东海区小黄鱼繁殖模型优化选择及其管理应用研究

根据 1999-2008 年东海区渔业资源底拖网大面定点调查获取的小黄鱼(Larimichthys polyactis)渔业生物学资料,利用AIC(Akaike Information Criterion)与BIC(Bayesian Information Criterion),对小黄鱼的Ricker、Beverton-Holt和Cushing繁殖模型进行了拟合优度检验.针对选择的繁殖模型,经单因子相关分析和逐步回归分析,筛选对繁殖模型有重要影响的环境因子,经模型的拟合和检验,确定东海区小黄鱼的适用繁殖模型.结果表明:3种繁殖模型中,Ricker繁殖模型更适合模拟小黄鱼亲体与补充量关系,但吕泗渔场海域3-4月平均海水表温、7月海水表温和5月长江径流量、7-8月长江平均径流量以及当年夏季风速对模型中的补充量有着重要的影响;优化后的Ricker繁殖模型不仅可以提高东海区小黄鱼亲鱼量与补充量的拟合精度,而且可参考该模型修正当年度小黄鱼的资源管理目标,提高资源管理的科学性.     

Finding the appropriate level of complexity for a simulation model: An example with a forest growth model

The topic of model complexity is fundamental to model developers and model users. In this study, we investigate how over- and under-fitting of a driving function in a simulation model influences the predictive ability of the model. Secondly, we investigate whether model selection approaches succeed in selecting driving functions with the best predictive ability. We address these issues through an example with the forest simulator SORTIE-ND. Utilizing maximum likelihood methods and individual tree growth data we parameterize five growth functions of increasing complexity. We then incorporate each growth function into the simulation model SORTIE-ND and test predicted growth against independent data. Compared to the independent data, the simplest and the most complex growth functions had the poorest predictive ability while functions of intermediate complexity had the best predictive ability. The poor predictive ability of the simplest model is caused by poor approximation of the system while the poor predictive ability of the most complex model is caused by biased parameter estimates. A growth function of intermediate complexity was the most parsimonious model where error due to approximation and error due to estimation were simultaneously minimized. The model selection criteria AIC and BIC were found to select complex functions that were over-fitted according to the independent data comparison. BIC was closer to choosing the model that minimized prediction error than AIC. In this example, BIC is the more appropriate model selection criterion. It is important that both model developers and models users remember that more complex models do not always result in better predictive models.     

MoTlg2, a t-SNARE component is important for formation of the Spitzenkörper and polar deposition of chitin in Magnaporthe oryzae

T-SNAREs are a family of conserved proteins involved in intracellular transport of membrane-coated cargo among subcellular compartments. In this study, we identified a putative t-SNARE gene, MoTLG2, in Magnaporthe oryzae via insertion mutagenesis. Deletion of MoTLG2 resulted in slower vegetative growth and less conidiation relative to the wild-type strain, but the ΔMotlg2 null mutant was as virulent as the wild-type strain. MoTlg2 has 30% overall amino acid identity with Saccharomyces cerevisiae Tlg2, and rescued the defect of monensin de-sensitivity in the yeast strain where TLG2 had been deleted. More importantly, apical regions of the hyphae of the ΔMotlg2 null mutant were only weakly stained by FM4-64, which was reported as an excellent vesicle tracer, suggesting that the Spitzenkörper was not well formed in the ΔMotlg2 null mutant. In addition, more uneven lateral deposition of chitin was observed in the cell wall of vegetative hyphae of the ΔMotlg2 null mutant. Taken together, this study shows that the t-SNARE Tlg2 is important for both vegetative hyphal growth and conidiation, but dispensable for plant infection in filamentous fungi, and suggests that Tlg2 is important for formation of the Spitzenkörper and polar distribution of chitin.     

环境因子对黄海鳀鱼亲体-补充量关系影响的初步研究

鱼类年际资源量的波动可以归因于年间环境条件的变化和该种鱼类亲体数量的变化。文章根据1990～2001年间黄海中南部鳀鱼声学调查评估结果,以及黄海千里岩海区在此年间的表层水温和营养盐统计数据,以Ricker模型（R=αSe^-βS）为基础对黄海鳀鱼（Engraulis japonicas）亲体-补充量关系进行了初步研究。结果表明,黄海千里岩水域表层水温、磷酸盐浓度等环境条件因素对补充量有重要影响。