Relating tradable credits for biodiversity to sustainability criteria in a dynamic landscape

Tradable biodiversity credit systems provide flexible means to resolve conflicts between development and conservation land-use options for habitats occupied by threatened or endangered species. We describe an approach to incorporate the influence of habitat fragmentation into the conservation value of tradable credits. Habitat fragmentation decreases gene flow, increases rates of genetic drift and inbreeding, and increases probabilities of patch extinction. Importantly, tradable credit systems will change the level of fragmentation over time for small and/or declining populations. We apply landscape equivalency analysis (LEA), a generalizable, landscape-scale accounting system that assigns conservation value to habitat patches based on patch contributions to abundance and genetic variance at landscape scales. By evaluating habitat trades using two models that vary the relationship between dispersal behaviors and landscape patterns, we show that LEA provides a novel method for limiting access to habitat at the landscape-scale, recognizing that the appropriate amount of migration needed to supplement patch recruitment and to offset drift and inbreeding will vary as landscape pattern changes over time. We also found that decisions based on probabilities of persistence alone would ignore changes in migration, genetic drift, and patch extinction that result from habitat trades. The general principle of LEA is that habitat patches traded should make at least equivalent contributions to rates of recruitment and migration estimated at a landscape scale. Traditional approaches for assessing the “take” and “jeopardy” standards under the Endangered Species Act based on changes in abundance and probability of persistence may be inadequate to prevent trades that increase fragmentation.     

Estimates of minimum viable population sizes for vertebrates and factors influencing those estimates

Population size is a major determinant of extinction risk. However, controversy remains as to how large populations need to be to ensure persistence. It is generally believed that minimum viable population sizes (MVPs) would be highly specific, depending on the environmental and life history characteristics of the species. We used population viability analysis to estimate MVPs for 102 species. We define a minimum viable population size as one with a 99% probability of persistence for 40 generations. The models are comprehensive and include age-structure, catastrophes, demographic stochasticity, environmental stochasticity, and inbreeding depression. The mean and median estimates of MVP were 7316 and 5816 adults, respectively. This is slightly larger than, but in general agreement with, previous estimates of MVP. MVPs did not differ significantly among major taxa, or with latitude or trophic level, but were negatively correlated with population growth rate and positively correlated with the length of the study used to parameterize the model. A doubling of study duration increased the estimated MVP by approximately 67%. The increase in extinction risk is associated with greater temporal variation in population size for models built from longer data sets. Short-term studies consistently underestimate the true variances for demographic parameters in populations. Thus, the lack of long-term studies for endangered species leads to widespread underestimation of extinction risk. The results of our simulations suggest that conservation programs, for wild populations, need to be designed to conserve habitat capable of supporting approximately 7000 adult vertebrates in order to ensure long-term persistence.     

Extinction risk of wood-living model species in forest landscapes as related to forest history and conservation strategy

Dead wood is a critical resource for biodiversity in boreal forests. We analysed the persistence of five model species inhabiting dead wood. By parameterising a metapopulation model (the incidence function model), the model species were all assigned characteristics that makes it likely that they have disappeared from some (20%) forest landscapes with a long history of forest management. In the metapopulation model, a forest stand (5 ha) was regarded as a habitat patch. The amount of habitat in each patch was obtained from models of dead wood dynamics of Norway spruce in central Sweden. Dead wood generated by altered management over the entire landscape was found to be less efficient in reducing extinction risks in comparison to the same amount of dead wood generated by protecting reserves. Because generation of dead wood by altered management is often less expensive than setting aside reserves, it is difficult to determine which conservation measure is most cost-efficient. In a landscape subjected to forestry for the first time, it was better to preserve a few large reserves than many small ones. However, in a managed, highly fragmented forest landscape it was better to set aside many small reserves. The reason for this was that small plots with high habitat quality could be selected, while large reserves originally contained habitats both of high and low quality, and the rate of habitat quality increase was low. A strategy for biodiversity conservation in a managed forest landscape should include information about the history of the landscape, the current amount and spatial distribution of forest habitats, and the potential for rapid restoration of forest habitats, both on managed and unmanaged forest land.     

Using a stand-level model to predict light absorption in stands with vertically and horizontally heterogeneous canopies

Background： Forest ecosystem functioning is strongly influenced by the absorption of photosynthetically active radiation （APAR）, and therefore, accurate predictions of APAR are critical for many process-based forest growth models. The Lambert-Beer law can be applied to estimate APAR for simple homogeneous canopies composed of one layer, one species, and no canopy gaps. However, the vertical and horizontal structure of forest canopies is rarely homogeneous. Detailed tree-level models can account for this heterogeneity but these often have high input and computational demands and work on finer temporal and spatial resolutions than required by stand-level growth models. The aim of this study was to test a stand-level light absorption model that can estimate APAR by individual species in mixed-species and multi-layered stands with any degree of canopy openness including open-grown trees to closed canopies. Methods： The stand-level model was compared with a detailed tree-level model that has already been tested in mixed-species stands using empirical data. Both models were parameterised for five different forests, including a wide range of species compositions, species proportions, stand densities, crown architectures and canopy structures. Results： The stand-level model performed well in all stands except in the stand where extinction coefficients were unusually variable and it appears unlikely that APAR could be predicted in such stands using （tree- or stand-level） models that do not allow individuals of a given species to have different extinction coefficients, leaf-area density or analogous parameters. Conclusion： This model is parameterised with species-specific information about extinction coefficients and mean crown length, diameter, height and leaf area. It could be used to examine light dynamics in complex canopies and in stand-level growth models.     

蓝莓米酒中总花色苷含量的测定

采用消光系数和pH示差2种方法对自制蓝莓米酒中总花色苷含量进行测定,测定值分别为16.82（±0.36）mg/100mL和17.48（±0.40）mg/100mL。2种方法均较为准确地反映了样品在溶液体系中的浓度,消光系数法所测值略小于pH示差法,后者操作难度比前者大。建议相关产品研发时可选用较为简便的消光系数法,最终产品选用较为准确的pH示差法。     

Does reduced MHC diversity decrease viability of vertebrate populations?

Loss of genetic variation may render populations more vulnerable to pathogens due to inbreeding depression and depletion of variation in genes responsible for immunity against parasites. Here we review the evidence for the significance of variation in genes of the Major Histocompatibility Complex (MHC) for conservation efforts. MHC molecules present pathogen-derived antigens to the effector cells of the immune system and thus trigger the adaptive immune response. Some MHC genes are the most variable functional genes in the vertebrate genome. Their variation is clearly of adaptive significance and there is considerable evidence that its maintenance is mainly due to balancing selection imposed by pathogens. However, while the evidence for selection shaping MHC variation on the historical timescale is compelling, a correlation between levels of MHC variation and variation at neutral loci is often observed, indicating that on a shorter timescale drift also substantially affects MHC, leading to depletion of MHC diversity. The evidence that the loss of MHC variation negatively affects population survival is so far equivocal and difficult to separate from effects of general inbreeding. Some species with depleted MHC variation seem to be particularly susceptible to infection, but other species thrive and expand following severe bottlenecks that have drastically limited their MHC variation. However, while the latter demonstrate that MHC variation is not always critical for population survival, these species may in fact represent rare examples of survival despite of the loss of MHC variation. There is clearly a compelling need for data that would disclose the possible consequences of MHC diversity for population viability. In particular, we need more data on the impact of MHC allelic richness on the abundance of parasites or prevalence of disease in populations, while controlling for the role of general inbreeding. Before such evidence accumulates, captive breeding programs and other conservation measures aimed at inbreeding avoidance should be favoured over those protecting only MHC variation, especially since inbreeding avoidance programs would usually conserve both types of genetic diversity simultaneously.     

Extirpation, colonization, and habitat dynamics of a keystone species along an urban gradient

Using 5 years of patch occupancy data for 384 habitat fragments, we evaluated population and habitat dynamics of the black-tailed prairie dog in urban habitat remnants in the rapidly developing landscape of Denver, CO, USA. Specifically, we evaluated the landscape factors, including fragment area, age, and connectivity, that characterize the habitat fragments most likely to be colonized by prairie dogs, as well as those experiencing local extinctions. In addition, we determined which patch types were most often removed by land development. Sites in proximity to colonies were more likely to be colonized by prairie dogs. Local extinctions were most common on isolated colonies, and older and more isolated colonies were more likely to be extirpated by human activity. In general, smaller and older habitat patches were at the highest risk of being lost to land development. Our results provide observations of dynamic changes to the distribution of a potential keystone species in an urban area, which can be used to inform island biogeographic and metapopulation models for wildlife persistence in developing landscapes. Although populations are currently in decline, most local extinctions are the direct result of human activity, and we suggest that prairie dogs in this area can persist with appropriate management.     

The ecology of extinction: population fluctuation and decline in amphibians

Even among widespread species with high reproductive potentials and significant dispersal abilities, the probability of extinctions should be correlated both with population size variance and with the extent of population isolation. To address how variation in demographic characteristics and habitat requirements may reflect on the comparative risk of species decline, I examined 617 time series of population census data derived from 89 amphibian species using the normalized estimate of the realized rate of increase, ΔN, and its variance. Amphibians are demonstrably in general decline and exhibit a great range of dispersal abilities, demographic characteristics, and population sizes. I compared species according to life-history characteristics and habitat use. Among the populations examined, census declines outnumbered increases yet the average magnitudes for both declines and increases were not demonstrably different, substantiating findings of amphibian decline. This gives no support for the idea that amphibian population sizes are dictated by regimes featuring relatively rare years of high recruitment offset by intervening years of gradual decline such that declines may outnumber increases without negative effect. For any given population size, those populations living in large streams or in ponds had significantly higher variance than did populations of completely terrestrial or other stream-dwelling amphibians. This could not be related to life-history complexity as all the stream-breeding species examined have larvae and all of the wholly terrestrial species have direct development without a larval stage. Variance in ΔN was highest amongst the smallest populations in each comparison group. Estimated local extinction rates averaged 3.1% among pond-breeding frogs, 2.2% for pond-breeding salamanders, and negligible for both stream-breeding and terrestrial direct-developing species. Recoveries slightly exceeded extinctions among European pond-breeding frogs but not among North American pond-breeding frogs. Less common species had greater negative disparities between extinctions and recoveries. Species with highly fluctuating populations and high frequencies of local extinctions living in changeable environments, such pond- and torrent-breeding amphibians, may be especially susceptible to curtailment of dispersal and restriction of habitat.     

Interspecific hybridisation between alien and native plant species in Germany and its consequences for native biodiversity

We explored the extent of interspecific hybridisation between alien and native plant species in Germany with a special focus on the potential threat for native biodiversity. In total we listed 134 hybrids which are interpreted as products of hybridisation between 81 alien and 109 native plant species (including 13 archeophytes) that occur in Germany. Seventy-five of these hybrids have been recorded in Germany, while the remaining 59 hybrids have not been detected in Germany yet, although both parental species currently occur in Germany. Interspecific hybridisation between abundant alien and rare native species can threaten populations of the native species through outbreeding depression and/or through high rates of gene flow swamping native populations. We identified 37 threatened native plant species which hybridise with aliens. Seventeen of these threatened plant species may suffer from outbreeding depression when hybridising with a more abundant alien invader (minority disadvantage). Using hybrid abundance as an indicator of hybrid fitness we argue that introgression of alien genes may affect the gene pool of eight threatened native plant species. Consequently, hybridisation with aliens has to be considered as an additional risk potentially leading to a loss of biodiversity and should be included in the repertoire of causes for rare species extinction in German Red Lists of threatened plant species.