捕捞渔船参数对鲐鱼CPUE的影响。GLM模型结果表明：8个变量对CPUE有重要影响,依次为年、船队、船队与年的交互效应、月、船队与月份的交换效应、经度、纬度和海表温。根据AIC,包含上述8个显著性变量的GAM模型为最优模型,对CPUE偏差的解释为27.78%。GAM模型结果表明：高CPUE分别出现在夏季海表温为28～31 ℃的东海中部和冬季海表温为12～16 ℃的黄海;1998-2006年,标准化后的CPUE呈逐年下降趋势,与持续增长的捕捞努力量有关。     

西北太平洋公海柔鱼和日本爪乌贼个体发育期营养生态位变化分析

为了更好的了解柔鱼和日本爪乌贼个体发育期营养生态位变化,根据2021-2022年“淞航”号渔业资源调查船所采集36尾柔鱼和30尾日本爪乌贼样本,对其眼睛晶体进行了碳氮稳定同位素分析。结果表明：柔鱼个体δ13C、δ15N值变化幅度分别为0.10‰-1.68‰、0.79‰-7.51‰;日本爪乌贼个体δ13C、δ15N值变化幅度分别为0.15‰-1.20‰、0.81‰-7.05‰。柔鱼、日本爪乌贼生态位面积变化范围分别为0.40‰2-5.85‰2、0.27‰2-5.36‰2。GAM模型分析显示：柔鱼眼睛晶体δ13C、δ15N与晶体直径均具有显著的相关性（P<0.01）,偏差解释率分别为31.9%和34.3%。日本爪乌贼眼睛晶体δ13C、δ15N与晶体直径均具有显著的相关性（P<0.01）,偏差解释率分别为12.9%和19.4%。分析认为,个体营养生态位的变化幅度较大,侧面反映了西北太平洋黑潮-亲潮过渡区同位素基线值变化幅度较大;该海域的柔鱼、日本爪乌贼个体摄食水平存在很大差异;个体发育和基线值是影响组织δ13C、δ15N值的因素。     

北太平洋远东拟沙丁鱼渔场时空分布及其最适环境特征

基于2019—2020年北太平洋灯光敷网渔业数据和海表温度、叶绿素、海面高度等环境数据,采用空间叠加图、频次分析与经验累积分布函数、K-S检验和GAM模型4种方法分析了远东拟沙丁鱼(Sardinops sagax)渔场的单位捕捞努力量(CPUE)时空分布特征及与关键环境因子的相关关系。分析结果显示,作业渔场重心分布范围为147°~153°E、39°~43°N,在4—8月向东北方向移动,9—11月则向西南方向折返。通过频次分析与经验累积分布函数分析,中心渔场区域最适海表温度为10.0~18.0 ℃,最适叶绿素浓度为0.2~0.6 mg/m3,最适海面高度为0.2~0.7 m。K-S检验分析表明,高值CPUE海域和海表温度、叶绿素浓度、海面高度均有密切关系,最适范围分别为10.9~18.9 ℃、0.2~0.6 mg/m3、0.2~0.7 m。GAM模型模拟结果表明,高值CPUE的最适海表温度为11.0~17.0 ℃,最适叶绿素浓度为0.3~0.8 mg/m3,最适海面高度为0.1~0.4 m。综合来说,CPUE高值区海域的最适海表温度为11.0~18.0 ℃,叶绿素浓度为0.2~0.6 mg/m3,海面高度为0.2~0.7 m。     

基于GAM的长江口鱼类资源时空分布及影响因素

根据2006至2017年长江口及其邻近海域鱼类资源调查,运用广义加性模型研究长江口鱼类资源密度与环境因子之间的关系,并对2017年鱼类资源密度的时空分布进行预测。结果显示,春夏秋冬四个季节最佳GAM偏差解释率分别为69.6%、55.9%、51.4%和47.4%,交叉验证回归线斜率的平均效应为0.62～0.88。盐度、水温和溶解氧是影响长江口鱼类资源密度的主要环境影响因子且在不同季节对鱼类资源密度有不同的影响机制。总体上,在春、夏、秋季,盐度与鱼类资源密度之间存在正向相关性;在夏、秋、冬季,水温对鱼类资源密度有显著影响,在秋季与鱼类资源密度之间存在正向相关性;在春、秋、冬季,溶解氧对鱼类资源密度有显著影响,在冬季与鱼类资源密度之间存在正向线性相关。研究表明,2017年夏季鱼类资源密度较高;在长江口南支的自然延伸水域存在鱼类资源密度的相对低值,在崇明岛向海自然延伸方向水域存在鱼类资源密度的相对高值。后续研究将对长江口鱼类资源进行不同生态类型区分,以期更加准确地掌握影响各生态类型鱼类时空分布的环境因素及其时空分布信息。     

The effects of land use and climate on red kite distribution in the Iberian peninsula

The main breeding populations of the red kite (Milvus milvus L.), have been declining in the Iberian peninsula during the last decade. However, there is a lack of regional assessments of habitat suitability that identifies limiting ecological factors for the species and areas with conservation problems. In this work we present a regional model for the distribution and abundance of breeding red kites in the Iberian peninsula. The occurrence and estimated abundance in 100 km² UTM squares resulting from road censuses were modelled with broad-scale explanatory variables obtained from satellite imagery, thematic digital cartography, climatic data and spatial coordinates. The occurrence model incorporated mainly climatic variables and had a good discrimination ability, while the abundance model incorporated mainly land-use variables and had a lower explanatory power (r²=0.14). The predictions somewhat overestimated the results of the censuses, and this agrees with the decline of population size and range observed for this species in the Iberian peninsula. These models are relevant in the conservation of the species: first, they suggest the limiting factors for red kite in the Iberian peninsula, and, second, they generate predictive maps pointing out both areas in which conservation problems may be acute (suitable locations that are unoccupied), and areas where no data is available but the red kite is likely to be present (thus guiding further survey and research).     

基于PCA-GAM的阿拉伯海公海鸢乌贼资源量空间分布预测模型研究

为了科学预测鸢乌贼资源量的分布,更加合理开发和利用其资源,实验利用2017—2019年阿拉伯海公海灯光围网鸢乌贼生产数据,结合同期的盐度、温度、混合层厚度、海面高度异常、叶绿素a浓度、海表流速、经度和纬度数据构建了阿拉伯海鸢乌贼渔场的PCA-GAM预报模型。环境因子间的相关性会形成多重共线性,易造成模型过拟合,降低模型的预报能力。基于主成分分析(principal component analysis,PCA)降维技术,将环境数据转变成少数几个不相关但保留重要信息的主成分(PCs),将前8个PCs作为广义加性模型(GAM)的解释变量构建模型。利用交叉验证得到预报值和实际单位捕捞努力量渔获量(CPUE)[经过ln(CPUE+1)变换]相关系数均值为0.532 7,回归模型斜率的均值为0.708 7,截断的均值为1.471 1。模型预报的鸢乌贼资源量分布和实际的CPUE[经过ln(CPUE+1)变换]在空间上重叠度较高,表明PCA-GAM模型能够较好地预报阿拉伯海鸢乌贼资源量的空间分布。     

基于GAM模型研究金枪鱼围网沉降性能影响因素

金枪鱼围网渔业是现代金枪鱼渔业中捕捞效率最高的方法,研究围网沉降性能与影响因子之间的关系有利于提高围网捕捞效率.利用2011年9-12月金枪鱼围网渔船“金汇7号”在中西太平洋作业时所收集的数据,实验分析了围网沉降深度(H)与放网时间(T),放网速度(V0),括纲(L)及跑纲(L1)的投放长度,10、60和120 m 3个水层流速(V10,V60及V120)等因子之间的关系,并利用广义加性模型(GAM)评价了各因子对沉降深度的影响.结果表明:(1)网具中部沉降深度与时间的关系为H=-0.000 2 t2 +0.408 6 t+1.809 9(R2 =0.999 3);(2)沉降速度随着深度的增加而减小,网具中部沉降速度与时间的关系为V=2.5 ×107 t2-6×104 t +0.4412(R2 =0.985 2);(3)GAM模型中的逐步回归分析表明,T、V60、V120和L4个因子对H影响显著,且影响大小依次为V120、L、T和V60;(4)GAM模型分析表明,沉降深度随放网时间的增加而增大,放网时间集中在500 ～550 s;流速的大小与沉降深度呈负相关;括纲投放长度主要集中在1 800 m左右.     

Density and temperature dependence of gill net catch per unit effort for perch, Perca fluviatilis, and roach, Rutilus rutilus

Abstract  The densities of perch, Perca fluviatilis L., and roach, Rutilus rutilus (L.), were estimated in six and three lakes, respectively, using mark–recapture and ranged from 25–1064 perch ha⁻¹ and 865–2749 roach ha⁻¹. Effects of fish density, net type and water temperature on catch-per-unit-effort (CPUE) were analysed by generalised linear models (GLM) and generalised additive models (GAM). GAMs were fitted to estimate the simultaneous linear and nonlinear effects of temperature and density on CPUE. These models showed significant nonlinear effects of density on CPUE – mostly for perch, and also for both species at high densities. The models also revealed that both species had distinct density–temperature criteria of expected maximum CPUE and zero CPUE values. Because of the nonlinear relationship between CPUE and density, it was concluded that CPUE should be used with caution as a proxy of density.