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1.
以海南岛为研究区域,选用5个大气环流模式(GCMs)1970−1999年的逐日输出数据和同期地面气象观测数据,使用空间插值降尺度到0.5°×0.5°格网。以格网单元为基础,应用系统误差修订(修正值法或比值法)和多模式集合平均方法(贝叶斯模型平均法BMA或等权重平均法EW),训练与验证GCMs输出值并进行综合修订。在此基础上,分析RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下,未来海南岛近期(2020−2059年)和远期(2060−2099年)农业水热资源,包括年平均气温、1月平均气温、≥10℃积温、≥20℃积温、年降水量、1月降水量和≥20℃界限温度生长期间降水量的变化特征。结果表明:GCMs输出值的系统误差和BMA权重系数在格网间存在较大的空间差异,且GCMs输出值低估逐日最高气温约3.55℃,高估逐日最低气温约1.19℃,逐日降水量仅为观测值的54.35%。基于格网的综合修订,可有效降低GCMs输出值在空间上的不确定性,BMA与EW的修订结果相似,均优于单一GCM模式。通过格网BMA综合修订后,最高气温、最低气温和降水量在验证期的相关系数r分别约提升0.10、0.07和0.06;均方根误差RMSE分别约降低2.38℃、1.01℃和1.01mm;较单一GCM相对观测值的偏差平均约减少3.25℃、1.13℃和25.67mm。未来海南岛农业热量资源在空间上主要表现为从中部向外围逐渐升高,高温主要分布在南部至西部沿海地区,年平均气温的增幅全岛较为接近,1月平均气温、≥10℃积温和≥20℃积温的增幅分别表现为由东向西、由北向南和由中部向外围递减。在时间上,RCP8.5情景下所有农业热量资源均为极显著增加且增温最快,RCP4.5情景为先增加后平缓,RCP2.6情景较为平缓,远期无显著增温。未来海南岛降水资源在空间上转为由东向西逐步递减的格局,南部和北部沿海地区降水变率增加,西部和中部降水变率减少,在时间上无显著变化趋势。随着未来海南岛气候变暖和降水格局的改变,农作物适宜种植面积扩大,会对农业生产带来巨大挑战,应提前布局,做好趋利避害。 相似文献
2.
Impact of grassland contract policy on soil organic carbon losses from alpine grassland on the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau
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J. Cao Y. Gong E. T. Yeh N. M. Holden J. F. Adamowski R. C. Deo M. Liu J. Zhou J. Zhang W. Zhang S. Zhang D. Sheng S. Yang X. Xu M. Li Q. Feng 《Soil Use and Management》2017,33(4):663-671
Carbon storage in the soils on the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau plays a very important role in the global carbon budget. In the 1990s, a policy of contracting collective grasslands to smaller units was implemented, resulting in a change from the traditional collective grassland management to two new management patterns: a multi‐household management pattern (MMP: grassland shared by several households without enclosures) and a single‐household management pattern (SMP: grassland enclosed and used by only one household). In 2016, 50 MMP and 54 SMP winter pastures on the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau were sampled to assess the differences in soil organic carbon (SOC) between the two management patterns. Results showed that average SOC was significantly greater under MMP than under SMP, with an estimated 0.41 Mg C/ha/yr lost due to SMP following the new grassland contract. Based on the government's grassland policy, four grassland utilization scenarios were developed for both summer and winter pastures. We found that if the grassland were managed under SMP, likely C losses ranged between 0.31 × 107 and 6.15 × 107 Mg C/yr across the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau relative to MMP, which more closely resembles pre‐1990s grassland management. Previous estimates of C losses have only considered land use change (with cover change) and ignored the impacts driven by land management pattern changes (without cover change). The new data suggest that C losses from the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau are greater than previously estimated, and therefore that the grassland contract policy should be reviewed and SMP households should be encouraged to reunite into the MMP. These findings have potential implications for land management strategies not only on the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau but also other grazing regions globally where such practices may exist. 相似文献
3.
GENERALCoNDlTloNABoUTCLI-MATECHANGEINHElLoNGJIANGPRoVINCEDtlrlngthepasscdll)()}ears(l88l-l`)8(j)ors().tllctcndenc}'ofmcanairtc111pcraturcincrcasct\ithfluctuationcl11ergcdin\ariousrcglonsofHcllonViangproxincc.Airtcmpcra-turcinl98()s-rcachcdtl1emaxil11un1uithinthcpasscdll)()y'cars.Thisphcl1ol11enonaccordcd``iththctcndenc}'ofglobalclil11ate\"ar1ni11g.Thel11eanairtc111peralurcil1tl1creccl1tl()}car(l()8()-l()8`))incrcascdb}l).6"Cascom-pal-cd\`ltl1tl1atll1tl1clbrl11er3())'carsacc… 相似文献
4.
5.
INTRODUCTIONIntheworldoftoday,theglobalclimatechangeanditsinfluenceonecologyhavebe-comeaveryimportantproblem,towhichmanyscientists,governnentleadersandordinarypcoplepaycloseattentionI1-'].Inl979,theWorldClimateResearchProgram(WCP)waslaiddowninthefirstworldclimatemeeting.lnl99(),thesecondworldclimatemeetingwasconvcl1edinGencva,andalltl1eexpertsagreedthattheglobalwarmlngwillbeextremelyseriousdisasterthananynatUralcalamityever.Attl1eMectingof"WorldEnvironmentandDevelopment,"holdinBrazil… 相似文献
6.
Assessing the potential impacts of alternative landscape designs on amphibian population dynamics 总被引:2,自引:1,他引:2
An individual-based, spatially explicit population model was used to predict the consequences of future land-use alternatives for populations of four amphibian species in two central Iowa (midwest USA) agricultural watersheds. The model included both breeding and upland habitat and incorporated effects of climatic variation and demographic stochasticity. Data requirements of the model include life history characteristics, dispersal behavior, habitat affinities, as well as land use and landcover in geographic information systems databases. Future scenarios were ranked according to change in breeder abundance, saturation, and distribution, compared to baseline conditions. Sensitivity of simulation results to changes in model parameters was also examined. Simulated results suggest that while all four species modeled are likely to persist under present and future scenario conditions, two may be more at risk from future landscape change. Although the study species are all widespread generalists regarded as having a low conservation priority, they depend on wetlands and ponds, increasingly endangered habitats in agricultural landscapes. Broader conservation strategies in the region would ensure that these currently common organisms do not become the endangered species of the future.This revised version was published online in May 2005 with corrections to the Cover Date. 相似文献
7.
北京地区沙尘天气的气候特征分析 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
本文利用1954-2001年北京地区(20个气象站)逐月沙尘资料,重点对北京地区沙尘天气的空间分布特征、沙尘日数的年代变化规律、沙尘日数的月变化进行分析;分析了近三年北京地区出现沙尘天气特点及成因;同时对近48年的沙尘出现日数变化规律进行了小波分析。 相似文献
8.
为了积极应对气候变化,促进低碳经济发展,分析了当前应对气候变化立法方面的研究进展,认为尽管取得了一定进展,但现有法律既不能满足我国气候外交的需求,也不足以担当气候治理的重任,我国还缺乏系统性专门性的应对气候变化法律.为了应对气候变化的挑战,必须充分整合国内外应对气候变化立法方面的科技资源,以保证我国气候外交和气候治理战略的科学性. 相似文献
9.
Methane (CH4) is a potent greenhouse gas and the huge CH4 fluxes emitted from paddy fields can prejudice the eco-compatibility of rice cultivation. CH4 production in submerged rice crops is known to be highly influenced by water temperature. Hence, lowering ponding water temperature (LPWT) could be an option to mitigate CH4 emissions from paddy environments when it is possible either to irrigate with slightly colder water or to increase ponding water depth. However, paddy soil is a complex environment in which many processes are simultaneously influenced by temperature, leading to a difficult prediction of LPWT effects. For this reason, LPWT efficiency is here theoretically investigated with a one-dimensional process-based model that simulates the vertical and temporal dynamics of water temperature in soil and the fate of chemical compounds that influence CH4 emissions. The model is validated with literature measured data of CH4 emissions from a paddy field under time-variable temperature regime. Based on modeling results, LPWT appears promising since the simulated reduction of CH4 emissions reaches about −12% and −49% for an LPWT equal to −5 °C during the ripening stage only (last 30 days of growing season, when rice is less sensitive to temperature variations) and −2 °C over the whole growing season, respectively. LPWT affects CH4 emissions either directly (decreasing methanogenic activity), indirectly (decreasing activity of bacteria using alternative electron acceptors), or both. The encouraging results provide the theoretical ground for further laboratory and field studies aimed to investigate the LPWT feasibility in paddy environments. 相似文献
10.
Extreme droughts and heat waves due to climate change may have permanent consequences on soil quality and functioning in agroecosystems. During November 2010 to August 2011, the Southern High Plains (SHP) region of Texas, U.S., a large cotton producing area, received only 39.6 mm of precipitation (vs. the historical avg. of 373 mm) and experienced the hottest summer since record keeping began in 1911. Several enzyme activities (EAs) important in biogeochemical cycling were evaluated in two soils (a loam and a sandy loam at 0–10 cm) with a management history of monoculture (continuous cotton) or rotation (cotton and sorghum or millet). Samplings occurred under the most extreme drought and heat conditions (July 2011), after precipitation resulted in a reduction in a drought severity index (March 2012), and 12 months after the initial sampling (July 2012; loam only). Eight out of ten EAs, were significantly higher in July 2011 compared to March 2012 for some combinations of soil type and management history. Among these eight EAs, enzymes key to C (β-glucosidase, β-glucosaminidase) and P cycling (phosphodiesterase, acid and alkaline phosphatases) were significantly higher (19–79%) in July 2011 than in March 2012 for both management histories regardless of the soil type (P > 0.05). When comparing all sampling times, the activities of alkaline phosphatase, aspartase and urease (rotation only) showed this trend: July 2011 > March 2012 > July 2012. Activities of phosphodiesterase, acid phosphatase, α-galactosidase, β-glucosidase and β-glucosaminidase were higher in July 2011 than July 2012 in at least one of the two management histories. Total C was reduced significantly from July 2011 to March 2012 in the rotation for both soils. Only the activities of arylsulfatase (avg. 36%) and asparaginase showed an increase from July 2011 to March 2012 for both soil types, which may indicate they have a different origin/location than the other enzymes. EAs continued to be a fingerprint of the soil management history (i.e., higher EAs in the rotation than in monoculture) during the drought/heat wave. This study provided some of the first evidence of the adverse effects of a natural, extreme drought and heat wave on soil quality in agroecosystems as indicated by EAs involved in biogeochemical cycling. 相似文献