气候变化情景下流苏香竹潜在分布区预测

流苏香竹（Chimonocalamus fimbriatus）是云南特有珍稀竹种，主要分布于云南西南部。文章以野外调查获取的流苏香竹分布信息为主，运用最大熵模型（MaxEnt）同时结合地理信息系统（ArcGIS），基于19个气候因子，预测其在当前及未来气候变化情景下的潜在分布区。结果表明：当前流苏香竹的高适生区和中适生区主要分布于德宏州、保山市和临沧市等地，除迪庆州、丽江市和昭通市外，云南其他区域均有低适生区零星分布。在未来2050s和2070s的2个时间段，基于2种不同共享社会经济路径（SSP1-2.6和SSP5-8.5），流苏香竹的高适生区面积呈减少的趋势，尤其是SSP5-8.5路径下，高适生区面积仅为当前的12.51%（2050s）和18.63%（2070s）；中、低适生区在SSP1-2.6路径下，显著扩张（2050s）或略微扩张（2070s），在SSP5-8.5路径下，则大幅收缩。流苏香竹野外实际分布区及其潜在分布区均以斑块状为主，可能与云南特殊的地形、地貌有关。影响流苏香竹分布的主导气候因子为最湿月份降水量、最暖月份最高温度、最干季度降水量和平均气温日较差。流苏香竹对气候变化比较敏感，根据其野外分布状况，建议以就地保护为主、迁地保护为辅，在其潜在适生区内适当引种栽培。     

基于科技文献社会网络分析的"一带一路"科技情报安全研究

为明确中国在"一带一路"沿线国家所形成的科技网络中处于怎样的位置,面临怎样的科技情报风险,需要采取哪些措施维护中国科技情报安全,应用智库DIIS理论方法,对科学引文索引中2013年-2017年"一带一路"沿线国家论文合作数据进行社会网络分析,应用管理机制设计"七元组"理论开展科技情报安全机制设计。研究结果显示,中国科技情报的暴露程度较高,科技应用的不可控因素、知识产权保护的挑战、科技情报资源流失的风险同时存在,并与各种非传统安全问题相叠加。切实掌握核心技术,维护知识产权,加强政府、社会对科技交流的监管,防止科技情报被非法利用,是保障科技情报安全的主要途径。     

围场县马铃薯中典型药物污染特征及健康风险评价

为掌握典型药物在农作物中的污染特征及健康风险,保障农产品质量安全,利用超声萃取-固相萃取-高效液相色谱/串联质谱(LC-MS/MS)技术,对围场县全县马铃薯中5大类(磺胺类、四环素类、氟喹诺酮类、大环内酯类及其他类)25种药物污染水平及富集效果进行了调查,并对健康风险进行了评价。结果表明,有20种目标物被检出,不同目标物检出率差异显著,检出含量范围为0.13～3.67μg·kg-1,单种污染物最高检出含量为17.0μg·kg-1。马铃薯对目标污染物的富集系数范围在0.01～39.6之间,最大富集系数为61.8。畜禽粪便是马铃薯中药物残留的主要来源,尽管整体检出水平和健康风险相对较低,但长期摄入与协同作用引发的潜在健康风险不容忽视。因此,仍需严控污染源头,推进畜禽粪便安全资源化利用,确保农田环境质量及农产品安全品质。     

浙江省油菜花期降水量风险评估

对浙江省66个县市(区)1971—2014年油菜花期降水量及油菜产量资料进行统计分析,并基于信息扩散的风险评估模型,对浙江省油菜花期降水量在各级降水量下的超越概率进行计算分析,评估各地油菜花期面临的旱涝风险;同时分析了浙江省油菜花期各级降水量风险值与油菜产量变化之间的关系。结果表明:油菜花期降水量严重过剩的风险高值区主要位于浙西南地区,降水量短缺风险高值区主要位于浙江省沿海岛屿及宁波的部分县市;浙江省油菜花期降水量短缺基本可以通过灌溉得到改善,但油菜减产与花期降水量过多显著相关,油菜花期降水量300 mm是油菜是否减产的阈值。该结果可为油菜种植合理布局及农业保险政策提供科学依据。     

土壤养分位与广义氧化还原电极电势

 根据广义氧化还原理论,给出了土壤溶液中NH₄⁺,P,Ca等养料成份的广义氧化还原电极电势。与养分位比较,用广义氧化还原电极电势来量度土壤养分有效度具有较多的优越性。     

龟石灌区节水改造的潜力与效益分析

针对龟石灌区农业用水效率低下、浪费严重等问题，提出了节水措施，分析了节水改造的潜力与效益。灌区水资源优化配置与合理利用，提高灌溉水利用率和水分生产率，富余水量用于城市供水及发电，提高单位水量的价值不仅是必要的，而且是灌区发展的必由之路。     

入世风险与农村现行双层经营制度的变迁

中国加入WTO之后 ,农民不仅要承担其他国家农民所承担的自然风险与市场风险 ,还要承担因现行双层经营制度带来的预期不确定性的风险 ,其根源在于现行的经营制度呈现出极大的“体制锁定”的色彩。要打破这种体制锁定 ,必须两条腿走路 :诱致性创新与强制性创新并举。既精减机构 ,明确政府的责、权、利 ,又扶植与培育农民联合体 ,增强市场创新主体分摊成本的能力与赢利能力 ,从而确保新体制的生命力与竞争力。     

Effect of Split Nitrogen Application on Growth and Yield of Wheat (T. aestivum L.) Genotypes with Different N-Assimilation Potential

A field experiment was conducted with different nitrogen regimes to assess the growth and yield performance of wheat genotypes which differ in nitrate assimilation potential. Genotypic differences in biomass accumulation were observed at different growth stages. The nitrogen treatment had little effect on biomass accumulation at early stages of growth, while at later stages of growth there was enhanced biomass accumulation when N was applied in more than two splits. On an average, genotypes with high nitrate reductase activity (the 'HNR' genotypes) accumulated 14.2 % more biomass than the genotypes with low nitrate reductase activity ('LNR' genotypes) when an extra dose (40 kg N ha⁻¹) of nitrogen was given at the time of anthesis. The application of nitrogen in more than two splits increased grain yield of both 'HNR' and 'LNR' genotypes mainly by increasing grain weight per ear. The application of an extra dose of nitrogen (40 kg N ha⁻¹) at the time of anthesis increased grain yield of 'HNR' genotypes by 38.5 % as compared to 'LNR' genotypes.     

The Effect of Chilling Maize Shoots and Roots on the Electric Potential, Composition of Fatty Acids and the ATPase Activity in the Non-chilled Organs of Seedlings

The effect of separate chilling (5°C for 2 and 4 days) on the shoots and roots of two maize hybrid seedlings on the electric potential, the composition of fatty acids and the ATPase activity in the microsomes of non-chilled leaves and roots (20°C) was investigated. It has been found that the low temperatures induced on the non-chilled organs gave similar changes to organs exposed to a reduced temperature. The changes consisted of a parallel depolarization of leaf and root membranes and similarly a decrease in the ATPase activity as well as changes in the unsaturation of the membranes' fatty acids. The reduction of the acid content 18:2 was particularly significant, which in the leaf microsomes correlated with a drop in the ATPase activity.
The similarity between the reactions of the chilled and non-chilled parts of the plant gives evidence of a communication' between the organs which may facilitate a coordinated reaction of the entire organism to stress. The background for these phenomena could be die action potential of die chilled parts of seedlings which, in the non-chilled parts, might produce changes in the structure of biomembranes and in the activity of enzymes.