莫莫格湿地干-湿界面优势植物种群动态分析

莫莫格湿地从高河漫滩底端到顶端选取有代表性的植物群落片断作为固定观测样带,并设置6个观测样方,生长季5月、7月、9月3次观测结果表明,小叶章优势种群5月份密度最高达1154-1594株/平方米,7月种群数量下降,9月有所升高;踏头苔草优势种群5-7月份密度在3 414-7 193株/平方米,9月份种群数量大幅度下降;土壤相对含水量低地段小叶章种群相对优势度大,土壤相对含水量高地段踏头苔草种群相对优势度大,局部地段生长季内有相对优势度相互替代过程,莫莫格湿地干-湿界面上小叶章和踏头苔草两个种群可以共存。     

Modelling land cover transitions: A solution to the problem of spatial dependence in data

Raster-based spatial land cover transition models (LCTMs) are widely used in landscape ecology. However, many LCTMs do not account for spatial dependence of the input data, which may artificially fragment the output spatial configuration. We demonstrate the consequences of ignoring spatial dependence, thus assigning probabilities randomly in space, using a simple LCTM. We ran the model from four different initial conditions with distinct spatial configurations and results indicated that, after 20 simulation steps, all of them converged towards the spatial configuration of the random data set. From an ecological perspective this is a serious problem because ecological data often exhibit distinct spatial configuration related to ecological processes. As a solution, we propose an approach (region approach) that accounts for spatial dependence of LCTM input data. Underlying spatial dependence was used to apply spatial bias to probability assignment within the model. As a case study we applied a region approach to a Vegetation Transition Model (VTM); a semi-Markovian model that simulates forest succession. The VTM was applied to approximately 500,000 ha of boreal forest in Ontario, at 1 ha pixel resolution. When the stochastic transition algorithms were applied without accounting for spatial dependence, spatial configuration of the output data became progressively more fragmented. When the VTM was applied using the region approach to account for spatial dependence output fragmentation was reduced. Accounting for spatial dependence in transition models will create more reliable output for analyzing spatial patterns and relating those patterns to ecological processes.This revised version was published online in May 2005 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Economics of foliar fungicides for hard red winter wheat in the USA southern Great Plains

Grain yields of winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) in the southern Great Plains are often reduced by the presence of foliar diseases. This study was conducted to determine whether the application of foliar fungicides is an economically optimal management strategy. The effects of fungicide treatment on commercially available hard red winter wheat varieties with differing levels of genetic resistance (i.e., resistant, intermediate, and susceptible) to foliar diseases were investigated at two locations, Apache and Lahoma, OK, USA, for the harvest years 2005–2012. Two fungicides were rotated between the two locations and applied at approximately Feekes growth stage 9–10.5. When averaged across years, plots to which fungicide was applied generated greater average net returns than plots that did not receive fungicide for susceptible varieties at Apache, and for resistant, intermediate, and susceptible varieties at Lahoma. However, foliar fungicide application was not economical in every year at either location suggesting fungicide use should be reassessed each year given that profitability depends on year specific yield potential, prices, and foliar disease conditions. At both locations high disease incidence occurred in all but one site-year when the average March through May relative humidity exceeded 65%. Additional research would be required to determine the relationship between weather, including relative humidity, and disease incidence, and to develop an economic threshold for treatment decision aid.     

Economic performance and comparative riskiness of different management practices for control of botrytis fruit rot in florida strawberry

Florida strawberry farmers usually rely on weekly calendar fungicide applications to prevent yield loss from Botrytis fruit rot (BFR). The Strawberry Advisory System (SAS), which helps optimize the timing of fungicide applications, is an additional tool in the farmers' arsenal of disease control options. This study uses data from two-year production trials in Florida combined with historical strawberry prices to measure the economic performance of the Calendar and SAS-based BFR management practices under output price risk and producers' risk preferences. We use Monte Carlo simulation to model the effect of the variability in weekly output prices on farm returns. Results reveal that the traditional calendar-based system is not the least risky BFR management option as growers expected to be. SAS-based options such as SAS-Switch and SAS-Luna would be preferred by both risk-neutral and risk-averse producers and are recommended under high disease pressure conditions.     

基于Markov随机场的猪肉糜微结构图像模拟

利用Markov随机场和Gibbs分布理论，建立了猪肉糜微结构图像的随机场模型，然后通过迭代方法，对不同微结构的猪肉糜图像进行了随机模拟，同时对随机模拟图像和原始图像作了对比分析。糜状食品物料微观结构图像的分析和模拟是定研究其微结构模式形态对流变特性影响的关键问题。通过从已知流变特性反演糜状食品物料微结构的几何形态，可以更深入地探讨、研究微结构形成的动力学机制和过程，进而沟通流变特性和微结构形态之间的联系，从而为定量描述糜状食品物料的流变特性提供了条件。     

由地铁隧道工程引起地表横向沉降的预测分析

应用Peck法、Logan-Poulous法、随机介质理论等方法对由地铁隧道工程引起的地表横向沉降进行预测,并对上述方法的实质加以研究。用STS沉降预测系统对实测数据进行分析和计算,并通过实测曲线和预测曲线的比对分析,验证上述方法的预测精确性。     

1985—2015年中国县域芝麻生产的时空演变

为阐明我国芝麻生产的时空变化特征,基于1985—2015年的我国县域芝麻生产统计数据,采用集中度、重心迁移、产量贡献率、优势度等指标,对我国芝麻种植面积、产量和单产的时空动态变化进行分析。结果表明:1)1985—2015年,我国芝麻产量和面积的分布基本一致,主要集中在大别山山脉一带和辽宁省西北部;全国芝麻单产水平不断提升,种植面积自2000年起小幅缩减,而产量变化处于明显的波动状态。2)30年间,全国芝麻产量集中度和面积集中度变化波动较小,集中地区分布发生了一定的变化;我国芝麻产量、面积重心同步向南偏西方向迁移,迁移距离分别为252和344 km。3)我国芝麻生产的主导因素一直为面积,占比为40.0%—49.9%;我国芝麻的生产优势区主要在河南、安徽、湖北、江西四省。近30年来,我国芝麻种植变化受其自身特性、病虫害、湿害以及政策等影响,芝麻生产受到一定的限制。因此,优化和调整我国芝麻生产的政策倾向、种植结构、良种研发以及栽培管理等方面尤显关键。     

塔里木河下游生态输水对植物群落数量特征的影响

结合2002-2004年对塔里木河下游生态输水过程中5个断面固定植物群落样地的调查,运用群落数量分析法,分析了塔里木河下游植物群落对生态输水的响应.结果表明:在生态输水过程中,植被覆盖度普遍增加,草本植物覆盖度的增长率高于乔木和灌木;各断面乔木和草本植物的综合优势比普遍增加,但优势种的优势地位并没有改变,群落的类型没有变化;在整个研究区,物种的丰富度与均匀度仍很低.为提高输水生态效应,提出河道输水与面上供水相结合的输水方法和建立人工植被等建议.     

耕地细碎化、耕地质量认知与化肥施用效率 ——基于湖北省水稻种植户的调查数据

在中国倡导农业农村绿色发展的大背景下,化肥投入的政策导向逐渐由增量增产转变为减量增效,如何提高化肥施用效率成为当前重点关注的问题。本文依据湖北省水稻种植户微观调查数据,运用随机前沿法测算水稻种植户化肥施用效率,并在此基础上运用CLAD模型进一步分析耕地细碎化程度与耕地质量认知对化肥施用效率的影响。结果表明:当前水稻种植户化肥施用效率仅为63.85%,若完全消除效率损失,化肥施用效率仍有36.15%的提升空间;耕地细碎化程度显著降低了化肥施用效率,可能与农户的避险行为有关;耕地质量认知显著促进了化肥施用效率提升,说明农户对耕地质量的科学认识能够改善化肥施用效率。因此,提出加快耕地整合与耕地连片经营法律法规建设,加速耕地细碎化治理经验与创新结合,加强引导农户对化肥施用的正确认知,推行科学种植生产模式以提升化肥施用效率的政策建议。     

Alternating dominance of postlarval sardine and anchovy caught by coastal fishery in relation to the Kuroshio meander in the Enshu-nada Sea

In the mid 1970s, the fishery catch of postlarval Japanese anchovy (Engraulis japonica) in a shelf region of the Enshu‐nada Sea, off the central Pacific coast of Japan, started to decline corresponding to a rapid increase of postlarval sardine (Sardinops melanostictus). In late 1980s, sardine started to decline, and it was replaced by anchovy in the 1990s. This alternating dominance of postlarval sardine and anchovy corresponded to the alternation in egg abundance of these two species in the spawning habitat of this sea. It was also noteworthy that during the period of sardine decline, sardine spawning occurred in April–May, a delay of two months compared with spawning in the late 1970s. The implication of oceanographic changes in the spawning habitat for the alternating dominance of sardine and anchovy eggs was explored using time‐series data obtained in 1975–1998, focusing on the effect of the Kuroshio meander. Large meanders of the Kuroshio may have enhanced the onshore intrusion of the warm water into the shelf region and contributed to an increase in temperature in the spawning habitat. This might favour sardine, because its egg abundance in the shelf region was more dependent on the temperature in early spring than was that of anchovy. In addition, enhanced onshore intrusion could contribute to transport of sardine larvae from upstream spawning grounds of the Kuroshio region. On the other hand, anchovy egg abundance was more closely related to lower transparency at the shelf edge, which may indicate the prevalence and prolonged residence of the coastal water, and therefore higher food availability, frequently accompanying non‐meandering Kuroshio. The expansion/shrinkage of the spawning habitat of sardine and anchovy in the shelf region, apparently responding to the change in the Kuroshio, possibly makes the alternation in dominance of postlarval sardine and anchovy most prominent in the Enshu‐nada Sea, in combination with changes in the abundance of spawning adults, which occurred almost simultaneously in the overall Kuroshio region. The implication of this rather regional feature for the alternating dominance of sardine and anchovy populations on a larger spatial scale is also discussed.