永城县土壤养分变化动态与培肥措施

对永城县1982年至1987年土壤养分变化动态进行了定点分析研究.共分析了三十个乡的257个土样。土壤有机质和氮素含量1987年比1982年相应提高25%和41.4%;而速效磷和钾则相应降低36.1%和89.9%;微量元素有效锌、硼、钼含量均属中低级水平。据此提出了相应的培肥措施.     

三因素随机区组试验结果统计分析的BASIC程序

本文提供了三因素随机区组试验结果统计分析的 BASIC 程序,可进行方差分析、计算标准差、判定差异显著性。该程序输入输出方式简单,容易掌握。     

消费者价格指数与生产者价格指数“倒挂”之谜

消费者价格指数（Consumer Price Index,CPI）与生产者价格指数（Producer Price Index,PPI）是我国最重要的两个价格指数，一般说来，CPI与PPI应当是同步变化的.但是自2000年以来，CPI与PPI出现了多次“倒挂”现象，这无疑对当前经济通胀情况的判断带来了挑战.采用最新的X-13-ARIMA-SEATS方法对我国的CPI与PPI指数进行季节调整；在谱分析的基础上采用BK滤波方法将其趋势-循环因素进行分解得到趋势因素与循环因素.研究后发现是经济周期导致了“倒挂”现象.     

基于GIS的村级尺度统计数据空间化方法与时序分析初探

选择重庆市巴南区石龙镇大连村、大兴村、白马村、金星村、合路村、柏树村、大桥村、大园村和中伦村9个行政村作为研究区,将研究区的遥感影像、数字高程模型、行政界线等数据的空间参考坐标系统一为1980西安坐标系,选择2006-2012年研究区的农用肥施用量数据作为村级尺度统计数据空间化方法研究的研究数据,利用专家打分法对不同土地利用类型与农用肥施用之间的相关性进行打分,分值范围是0~1分。结合村级行政界线、行政村面积、农用肥施用量、土地利用数据和专家打分结果,构建农用肥施用数据空间化模型,分别生成2006-2012年村级农用肥施用数据空间化分布栅格数据,栅格尺度选择1、10、100和200 m这4种,并对栅格化结果进行对比分析。同时,对2006-2012年的农用肥施用空间分布数据进行时序分析,获取农用肥施用量的动态变化趋势。通过研究得到以下结论:1村级农用肥施用量数据空间化尺度与土地利用数据的类型及空间分辨率有关;2研究区各行政村农用肥施用量在2006-2012年期间总体变化趋于平稳。本研究对于实现村级统计数据空间化方法具有一定的参考意义,而空间化后的村级统计数据对于进行村镇区域规划、土地整改、生态环境保护等具有重要指导意义。     

Tick-borne encephalitis epidemic in Hungary 1951–2021: The story and lessons learned

The authors analysed epidemiological data of the Hungarian tick-borne encephalitis epidemic from the past seven decades. A total of 911 meningitis serosa cases were described from 1930-1950 s by local hospital physicians, indicating that the virus had been present in the country decades before its official identification in 1952. The virus spread freely in the 1950s–1960s, occupying almost all habitats where ticks occurred in large numbers. The increasing number of cases drove authorities to classify this illness as a notifiable disease in 1977 and to organize the first measures to stop the epidemic. Statistical analysis revealed that the large-scale vaccination launched from the 1990s was responsible for the sharp decrease in the number of human cases from 1997. A significant negative correlation was found between the number of vaccine doses sold and human cases 6 years later. The TBEV endemic area covers 16.57% of the territory and 16.65% of the population of the country. In the last 10 years, 186,000 vaccine doses/year in average were enough to keep the incidence of human TBEV infections between 0.45 and 0.06/100,000 persons. A 20-year-long study found evidence for easing clinical signs in TBEV-infected hospitalized patients. Statistics found a sharp decrease in the number of samples sent for TBEV diagnosis after 1989. Male dominance of patients was characteristic of the epidemics since the 1940s, but now analysis of detailed data from the 1981–2021 period (60.5%–87.5%) proved the statistical significance of this dominance. Obviously, the voluntary vaccination programme was the tool which broke the spread of the epidemic. Widespread public awareness of the disease and the tick vector, probable evolutionary spread of less pathogenic virus strains supplemented with the vaccination campaign led to a negligible level of human TBE cases in Hungary in the last years.     

强度参数统计特性对边坡稳定可靠性的影响

由于对边坡强度参数统计特性考虑不全面,使得边坡可靠性指标计算值偏小,对应的失效概率偏大,常常超过10%,设计中难以采纳,造成地基可靠度规范的制定和执行进展缓慢。以某高速公路全风化花岗岩土质高边坡为工程背景,在分析土质参数统计特性的基础上,采用极限平衡理论和蒙特卡罗模拟法,系统地分析了土质强度参数的均值不定性、变异性、相关性、区间特性和空间变化性等对边坡稳定可靠性的影响。结果表明：土性参数的各种统计特性对边坡稳定可靠性均具有不同程度的影响。可靠性指标计算值随抽样距离的减小而增加,随c或φ均值的增大而增加,随c和φ的变异系数的增大而减小,随c和φ相关系数绝对值的增大而增加,考虑区间性后可靠性指标计算值也明显变大。即变异性对边坡稳定不利,而相关性、区间性和空间变化性对边坡稳定有利。因此,准确而全面地考虑土质参数的统计特性,尤其是在参数变异性和相关性的基础上加以考虑土性参数空间变化性和区间性会更加符合工程实际,且计算结果趋于安全,有利于地基可靠度规范的推广运用和边坡工程的安全评价。     

Testing and statistical analysis of the performance of a pipe drainage system: A case study in north-eastern Italy

A survey program was carried out from June 1988 to august 1989 in North-eastern Italy in a pipe drainage area of 61 ha in order to verify if the year of installation (one part of the system has been installed in 1984 and another one year later) and the cover material of drains (pipes were covered with cocofibre for 2/5 of their length and without envelope for 3/5) could influence the functioning of the system. Collected data of drain discharge and water table depth were subjected to an elaborate statistical analysis.A methodological approach to determine the sample size (how many measurements of discharge and watertable depth are required, in space and time, from a statistical stand-point) in drainage experiment is proposed. For drainage systems similar to the considered one, a sample size of 10–12 drains and 6–8 observation wells can be recommended in order to obtain a standard error lower than 10–15% of the mean.     

基于多元统计分析的茄衣烟叶生产气候资源配置

为探究茄衣烟叶生产中的气候资源配置情况,以“云雪1号”品种为试验材料,通过调整移栽期以改变烟株生育期内的气候指标,采用多元统计分析法研究茄衣烟叶的气候资源配置及其对烟株农艺性状及发酵后烟叶化学成分的影响。相关性分析结果显示,烟株大田期的积温、≥10 ℃有效积温、总降水量与总温差对烟株农艺性状各指标的影响较大,其相关系数分布范围为0.478~0.939,而积温、≥10 ℃有效积温、平均气温对烟叶总糖、烟碱、总氮、蛋白质含量影响较大,其相关系数分布范围为-0.955~-1.000。采用因子分析的方法在8项气候指标中提取出气候积累因子与湿度因子2个主因子,进一步通过灰色关联分析得出上述二者分别是影响烟株农艺性状和烟叶常规化学成分的主因子。以上结果表明,确定茄衣烟株移栽期的主要气候因子依据为大田生育期的气温、降水量和相对湿度的综合配置。     

NMR-Based Configurational Assignments of Natural Products: Gibbs Sampling and Bayesian Inference Using Floating Chirality Distance Geometry Calculations

Floating chirality restrained distance geometry (fc-rDG) calculations are used to directly evolve structures from NMR data such as NOE-derived intramolecular distances or anisotropic residual dipolar couplings (RDCs). In contrast to evaluating pre-calculated structures against NMR restraints, multiple configurations (diastereomers) and conformations are generated automatically within the experimental limits. In this report, we show that the “unphysical” rDG pseudo energies defined from NMR violations bear statistical significance, which allows assigning probabilities to configurational assignments made that are fully compatible with the method of Bayesian inference. These “diastereomeric differentiabilities” then even become almost independent of the actual values of the force constants used to model the restraints originating from NOE or RDC data.