中国上市公司多元化经营绩效的实证分析

通过随机抽样,计算我国57家上市公司1998年-2002年的平均盈利指标和风险指标,根据各公司多元化熵值的大小对样本总体进行分组,分析多元化程度对企业绩效的影响.研究发现1.多元化程度越高,公司的平均净资产收益率越高;2.多元化经营降低了公司收益率的波动水平;3.资产规模越小的公司越倾向于选择多元化经营.     

汽车运材费用的多因素分析

本文应用多元统计分析方法对汽车运材费用进行分析，影响运材费用的主要因素按其对单位成本影响的贡献大小排序，依次是单位养路费、单位燃润费、单位保修费和单位大修费．     

Serum 5'nucleotidase activity in rats: a method for automated analysis and criteria for interpretation

A manual kit for determining serum 5'nucleotidase (5'NT, EC 3.1.3.5) activity was adapted for use with rat samples on a large discrete clinical chemistry analyzer. The precision of the method was good (within-run C.V. = 2.14%; between-run C.V. = 5.5%). A comparison of the new automated method with a manual and semi-automated method gave regression statistics of y = 1.18X -3.66 (Sy. x = 4.54), and y = 0.733X + 1.97 (Sy. x = 1.69), respectively. Temperature conversion factors provided by the kit manufacturer for human samples were determined to be inaccurate for converting results from rat samples. Analysis of components contributing to normal variation in rat serum 5'NT activity showed age and sex to be major factors. Increased serum 5'NT activity was observed in female rats when compared to male rats beginning at about 5 to 6 weeks of age. An analysis of variance of serum 5'NT, alkaline phosphatase, and GGT activities observed over a 9-week period in normal rats suggests several advantages for 5'NT as a predictor of biliary lesions in rats.     

Predicting the spatial distribution of ground flora on large domains using a hierarchical Bayesian model

Accomodation of important sources of uncertainty in ecological models is essential to realistically predicting ecological processes. The purpose of this project is to develop a robust methodology for modeling natural processes on a landscape while accounting for the variability in a process by utilizing environmental and spatial random effects. A hierarchical Bayesian framework has allowed the simultaneous integration of these effects. This framework naturally assumes variables to be random and the posterior distribution of the model provides probabilistic information about the process. Two species in the genus Desmodium were used as examples to illustrate the utility of the model in Southeast Missouri, USA. In addition, two validation techniques were applied to evaluate the qualitative and quantitative characteristics of the predictions.This revised version was published online in May 2005 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

美国油气管道基本失效概率评估方法及启示

为充分利用油气管道历史失效数据,减少失效概率评估过程中的主观性,提出油气管道基本失效概率的概念及评估方法。对美国管道及危险物品安全管理局数据库的油气管道里程数据、事故数据及失效因素数据进行全面分析,采用基于事故统计的方法评估油气管道基本失效概率。结果表明:美国危险液体管道、输气集气管道、配气管道发生一般事故的基本失效概率分别为1.29次/(10^3 km·a)、2.17次/(10^4 km·a)及4.08次/(10^5 km·a),发生较大事故的基本失效概率分别为4.58次/(10^4 km·a)、1.41次/(10^4 km·a)及2.38次/(10^5 km·a),发生重大事故的基本失效概率分别为9.09次/(10^6 km·a)、9.79次/(10^6 km·a)及1.11次/(10^5 km·a)。美国基本失效概率可作为油气管道失效概率评估的基准线,也可作为风险可接受标准的依据,但不能直接应用于中国管道风险评价,需对其进行修正,建立适用于中国管道的失效数据库。     

An Expert Knowledge-acquisition Method on Line of Automatic Excluding Errors

Aimed at soving the problem existing in the knowledge-acquisition directing-operation expert systems, a new method is proposed to acquire knowledge of expert-operation, excluding errors existed in examples and reinforce the accuracy of examples,the goal of knowledge acquisition can be achieved, the method presented in this paper solves the problem of self-enhancement of expert knowledge on line efficiently.     

Application of Multivariate Statistics in Early-warning of Corporation Financial Crisis

This paper is focused on early warning of corporation financial crisis for the China's household electric appliance manufacturers in stock market. Firstly, using company's open-disclosed annual statements as data resource, the financial indexes system is constructed. Secondary, adopting the multivariable statistical analysis method, such as cluster, discriminate and principle component analysis, the multivariate models for the empirical study on early warning of financial crisis by making use of SPSS statistical software are set up. The corporation might discover the financial affairs crisis that shall probably arise beforehand by using the financial affairs crisis early warning system. This study and analysis may serve as reference for domestic industries and enterprises.     

Concrete Evidence Reseach to the Aacepting Insurance Ability of China''s Non-life Insurance Companies

Owning to the ability of accepting insurance enough,it is the foundation for insurance companies to operate in a long-term and steady way,a method to develop sustainably,a reflection of an insurance company's comprehensive competition ability and also a premise for an insurance company to realize developing strategy.Accepting insurance ability is very important in the development and strategic planning for an insurance company.The quantitative analysis is used to analyze the ability of accepting insurance of our country's insurance companies,in another word,the factor(analysis),which belongs to the analysis of diverse statistic,is used.Using the method to give a concrete evidence analysis to the ability of accepting insurance of our country's non-life insurance companies,so that the insurance companies can understand very well to the advantages and disadvantages of the ability of accepting insurance to each other,and as well as supplying a strategic reference for the insurance companies themselves to make decisive planning.     

长时序海量土地利用时空数据统计优化方法

针对任意查询区域年度现状地类面积统计困难、长时序变更流量分析计算耗时等问题,提出基于时空变化图模型的统计优化方法。运用图的连通性原理,对查询统计区域内和边界处的要素实体进行分类,实现了时序快照统计优化算法,解决了任意查询区域时点现状统计困难的问题,提高了时序快照统计的效率。运用多商品流原理进行时空网络图约化性判定,实现了变更流量统计优化算法,减少了要素空间叠置分析次数,解决了长时序土地利用变化变更流量统计耗时问题,提高了统计的效率。最后,以2009—2012年琼海市土地利用数据为例,进一步验证优化算法的有效性和可行性。     

水库汛期分期方法研究及其应用

应用矢量统计法和相对频率法，基于年最大值取样以及超定量取样进行汛期分期计算，并与现有的方法进行比较研究。实例应用结果表明，这两种方法均可用于汛期的分期计算中，具有一定的实用价值。