Impact of climate change on maize yield in China from 1979 to 2016

Climate change severely impacts agricultural production, which jeopardizes food security. China is the second largest maize producer in the world and also the largest consumer of maize. Analyzing the impact of climate change on maize yields can provide effective guidance to national and international economics and politics. Panel models are unable to determine the group-wise heteroscedasticity, cross-sectional correlation and autocorrelation of datasets, therefore we adopted the feasible generalized least square(FGLS) model to evaluate the impact of climate change on maize yields in China from 1979–2016 and got the following results:(1) During the 1979–2016 period, increases in temperature negatively impacted the maize yield of China. For every 1°C increase in temperature, the maize yield was reduced by 5.19 kg 667 m–2(1.7%). Precipitation increased only marginally during this time, and therefore its impact on the maize yield was negligible. For every 1 mm increase in precipitation, the maize yield increased by an insignificant amount of 0.043 kg 667 m–2(0.014%).(2) The impacts of climate change on maize yield differ spatially, with more significant impacts experienced in southern China. In this region, a 1°C increase in temperature resulted in a 7.49 kg 667 m–2 decrease in the maize yield, while the impact of temperature on the maize yield in northern China was insignificant. For every 1 mm increase in precipitation, the maize yield increased by 0.013 kg 667 m–2 in southern China and 0.066 kg 667 m–2 in northern China.(3) The resilience of the maize crop to climate change is strong. The marginal effect of temperature in both southern and northern China during the 1990–2016 period was smaller than that for the 1979–2016 period.     

蜗壳式离心泵外特性仿真与实验研究

为探索不同仿真方法的适用性,对ns=157的单级蜗壳离心泵不同工况的扬程和效率进行定常和非定常计算,并分别分析了定常计算时不同叶片夹角及非定常计算时不同时间步长的影响,通过与实验对比,得到的主要结论有:定常计算仅适用于额定工况外特性仿真,其扬程和效率计算误差分别为4.9%和2.9%,而定常多相位的计算误差分别为7.1%和3.2%;非定常仿真计算时,以4°为时间步长,并间隔20°保存一次计算数据,较好地预测出扬程曲线走势,额定工况扬程和效率计算误差约1.1%和1.8%,但小流量和大流量区间扬程计算误差达到10%左右。因此在水力优化设计时,若只关注高效点位置及其扬程和效率,可采用定常计算,若还关注扬程曲线走势,则应采用非定常计算。     

不同施肥处理对马铃薯农田土壤理化性状及产量的影响

为了探究不同施肥处理对马铃薯农田土壤理化性状及产量的影响,试验地采用马铃薯连作模式,设置3个施肥处理,即：单施化肥(T)、有机肥配施化肥(YTF 1/2)、全量有机肥(YTF)。结果表明：在不同施肥处理下马铃薯农田土壤的理化性质和马铃薯产量发生了变化,其中变化最为明显的土壤指标有土壤容重、孔隙度、饱和导水率、有效磷。YTF处理较T处理可分别显著(P<0.05)降低土壤容重16.8%,增加土壤孔隙度12.7%,提升饱和导水率25.3%。YTF处理可显著提升土壤有效磷含量43.0%,但各处理间土壤pH、有机碳、全氮、全磷、碱解氮、速效钾之间差异并未达到显著水平。同时,较之T处理,YTF处理亦可显著提升土壤团聚体含量。YTF和YTF 1/2处理可分别较T处理提升马铃薯产量24.6%和12.8%。因此,施用有机肥不仅可以改善土壤结构,改良土壤物理性状,亦能促产增收。     

基于有限元的汽车扭臂热锻工艺研究

文章以汽车扭杆力臂为研究对象,通过DEFORM-3D有限元分析对汽车扭杆力臂热锻工艺过程进行模拟试验,分析了成形过程中的上模载荷情况、应力应变场分布情况和温度场的变化规律。以提高产品质量和降低载荷为主要目的,给出合理的热加工参数,分析结果能为类似锻件的热模锻工艺和模具设计提供依据。     

数值模型结构不确定性对模拟结果的影响分析

以内蒙古鄂托克旗为例,基于GMS中的MODFLOW模块构建了地下水流数值模拟模型,分析了模型结构(含水层厚度、参数分区)与模型参数不确定性因素对模拟结果的影响.研究结果表明:含水层不确定情景(含水层下边界概化为隔水底板平均值870 m)与实际情况水头差值绝对值的累计和最大为701 m,对模拟结果起了主控作用;当含水层下边界概化为910,940 m时,累计和分别增加为1 013,1 593 m;与仅考虑单个不确定性因素相比,同时考虑模型参数与含水层不确定情景累计和最大为738 m,同时考虑参数分区与含水层不确定情景累计和最大为791 m.因此,在构建地下水流数值模拟模型时,应优先考虑含水层空间结构概化的合理程度,同时考虑多个不确定性因素对模拟结果的综合影响,使地下水数值模拟模型能更精确地反映真实的地下水流状况.     

不同秧龄对沿江地区双季晚稻秧苗素质及产量的影响

以早熟高产品种上农粳2号和镇稻18为材料,采用常规毯苗机械栽插,分别设置20 d、24 d、28 d、32 d等4个秧龄处理,研究不同秧龄对沿江地区双季晚稻秧苗素质、生育进程、茎蘖动态及产量构成的影响。结果表明,随秧龄天数增加,参试品种的绿叶数、茎基宽和根系盘结力均逐渐升高;与20 d、24 d和28 d秧龄的处理相比,32 d秧龄处理的成熟期提前4~5 d,茎蘖高峰期提早15 d左右,结实率显著升高;与24 d秧龄处理相比,上农粳2号和镇稻18在32 d秧龄处理下的产量分别提高10.26%和20.82%。在秧苗强化化控和苗床管理的条件下,安徽沿江地区常规毯苗机插的栽插秧龄可延长至32 d。     

Compatibility of root growth and tuber production of potato cultivars with dynamic and static water‐saving irrigation managements

The important root characteristics of root length density (RLD) and root mass density (RMD) generally differ among irrigation managements and potato cultivars. The objective of this study was to investigate the RLD and RMD variations and their functional relationships with gross potato tuber yield for two commercial potato cultivars, Agria and Sante, under different irrigation strategies. Full irrigation and water‐saving irrigation strategies, deficit and partial root drying irrigations, were applied statically (S) and dynamically (D) based on daily crop evapotranspiration. Results showed that SPRD had significantly greater RLD (3.64 cm/cm³) and RMD (132.7 μg/cm³) than other irrigation treatments. Between the potato cultivars, Agria had significantly larger values of RLD (3.50 cm/cm³) and RMD (138.7 μg/cm³) than Sante. The functional relationship between the root growth characteristics and tuber yield showed that under water‐saving irrigations, Agria increased root mass at the expense of gross tuber yield but Sante increased root mass to maintain larger gross tuber yields. However, Agria produced more roots and gross tuber yield than Sante, and it is concluded that Agria is a more drought‐tolerant potato cultivar, which is recommended for tuber production in regions where water might be scarce. It was shown that larger root production in potatoes was associated with improved tolerance to water stress.     

我国牧草种植成本收益变化与比较

本研究以牧草种植户牧草及粮食作物的调研数据为基础,计算出2010-2014年主要牧草和粮食作物的成本收益基本信息,对其变化进行统计分析,并对各作物的成本收益进行比较。分析发现,2014年苜蓿(Medicago sativa)的经济效益有所下降;黑麦草(Lolium perenne)和青贮玉米(Zea mays)的纯收益和收益率有所增长;苜蓿的纯收益和收益率要高于黑麦草和青贮玉米;马铃薯(Solanum tuberosum)和苜蓿的经济效益更具优势,种植小麦(Triticum aestivum)经济效益较差;黑麦草和青贮玉米人工和土地成本更高,苜蓿水电费最高。建议调整农业产业结构,推行"粮+经+饲+草"四元种植结构,全面扶持牧草产业发展,建立健全牧草生产资料补贴制度。