基于科技文献社会网络分析的"一带一路"科技情报安全研究

为明确中国在"一带一路"沿线国家所形成的科技网络中处于怎样的位置,面临怎样的科技情报风险,需要采取哪些措施维护中国科技情报安全,应用智库DIIS理论方法,对科学引文索引中2013年-2017年"一带一路"沿线国家论文合作数据进行社会网络分析,应用管理机制设计"七元组"理论开展科技情报安全机制设计。研究结果显示,中国科技情报的暴露程度较高,科技应用的不可控因素、知识产权保护的挑战、科技情报资源流失的风险同时存在,并与各种非传统安全问题相叠加。切实掌握核心技术,维护知识产权,加强政府、社会对科技交流的监管,防止科技情报被非法利用,是保障科技情报安全的主要途径。     

围场县马铃薯中典型药物污染特征及健康风险评价

为掌握典型药物在农作物中的污染特征及健康风险,保障农产品质量安全,利用超声萃取-固相萃取-高效液相色谱/串联质谱(LC-MS/MS)技术,对围场县全县马铃薯中5大类(磺胺类、四环素类、氟喹诺酮类、大环内酯类及其他类)25种药物污染水平及富集效果进行了调查,并对健康风险进行了评价。结果表明,有20种目标物被检出,不同目标物检出率差异显著,检出含量范围为0.13～3.67μg·kg-1,单种污染物最高检出含量为17.0μg·kg-1。马铃薯对目标污染物的富集系数范围在0.01～39.6之间,最大富集系数为61.8。畜禽粪便是马铃薯中药物残留的主要来源,尽管整体检出水平和健康风险相对较低,但长期摄入与协同作用引发的潜在健康风险不容忽视。因此,仍需严控污染源头,推进畜禽粪便安全资源化利用,确保农田环境质量及农产品安全品质。     

浙江省油菜花期降水量风险评估

对浙江省66个县市(区)1971—2014年油菜花期降水量及油菜产量资料进行统计分析,并基于信息扩散的风险评估模型,对浙江省油菜花期降水量在各级降水量下的超越概率进行计算分析,评估各地油菜花期面临的旱涝风险;同时分析了浙江省油菜花期各级降水量风险值与油菜产量变化之间的关系。结果表明:油菜花期降水量严重过剩的风险高值区主要位于浙西南地区,降水量短缺风险高值区主要位于浙江省沿海岛屿及宁波的部分县市;浙江省油菜花期降水量短缺基本可以通过灌溉得到改善,但油菜减产与花期降水量过多显著相关,油菜花期降水量300 mm是油菜是否减产的阈值。该结果可为油菜种植合理布局及农业保险政策提供科学依据。     

A context for recruitment correlations: why marine fisheries biologists should still look for them

In many cases when ecologists want to investigate a process, they often look for the best system on which to conduct the research, "best" meaning that the possibility of discovering mechanisms is optimized or made easier in some way. In fisheries we do it backwards. The species and system are given to us by economics, and we then fly in the face of the difficult circumstances to find mechanisms that are elusive anyway. These difficult circumstances constitute in some sense the first set of statistical problems. Using examples from the Northeast Pacific, I review the characteristics of cohort time series that make some species more tractable; propose a conscious process of conceptualization to assist in the formulation of clear, germane hypotheses; highlight the contrast between modeling in the sense of statistical fitting versus simulation models of processes; explore how the first round of models integrates with the second round of planning for new data collection at sea and in the lab; and, finally, propose how to judge success in terms of an operational approach.     

Evaluation of two N cycle models for the prediction of N mineralization from grassland soils in the UK

Abstract. The ability of two nitrogen cycle models, of contrasting complexity, to predict N mineralization from a range of grassland soils in the UK, was evaluated. These were NCYCLE, a simple mass balance model of the N cycle in UK grasslands, and CENTURY, a more complex model simulating long-term C, N, P & S dynamics in grassland ecosystems. The models were tested using field measurements of net N mineralization from a range of grassland soils (differing in soil type, history & management practice), obtained over a 2 year period using a soil core incubation technique. This method was considered to measure the total net release of mineral N from the soil organic matter over a specified time, including N which may have been recycled several times. NCYCLE consistently under-estimated mineralization rates at all sites. By contrast, there was some correlation between CENTURY predictions of net N mineralization and field measurements. This may have reflected the different abilities of the two models to simulate N recycling. Neither model, however, was able to predict adequately the effect of cultivation and reseeding on net N mineralization.     

DYNAMIC MODELS OF AQUIFEROUS CONTENT OF LIVING FUELS

RESEARCHSITELivingfue1splayedanimportantroleinheatconcentrationactionorinheatsourceofforestfire.Whenitshumiditydecreasestoacertainlevel,theybecameaheatsourcewhenthelivingcombustibl-eswerecombinedwithfire.Thus,itwasessentialhowtodeterminethemoisturesituationandthefOrestfiredangerdegreetobeforecastedaccurately.Thedynamicmodelspresentedinthispaperwereusefultosolvethisproblem.Everyyear,-therewerealotofforestfires,especiallythefireoccurrenceinDaxinganMountains,inthespringofl987.Itwasveryimpo…     

入世风险与农村现行双层经营制度的变迁

中国加入WTO之后 ,农民不仅要承担其他国家农民所承担的自然风险与市场风险 ,还要承担因现行双层经营制度带来的预期不确定性的风险 ,其根源在于现行的经营制度呈现出极大的“体制锁定”的色彩。要打破这种体制锁定 ,必须两条腿走路 :诱致性创新与强制性创新并举。既精减机构 ,明确政府的责、权、利 ,又扶植与培育农民联合体 ,增强市场创新主体分摊成本的能力与赢利能力 ,从而确保新体制的生命力与竞争力。     

松材线虫病入侵陕西的风险分析

松材线虫病自1982年在我国发现后，扩散和危害呈逐年扩大和加重趋势，严重影响了我国生态安全和经济发展。本文通过对松材线虫病定量的风险分析，得出风险值R=2．775，表明松材线虫病对陕西省而言属于特别危险的林业有害生物，应加强监测、检疫和除治管理，防止传入陕西省并造成扩散危害。     

刺槐单株生物量动态研究

本文依据420株刺槐生物量及23株树干解析资料,应用灰色Verhulst模型,对太行山坡地刺槐林单株干、枝、叶、根生物量动态进行了研究,分别建立了预测模型,预测了各器官生长的速生期和停止生长林龄,为实现刺槐林的多目标经营提供决策依据。     

Epidemiological studies of piglet diarrhoea in intensively managed Danish sow herds. II. Post-weaning diarrhoea

This study comprised 48,931 litters in 89 sow herds. During the study (1976-82) weaning age decreased from approx. 42 days to approx. 30 days. The mean incidence of post-weaning diarrhoea was 6.0% of litters weaned, with little variation by year but with considerable variation among herds. Within the individual herd increased incidence occurred over limited periods, probably associated with specific infections. Litters with diarrhoea during the suckling period had increased risk of post-weaning diarrhoea. The incidence of post-weaning diarrhoea increased with litter size at weaning. Thus, a litter of 11-12 piglets at weaning had 1.2 times higher risk than litters with 8-10 piglets. In contrast to pre-weaning diarrhoea, there was no association between parity of the sow and diarrhoea in the litter after weaning. Litters weaned below 2 weeks of age had a 2-fold risk of developing diarrhoea after weaning and a 2.4-fold higher mortality rate than did litters weaned at 6-7 weeks. Similarly, litters weaned at an individual piglet weight below 3 kg bodyweight had a 3-fold higher risk of developing diarrhoea after weaning and a 5-fold higher mortality rate than did pigs from litters weaned at a bodyweight of 7-8 kg. The incidence of post-weaning diarrhoea decreased with increasing herd size. Piglets from litters with post-weaning diarrhoea had reduced weight gains after weaning and were 2.3 days older at 25 kg bodyweight than piglets from non-diarrhoeic litters. Likewise, diarrhoea after weaning was associated with an increased incidence of diseases of the skin and respiratory tract. Thus the risk of contracting respiratory disease was 4 times greater in diarrhoeic litters.