基于格网的GCM数据修订分析未来海南岛农业水热资源的变化特征

以海南岛为研究区域，选用5个大气环流模式（GCMs）1970−1999年的逐日输出数据和同期地面气象观测数据，使用空间插值降尺度到0.5°×0.5°格网。以格网单元为基础，应用系统误差修订（修正值法或比值法）和多模式集合平均方法（贝叶斯模型平均法BMA或等权重平均法EW），训练与验证GCMs输出值并进行综合修订。在此基础上，分析RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下，未来海南岛近期（2020−2059年）和远期（2060−2099年）农业水热资源，包括年平均气温、1月平均气温、≥10℃积温、≥20℃积温、年降水量、1月降水量和≥20℃界限温度生长期间降水量的变化特征。结果表明：GCMs输出值的系统误差和BMA权重系数在格网间存在较大的空间差异，且GCMs输出值低估逐日最高气温约3.55℃，高估逐日最低气温约1.19℃，逐日降水量仅为观测值的54.35%。基于格网的综合修订，可有效降低GCMs输出值在空间上的不确定性，BMA与EW的修订结果相似，均优于单一GCM模式。通过格网BMA综合修订后，最高气温、最低气温和降水量在验证期的相关系数r分别约提升0.10、0.07和0.06；均方根误差RMSE分别约降低2.38℃、1.01℃和1.01mm；较单一GCM相对观测值的偏差平均约减少3.25℃、1.13℃和25.67mm。未来海南岛农业热量资源在空间上主要表现为从中部向外围逐渐升高，高温主要分布在南部至西部沿海地区，年平均气温的增幅全岛较为接近，1月平均气温、≥10℃积温和≥20℃积温的增幅分别表现为由东向西、由北向南和由中部向外围递减。在时间上，RCP8.5情景下所有农业热量资源均为极显著增加且增温最快，RCP4.5情景为先增加后平缓，RCP2.6情景较为平缓，远期无显著增温。未来海南岛降水资源在空间上转为由东向西逐步递减的格局，南部和北部沿海地区降水变率增加，西部和中部降水变率减少，在时间上无显著变化趋势。随着未来海南岛气候变暖和降水格局的改变，农作物适宜种植面积扩大，会对农业生产带来巨大挑战，应提前布局，做好趋利避害。     

Exogenous application of allelopathic water extracts helps improving tolerance against terminal heat and drought stresses in bread wheat (Triticum aestivum L. Em. Thell.)

The allelopathic water extracts (AWEs) may help improve the tolerance of crop plants against abiotic stresses owing to the presence of the secondary metabolites (i.e., allelochemicals). We conducted four independent experiments to evaluate the influence of exogenous application of AWEs (applied through seed priming or foliage spray) in improving the terminal heat and drought tolerance in bread wheat. In all the experiments, two wheat cultivars, viz. Mairaj‐2008 (drought and heat tolerant) and Faisalabad‐2008 (drought and heat sensitive), were raised in pots. Both wheat cultivars were raised under ambient conditions in the wire house till leaf boot stage (booting) by maintaining the pots at 75% water‐holding capacity (WHC). Then, managed drought and heat stresses were imposed by maintaining the pots at 35% WHC, or shifting the pots inside the glass canopies (at 75% WHC), at booting, anthesis and the grain filling stages. Drought stress reduced the grain yield of wheat by 39%–49%. Foliar application of AWEs improved the grain yield of wheat by 26%–31%, while seed priming with AWEs improved the grain yield by 18%–26%, respectively, than drought stress. Terminal heat stress reduced the grain yield of wheat by 38%. Seed priming with AWEs improved the grain yield by 21%–27%; while foliar application of AWEs improved the grain yield by 25%–29% than the heat stress treatment. In conclusion, the exogenous application of AWEs improved the stay green, accumulation of proline, soluble phenolics and glycine betaine, which helped to stabilize the biological membranes and improved the tolerance against terminal drought and heat stresses.     

Comparing the behavioural thermoregulation response to heat stress by Atlantic salmon parr (Salmo salar) in two rivers

Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and magnitude of extreme thermal events in rivers. The Little Southwest Miramichi River (LSWM) and the Ouelle River (OR) are two Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) rivers located in eastern Canada, where in recent years, water temperatures have exceeded known thermal limits (~23°C). Once temperature surpasses this threshold, juvenile salmon exploit thermal heterogeneity to behaviourally thermoregulate, forming aggregations in coolwater refuges. This study aimed to determine whether the behavioural thermoregulation response is universal across rivers, arising from common thermal cues. We detailed the temperature and discharge patterns of two geographically distinct rivers from 2010 to 2012 and compared these with aggregation onset temperature. PIT telemetry and snorkelling were used to confirm the presence of aggregations. Mean daily maximum temperature in 2010 was significantly greater in the OR versus the LSWM (p = 0.005), but not in other years (p = 0.090–0.353). Aggregations occurred on 14 and 9 occasions in the OR and LSWM respectively. Temperature at onset of aggregation was significantly greater in the OR (T_onset = 28.3°C) than in the LSWM (T_onset = 27.3°C; p = 0.049). Logistic regression models varied by river and were able to predict the probability of aggregation based on the preceding number of hours >23°C (R² = 0.61 & 0.65; P₅₀ = 27.4°C & 28.9°C; in the OR and LSWM respectively). These results imply the preceding local thermal regime may influence behaviour and indicate a degree of phenotypic plasticity, illustrating a need for localised management strategies.     

Effect of chlorogenic acid on intestinal inflammation,antioxidant status,and microbial community of young hens challenged with acute heat stress

Heat stress in poultry is deleterious to productive performance. Chlorogenic acid (CGA) exerts antibacterial, anti-inflammatory, and antioxidant properties. This study was conducted to evaluate the effects of dietary supplemental CGA on the intestinal health and cecal microbiota composition of young hens challenged with acute heat stress. 100-day-old Hy-line brown pullets were randomly divided into four groups. The control group (C) and heat stress group (HS) received a basal diet. HS + CGA₃₀₀ group and HS + CGA₆₀₀ group received a basal diet supplemented with 300- and 600-mg/kg CGA, respectively, for 2 weeks before heat stress exposure. Pullets of HS, HS + CGA₃₀₀, and HS + CGA₆₀₀ group were exposed to 38°C for 4 h while the control group was maintained at 25°C. In this study, dietary CGA supplementation had effect on mitigate the decreased T-AOC and T-SOD activities and the increasing of IL-1β and TNFα induced by acute heat stress. Dietary supplementation with 600 mg/kg CGA had better effect on increasing the relative abundance of beneficial bacterial genera, such as Rikenellaceae RC9_gut_group, Ruminococcaceae UCG-005, and Christensenellaceae R-7_group, and deceasing bacteria genera involved in inflammation, such as Sutterella species. Therefore, CGA can ameliorate acute heat stress damage through suppressing inflammation and improved antioxidant capacity and cecal microbiota composition.     

水平连续铸钢凝固过程数值模拟

本文在分析水平连铸传热特征的基础上，给出了一维情况下，计算结晶器出口处铸坯凝固层厚度的解析式，建立了计及轴向传热的连续坯凝固模拟模型。进行了连续坯二维传热的凝固数值模拟，其模拟结果与实验结果吻合较好，具有普遍应用价值。     

烘丝温度和时间对生丝机械性能的影响

从刚落下的丝片上摇取小绞丝,分别在25—180℃和30、60、90min下进行干热处理后,测定其机械性能。结果表明:在90—100℃、30—60分钟时,生丝的强伸力、初始模量以及抱合等机械性能都较好,烘丝温度太高,时间太长都会对生丝机械性能产生不良的影响。     

金属热防护系统多层隔热材料的传热分析及参数优化

采用能量平衡方程和离散坐标法近似地建立了金属热防护系统多层隔热材料的一维稳态传热的数学模型，并利用遗传算法和纤维隔热材料的有效导热系数试验数据求解传热反问题，从而得到了模型中的纤维隔热材料的辐射衰减系数、反照率和隔热屏表面辐射发射系数。最后，由实验测得了多层隔热材料的有效导热系数，验证了采用优化参数后，多层隔热材料的传热模型的正确性。     

Multi-sectoral Participatory Urban Forestry Development in Philippines Metropolitan Manila

The Luntiang Kamaynilaan Project (Metro ManilaGreening Project) launched in 1988 planted trees inmajor thoroughfares, center islands, school premisesand other idle public lands, was basically a governmenteffort. When the funds ran out, the project also fizzledout. In both projects however, it is evident that the keyfactor is peoples participation.Gaining lessons from the past two projects, thegovernment established a collaborative effort ofgovernment and non-government organizations. TheCl…     

37 ℃持续热应激肉鸡血气改变的动态分析

80只25日龄雄性AA肉鸡,随机分为对照组(21～24 ℃,相对湿度50%±5%)和试验组(37 ℃±0.5 ℃,相对湿度70%±5%),自由采食和饮水.在12 d的试验期间,动态检测血气指标、呼吸频率、直肠温度和生产性能的变化.结果显示热暴露初期呈现代偿性呼吸性碱中毒,其特点为动脉血二氧化碳分压(3.82±0.36)降低,pH(7.48±0.04)升高;中期呈现失代偿性代谢性酸中毒,其特点为血浆HCO-3浓度(19.00±2.55)降低,pH(7.37±0.06)显著下降(P＜0.05);后期酸碱平衡趋于正常.热应激后,肉鸡日增重和日采食量极显著下降(P＜0.01)、料肉比极显著升高(P＜0.01);呼吸频率极显著升高(P＜0.01);热暴露第1、5、7、9和12天体温极显著升高(P＜0.01).动脉血氧分压与呼吸频率呈极显著负相关(P＜0.01),与体温呈显著负相关(P＜0.05);血氧饱和度与体温极显著负相关(P＜0.01).表明37 ℃持续热应激的肉鸡呈现由代偿性呼吸性碱中毒转变为失代偿性代谢性酸中毒,最后趋于正常的动态变化过程.