河南卫河流域脆弱性评价

结合卫河自身特点和地理环境建立13项指标体系,运用基于熵权的模糊数学模型对其脆弱性进行评价。结果表明,鹤壁的脆弱性为0.69,焦作为0.55,新乡为0.39,安阳为0.36,濮阳为0.23。最后针对评价结果分析了原因,提出了合理性建议和措施。     

中亚农业水资源脆弱性及其变化特征分析

农业用水是链接自然环境和社会经济发展的重要环节,研究农业水资源脆弱性的时空变化对揭示水资源的可持续开发利用、保障水资源安全、应对洪旱灾害具有重要意义。为研究中亚地区农业水资源脆弱性变化特征,本文以中亚五国为研究区,基于气象、土地覆盖、地形和社会经济数据,依据脆弱性概念框架,从暴露度、敏感度和适应度3个方面选取18个指标,建立了农业水资源脆弱性评价指标体系,采用等权重法和主成分分析法确定指标权重,对1992-2017年中亚农业水资源脆弱性进行了评价及特征分析。结果表明:1)中亚农业水资源脆弱性空间分布表现为"南高北低"的特征,5国中土库曼斯坦农业水资源脆弱性最强,其次为乌兹别克斯坦、塔吉克斯坦和吉尔吉斯斯坦,而哈萨克斯坦农业水资源脆弱性最弱;研究时段内农业水资源脆弱性空间分布格局变化较小。2)中亚农业水资源脆弱性随时间变化表现为"前期升高,中期降低,后期稳定"的态势,整个研究期内研究区农业水资源脆弱性变化类型以相对稳定为主。不同地区农业水资源脆弱性随时间的变化存在差异,吉尔吉斯斯坦西部和土库曼斯坦的农业水资源脆弱性升高,乌兹别克斯坦、塔吉克斯坦以及咸海地区水资源脆弱性降低,其他地区相对稳定。3)不同地区农业水资源脆弱性对各指标的敏感性不同,北部农业水资源脆弱性动态变化对农田灌溉定额和灌溉指数以负敏感为主,对其他指标以正敏感为主,而南部对各指标的敏感性正负均有;相关性分析表明,森林覆盖率、农业用水比例、农田灌溉定额、水分胁迫指数、灌溉指数和农业水分生产率是导致中亚农业水资源脆弱性空间差异的重要因素。4)为降低农业水资源脆弱性,中亚地区需发展集约型农业,调整作物种植结构,推广耐旱品种农作物,进行节水灌溉。研究结果可为中亚农业水资源规划管理、农业生产布局调整以及农业可持续发展提供参考依据。     

郑州市“九五滩”水源地脆弱性评价

以郑州市“九五滩”水源地为例，在分析水源地供水安全的各种影响因素的基础上，建立了水源地脆弱性评价的数学模型，采用层次分析法对“九五滩”水源地进行脆弱性评价，从水质和水量两个方面进行研究得出各个影响因子的权重，对“九五滩”水源地的脆弱性进行评价。结果表明：脆弱性主要表现在森林覆盖率、污水处理率等方面。进而提出一系列的水源地脆弱性保护措施。     

Effectiveness of protected areas in north-eastern New South Wales: recent trends in six measures

We applied six measures of effectiveness to recent decisions about additional conservation areas in north-eastern New South Wales. Three have been widely used previously: (1) number of conservation areas; (2) total extent of conservation areas; and (3) representativeness (the proportion of natural features such as forest types or animal species represented in conservation areas to some targeted level). The other measures were: (4) efficiency or representation bias (the extent to which some features are protected above target levels at the expense of others that remain poorly protected); (5) relative protection of vulnerable areas within public land (percentage protection of flat, fertile areas relative to that of steep and/or infertile areas); and (6) relative protection of vulnerable areas across all tenures (the correlation between the amount of protection given to features and their vulnerabilities to clearing). We applied the measures in two chronological comparisons: the reserve system in 1994, 1996 and 1997; and before and after the Interim Assessment Process of 1996 which involved negotiations over new reserves and extensive unreserved areas that were temporarily deferred from logging. Over the study period, despite expansion of formal conservation and progress towards quantitative conservation targets, gazetted reserves remained strongly biased to the steep and/or infertile parts of public lands. Both gazetted reserves and areas deferred from logging increased the bias in protection away from forest types most vulnerable to clearing and for which regional conservation targets had already been most compromised. Two major challenges for future conservation decisions in the region are common to conservation planning generally: (1) to focus protection within public tenure on habitats and species most vulnerable to threatening processes such as logging; and (2) to provide more effective conservation management on private lands where loss of native vegetation continues.     

2006年重庆市特大旱灾的特征及其驱动因子分析

分析了2006年重庆市的特大旱灾的特征及其驱动因子,并提出了抗御旱灾的策略.认为2006年的特大旱灾是自然驱动因子与社会驱动因子共同作用的结果,是社会经济因素导致的易损性--"缓慢的、长期的危机"在致灾力触发下表现出的"剧烈的紧急危机"的动态变化过程.     

Livelihood change,farming, and managing flood risk in the Lerma Valley,Mexico

In face of rising flood losses globally, the approach of “living with floods,” rather than relying on structural measures for flood control and prevention, is acquiring greater resonance in diverse socioeconomic contexts. In the Lerma Valley in the state of Mexico, rapid industrialization, population growth, and the declining value of agricultural products are driving livelihood and land use change, exposing increasing numbers of people to flooding. However, data collected in two case studies of farm communities affected by flooding in 2003 illustrate that the concept of flood as agricultural “hazard” has been relatively recently constructed through public intervention in river management and disaster compensation. While farming still represents subsistence value to rural households, increasingly rural communities are relying on non-farm income and alternative livelihood strategies. In this context, defining flooding in rural areas as a private hazard for which individuals are entitled to public protection may be counterproductive. A different approach, in which farmers’ long acceptance of periodic flooding is combined with valuing agricultural land for ecoservices, may enable a more sustainable future for the region’s population.

湘中丘陵盆地区农业生态环境脆弱性评价——以衡阳盆地为例

[目的]对湘中丘陵盆地区的农业生态环境脆弱性进行评价。[方法]以衡阳盆地为例,构建了湘中丘陵盆地区农业生态环境脆弱性评价指标体系,从自然、社会、经济子系统中选取13个评价指标。然后,采用主成分分析法计算各评价指标的权重,进而计算出各县域农业生态环境脆弱度,分析研究区农业生态环境脆弱性强度及其空间分布规律。[结果]农民人均纯收入的权重值最大,为0.140,其次是森林覆盖率(0.137)。研究区农业生态环境以中度脆弱为主,衡南县的脆弱度最大,衡阳县次之,均为强度脆弱区;耒阳市的脆弱度最小,为微度脆弱区。研究区农业生态环境脆弱性呈现出外围低、中间高的趋势。[结论]该研究为农业生态环境的恢复、重建与农业生产决策的制定提供了科学依据。     

鄱阳湖生态经济区经济系统脆弱性评价

从区域经济系统面对内外干扰的敏感性和应对能力两方面建立鄱阳湖生态经济区经济系统脆弱性评价指标体系,并采用集对分析方法对区域经济系统脆弱性内部差异进行评价研究。结果表明:不同行政单元经济系统脆弱性程度差异较大;应对能力的差异是影响区内各县市经济系统脆弱性分异的主要因素;根据脆弱性特征差异进行分类,南昌市属低敏感性、高应对能力型,九江市属高敏感性、高应对能力型,九江县、星子县、永修县、湖口县、都昌县、瑞昌县、德安县、武宁县、彭泽县、乐平市、东乡县、丰城市和高安市属高敏感性、低应对能力型,其他县市属低敏感性、低应对能力型。     

生态脆弱经济贫困区农业农村发展战略

阐述了生态脆弱和贫困的概念,分析了它们之间的相互关系,并在此基础上论述了生态脆弱经济贫困区农业农村的发展战略。     

基于自然灾害的农村贫困效应研究——以广西西南TL村的水灾调查为例

采取偶遇抽样的方法对TL村的贫困户与非贫困户进行了问卷调查,调查了2008年9月的水灾对该村贫困户与非贫困户的生计资产的影响。结果表明:贫困户的受教育水平和健康状况较差;耕地拥有量及作物面积少;房屋质量差;存款少、金融借贷能力低下;通过个人社会关系获取帮助的能力低下。