基于格网的GCM数据修订分析未来海南岛农业水热资源的变化特征

以海南岛为研究区域，选用5个大气环流模式（GCMs）1970−1999年的逐日输出数据和同期地面气象观测数据，使用空间插值降尺度到0.5°×0.5°格网。以格网单元为基础，应用系统误差修订（修正值法或比值法）和多模式集合平均方法（贝叶斯模型平均法BMA或等权重平均法EW），训练与验证GCMs输出值并进行综合修订。在此基础上，分析RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下，未来海南岛近期（2020−2059年）和远期（2060−2099年）农业水热资源，包括年平均气温、1月平均气温、≥10℃积温、≥20℃积温、年降水量、1月降水量和≥20℃界限温度生长期间降水量的变化特征。结果表明：GCMs输出值的系统误差和BMA权重系数在格网间存在较大的空间差异，且GCMs输出值低估逐日最高气温约3.55℃，高估逐日最低气温约1.19℃，逐日降水量仅为观测值的54.35%。基于格网的综合修订，可有效降低GCMs输出值在空间上的不确定性，BMA与EW的修订结果相似，均优于单一GCM模式。通过格网BMA综合修订后，最高气温、最低气温和降水量在验证期的相关系数r分别约提升0.10、0.07和0.06；均方根误差RMSE分别约降低2.38℃、1.01℃和1.01mm；较单一GCM相对观测值的偏差平均约减少3.25℃、1.13℃和25.67mm。未来海南岛农业热量资源在空间上主要表现为从中部向外围逐渐升高，高温主要分布在南部至西部沿海地区，年平均气温的增幅全岛较为接近，1月平均气温、≥10℃积温和≥20℃积温的增幅分别表现为由东向西、由北向南和由中部向外围递减。在时间上，RCP8.5情景下所有农业热量资源均为极显著增加且增温最快，RCP4.5情景为先增加后平缓，RCP2.6情景较为平缓，远期无显著增温。未来海南岛降水资源在空间上转为由东向西逐步递减的格局，南部和北部沿海地区降水变率增加，西部和中部降水变率减少，在时间上无显著变化趋势。随着未来海南岛气候变暖和降水格局的改变，农作物适宜种植面积扩大，会对农业生产带来巨大挑战，应提前布局，做好趋利避害。     

江西省数字农业发展现状、问题与建议

数字农业的发展对于农业现代化转型升级具有重要意义。根据江西省县域数字农业相关数据和文献资料,分析江西省数字农业发展现状,指出目前江西省数字农业发展存在数据服务配套不完善、小农户应用困难以及法律法规政策建设相对落后等问题,提出应加强数字农业信息服务支持力度、培育新型农业经营主体,以及强化政策顶层设计等建议。     

白云国家森林公园适老性评价及优化分析

指出了人口老龄化是社会发展的必然趋势,也是当前中国面临的重要社会问题之一,国家和地方各级政府出台了一系列政策,切实保障老年人的权益。森林公园除保护其范围内自然环境和自然资源外,为人们的游憩、疗养、避暑和文化娱乐等提供了良好的环境,逐渐成为老年人休闲娱乐生活的选择。选取浙江丽水白云国家森林公园为研究对象,通过实地踏查、问卷调查和随机访谈等方法,深入调查了老年人个人基本资料及背景、活动状况和使用情况,对3类典型空间和4类景观元素进行了详细地分析,针对不足之处提出了相应的优化建议,以期为相关公园绿地的适老性规划设计提供建设思路。     

基于距离相关系数和KNN回归模型的森林蓄积量估测研究

【目的】探究Landsat8 OLI数据和KNN算法在森林蓄积量估测中的潜力。【方法】以湖南省湘潭县为研究区,采用Landsat8 OLI数据和同时期的二类调查数据,通过距离相关系数筛选特征,分别采用线性回归模型(MLR)、K-近邻模型(KNN)、距离加权KNN模型(DW-KNN)和优化欧式KNN模型(FW-KNN)对森林蓄积量进行估测。使用十折交叉方法进行精度检验,对检验结果进行对比分析。【结果】3种KNN模型的估测结果均高于传统的线性模型,并且在3种KNN模型中,FW-KNN算法效果最好,决定系数达到0.69,为3种模型中最高;3种KNN模型中,本研究优化欧氏距离KNN模型的估测精度最高,其均方根误差为30.3%,相比于传统KNN模型的均方根误差降低了5.1%,相比于DW-KNN模型降低了3.3%。【结论】采用DW-KNN蓄积量估测结果明显优于其他两种模型,说明通过特征与蓄积量的相关性优化样本间的距离是一种可行的KNN优化方法。     

我国社会救助管理服务体系建设研究

我国社会救助体系不断完善的过程中涉及主体更多元、方式更多样。当前社会救助面临相关部门和组织多、信息复杂、经办分散、分类精准施救难度大等问题。基于我国社会救助模式的合理价值选择，提出管理服务体系建设的重要意义。进而分析社会救助在管理服务上面临的挑战和难题，从组织协调管理、信息网络系统、基层经办机构、社会参与机制四个方面提出构建多层次管理服务体系的思路。力求提高管理服务的效率和效能，促进互助共济社会救助共同体的形成，提升公众满意度，夯实我国民生保障基础。     

Large‐scale patterns of fish diversity and assemblage structure in the longest tropical river in Asia

Although the Mekong River is one of the world's 35 biodiversity hot spots, the large‐scale patterns of fish diversity and assemblage structure remain poorly addressed. This study aimed to investigate the fish distribution patterns in the Lower Mekong River (LMR) and to identify their environmental determinants. Daily fish catch data (i.e. from December 2000 to November 2001) at 38 sites distributed along the LMR were related to 15 physicochemical and 19 climatic variables. As a result, four different clusters were defined according to the similarity in assemblage composition and 80 indicator species were identified. While fish species richness was highest in the Mekong delta and lowest in the upper part of the LMR, the diversity index was highest in the middle part of the LMR and lowest in the delta. We found that fish assemblages changed along the environmental gradients and that the main drivers affecting the fish assemblage structure were the seasonal variation of temperature, precipitation, dissolved oxygen, pH and total phosphorus. Specifically, upstream assemblages were characterised by cyprinids and Pangasius catfish, well suited to low temperature, high dissolved oxygen and high pH. Fish assemblages in the delta were dominated by perch‐like fish and clupeids, more tolerant to high temperatures, and high levels of nutrients (nitrates and total phosphorus) and salinity. Overall, the patterns were consistent between seasons. Our study contributes to establishing the first holistic fish community study in the LMR.     

王正非林火蔓延模型改进研究

王正非林火蔓延模型是目前国内比较先进的森林火灾蔓延模型,但是由于林火行为的复杂性,此模型在准确率和普适性方面仍存在许多不足。本文结合已有的成果进一步改进王正非模型,增加了可燃物湿度对林火蔓延速度的影响,改进了林火初始速度的计算方式。针对各种坡度对林火蔓延行为的影响给出了一个计算公式。与改进前相比,改进后的模型使其对林火蔓延情况的预估更为精准。     

The economic benefits and costs of trees in urban forest stewardship: A systematic review

Understanding the benefits provided by urban trees is important to justify investment and improve stewardship. Many studies have attempted to quantify the benefits of trees in monetary terms, though fewer have quantified the associated costs of planting and maintaining them. This systematic review examines the methods used to jointly analyse the costs and benefits of trees in the urban landscape, assesses the relative balance of benefits and costs, and attempts to understand the wide variation in economic values assigned in different studies. The benefits most frequently studied are those related to environmental regulation and property values, and the available data show that these usually outweigh the costs. Aesthetic, amenity, and shading benefits have also been shown to provide significant economic benefits, while benefits in terms of water regulation, carbon reduction and air quality are usually more modest. Variation in benefits and costs among studies is attributed largely to differences in the species composition and age structure of urban tree populations, though methodological differences also play a role. Comparison between studies is made difficult owing to differences in spatiotemporal scope, and in the way urban forest composition and demographic structure were reported. The overwhelming majority of studies concern deciduous trees in Northern America, and much less is known about urban forests in other regions, especially in the tropics. Future work should thus seek to fill these knowledge gaps, and standardise research protocols across cities. In light of ambitious goals in many cities to increase tree cover, ongoing advances in valuation methods need to provide a more comprehensive accounting of benefits and costs, and to better integrate economic assessment into the decision-making process.     

基于森林健康理念的森林康养产业发展研究

阐述了森林健康理念和森林康养的基本概念,介绍了森林健康理念和森林康养的发展现状,分析了森林健康与森林康养产业之间的关系。结果表明:森林康养产业的理论基础就是基于森林健康理念继承发展来的,必然会促进森林健康产业的发展。运用森林健康理念指导森林康养产业发展是森林康养产业可持续发展的有效途径,森林健康理念在中国会不断完善和发展,也更有利于中国森林康养产业的发展。展望康养产业,会形成一种新的经济形态,成为国民福祉。     

香蕉新品种‘南天红’

香蕉新品种‘南天红’由‘南天黄’的自然突变选育而成。假茎平均高度2.59 m，幼树假茎外表面暗红色，抽蕾后转绿。雄花苞片外表面常为深红色，花苞卷曲，常不脱落；从种植到收获11 ~ 13个月，单株产量25 kg，品质好。中高抗香蕉枯萎病4号小种，采用配套的栽培技术可在所有香蕉种植区推广。