Factors affecting the spatio-temporal dispersion of Ips typographus (L.) in Bavarian Forest National Park: A long-term quantitative landscape-level analysis

The relationship between abiotic and biotic factors and the spread of the European spruce bark beetle, Ips typographus (L.), was investigated at a landscape level over a model period of 18 years in the Bavarian Forest National Park in Germany. Deadwood areas - where I. typographus - caused tree mortality of 100% - were photographed annually using Color-infrared aerial photography and digitally recorded in vector form. Thirty-two static and dynamic habitat variables were quantitatively determined using spatial pattern analysis and geostatistics from 1990 to 2007 at the landscape scale. The importance of the presence of deadwood areas for thirty-two habitat variables for the occurrence of the bark beetle was quantitatively recorded using an Ecological Niche Factor Analysis (ENFA).It was shown over a long model period that the intensity of the bark beetle infestation went through different phases over the 18-year study period. No mono-causal correlations could be found between individual habitat factors and the spread of the bark beetle over the entire model period. On the one hand, these findings underline the complexity of the system, on the other hand, this could be interpreted as a possible explanation for conclusions drawn by previous studies that differ from each other.The importance of individual habitat variables and the combinations of variables varied to different extents within these phases. An examination of the cumulative importance of the habitat demonstrated that the biological structural variables such as the distance from the site of the previous year's infestation, the area and the perimeter of the infested areas from the previous year are of great importance for the incidence of the bark beetle, but not across all years. Of equal significance for assessing the size of the area and the distance of the deadwood areas from the sites of the previous year's infestation are the size of the areas, the perimeter of the deadwood areas and the proximity index. An evaluation of the stages of forest succession showed that cumulatively, a short distance between the infested areas and the forest areas with conifers in the early stages of growth was an equally important habitat factor from 1990 to 2007. By quantitatively recording habitat factors that are significant for the spread of the bark beetle it may help predict areas that are at risk and thus to develop suitable management strategies to minimise or stop the spread and the effect of the bark beetle.     

Projecting Distribution of the Overwintering Population of Sogatella furcifera (Hemiptera: Delphacidae), in Yunnan,China With Analysis on Key Influencing Climatic Factors

Sogatella furcifera (Horváth) is the most threatening migratory rice pest in Yunnan, China. S. furcifera overwinters in low- altitude basins and valleys in southern Yunnan and migrates northward in spring and summer of the following year, causing serious damage during migration. The overwintering distribution, areas, and spatial pattern of S. furcifera are relevant to the migration and outbreak of this pest. Based on a 4-yr field survey (2010–2013), this study projected areas suitable for S. furcifera to overwinter using a species distribution model, and analyzed the key influencing climatic factors using principal component analysis (PCA) and ecological niche factor analysis (ENFA). Our field survey showed that the northern latitudinal- and upper elevation limits of overwintering S. furcifera was 25.4° N and 1,608 m in western Yunnan and 24.2° N and 1,563 m in eastern Yunnan. The species distribution model produced a fragmented distribution pattern, with most of which in western Yunnan and only a few in eastern Yunnan. The PCA and ENFA analyses showed that the mean temperature of the driest quarter and the precipitation of the coldest quarter significantly influenced the distribution of S. furcifera in winter. The results suggested that the complex topography, spatial differences in winter temperatures, and host availability altogether determined the distribution of overwintering S. furcifera . Compared with previous surveys, the northern latitudinal- and upper elevation limits of overwintering S. furcifera were higher, while the population became rarer in some suitable areas due to change of farmland utilization in winter and possibly climate change.     

基于生态位模型的番荔枝实蝇潜在适生性分布预测(英文)

番荔枝实蝇Ceratitis anonae(Graham)是一种重要的外来入侵性检疫害虫。在广东口岸,其幼虫连续从入境旅客所携带的水果中被检出。目前关于番荔枝实蝇潜在适生性分布的研究进行得很少,但对于我国的生物生态安全却有重要意义。本研究中,我们使用3种生态位模型(ENFA模型,马氏典型性模型和Maxent模型)对番荔枝实蝇在中国以及全球范围内的潜在适生性分布区域进行了预测分析。结果显示:Maxent模型拥有最好的预测精确度,马氏典型性模型次之,而ENFA模型的预测精确度最差;Maxent模型和马氏典型性模型的预测精确度无显著性差异;根据Maxent模型的预测结果,番荔枝实蝇在中国的潜在适生区主要是广西、广东、海南以及云南的少部分地区。分析结果显示,番荔枝实蝇从境外传入中国南部地区并最终在上述地区定殖的风险可能性存在,但风险较小。另外,折刀法(Jackknife)分析显示,6种环境因子,例如地面霜冻频率、年平均降雨量、十月降雨量、四月降雨量、年最低温度以及蒸气压,对于番荔枝实蝇在全球和局部地区的分布模式有显著的影响。     

Are threatened lichen species well-protected in Spain? Effectiveness of a protected areas network

Several modelling species distribution studies have been developed, in last years, though mainly applied in higher plants, mammals or birds. However, little is known about overlooked taxa like lichens. We have evaluated the potential distribution of eleven threatened lichens in Spain and how the Natura 2000 network contributes to protect them. To overcome difficulties related to the lack of systematic surveys in those poorly known species we used only-presence data by means of ENFA (ecological-niche factor analysis). Then, we used ENFA to model the environmental niche of each species and to obtain the habitat suitability maps. In order to test the effectiveness of the Natura 2000 network, the habitat high suitability map for all species was overlapped with the network map. Our results show that all species considered present habitats requirements different from the average conditions of Spain, although clear differences exist among the species. That is, Peltigera elisabethae shows an extremely narrow niche, whereas Peltigera neckeri presents the highest ecological breadth. High temperature and long drought periods are the variables which restrict more the occurrence of these species. So, all species appear mainly confined to well-conserved forest and mountain ranges where these variables are dimmed. This mainly occurs in the oceanic northern fringe and in the higher Mediterranean mountains. In relation to the success of the Natura 2000 network, our results show that the capability of this network to protect key habitats for these species seem to be guarantied, probably because most reserves appear in mountainous areas in Spain. Evaluation of reserve network effectiveness needs the use of this type of gap analysis and especially the inclusion of ‘not charismatic’ organisms such as lichens.     

Habitat suitability, threats and conservation of isolated populations of the smooth snake (Coronella austriaca) in the southern Iberian Peninsula

During the Pleistocene, climatic fluctuations due to glacial and interglacial periods greatly modified the distribution of boreal organisms. One direct effect of these distribution shifts is that, along the southern edge of the range of some boreal species, populations persist only in isolated patches of suitable habitats, surrounded by less suitable areas. Isolated populations in marginal habitat are vulnerable to several threats, including climate change, anthropogenic threats, and stochastic events. We developed habitat-suitability models using Ecological Niche Factor Analysis for populations of the smooth snake, Coronella austriaca, at the southernmost limit of the species range. These models were based on historical and current records of occurrence, coupled with remote sensing data including elevation, slope, and climatic variables. Our results indicated that C. austriaca in the Iberian Peninsula occurred in areas associated with high slope and precipitation, low temperatures, and low variation in seasonal temperature and precipitation compared to areas of non-occurrence. At a broad scale, the areas classified as highly suitable for the species in the southern Iberian Peninsula were small and fragmented. At a local scale, extensive field work demonstrated that C. austriaca occurs in low densities in these areas. In addition, we detected several human-induced threats like habitat loss, favoured by temperature increase and rainfall reduction. Several life-history traits, such as dietary specialization and low frequency reproduction, also may contribute to the vulnerability of these populations to local extinctions. Although the most suitable southernmost areas are included in protected reserves, specific guidelines for management are needed to assess conservation needs.     

Spatial distribution and habitat selection of culicoides imicola: The potential vector of bluetongue virus in Tunisia

The increasing threat of vector-borne diseases (VBDs) represents a great challenge to those who manage public and animal health. Determining the spatial distribution of arthropod vector species is an essential step in studying the risk of transmission of a vector-borne pathogen (VBP) and in estimating risk levels of VBD. Risk maps allow better targeting surveillance and help in designing control measures. We aimed to study the geographical distribution of Culicoides imicola, the main competent vector of Bluetongue virus (BTV) in sheep in Tunisia. Fifty-three records covering the whole distribution range of C.imicola in Tunisia were obtained during a 2-year field entomological survey (August 2017 – January 2018 and August 2018 – January 2019). The ecological niche of C. imicola is described using ecological-niche factor analysis (ENFA) and Mahalanobis distances factor analysis (MADIFA). An environmental suitability map (ESM) was developed by MaxEnt software to map the optimal habitat under the current climate background. The MaxEnt model was highly accurate with a statistically significant area under curve (AUC) value of 0.941. The location of the potential distribution of C. imicola is predicted in specified regions of Tunisia. Our findings can be applied in various ways such as surveillance and control program of BTV in Tunisia.