福建省贮木场的发展出路

本文对福建省贮木场的发展历史进行扼要回顾,分析和评述了木材市场开放后福建省贮木场的现状,针对发展中存在的问题,并紧紧围绕经济发展的两个根本转变,对贮木场的发展出路提出看法。     

秃杉大径级用材林抚育采伐技术的研究

结合国家林业行业标准《秃杉速生丰产林》编制的要点,对秃杉大径级用材林抚育采伐进行了专项调查和研究;结合具体实际培育过程,有的放矢地提出了培育目标、分区生长指标以及抚育采伐的原则、对象和范围,为秃杉大径级用材林的培育提供了技术保障。     

我国马铃薯价格波动规律研究--基于X-12和H-P滤波法的实证分析

马铃薯作为重要的农产品之一,其价格波动受多种因素影响。本文采用X-12模型和H-P滤波法,选取2005年1月至2015年12月全国农产品批发市场价格的月度数据,将其波动分解为季节性、周期性、趋势性和不规则性波动4种类型。结果显示,马铃薯生产的季节性是价格季节性波动的主要原因;成本上升及消费量增加推动价格趋势性上涨但总体趋于平缓;马铃薯价格呈明显的周期性波动,平均周期约为47个月;天气变化、市场突发事件等是价格不规则性波动的主要影响因素。对此,需扎实推进马铃薯生产稳定发展、健全全产业链信息分析预警机制、完善马铃薯价格保险制度,并推进马铃薯一二三产业融合发展,确保薯农收益稳定增长和市场供需基本平衡,促进市场平稳运行。     

改进RBF神经网络在我国大豆价格预测中的应用研究

我国大豆价格受国内外多种因素共同影响,具有非线性、随机性和高噪音等特点,采用传统数学模型进行预测,不仅分析难度大,预测误差也很大。RBF神经网络以其优良的逼近性能而被广泛应用于非线性时间序列预测之中。本文提出一种基于遗传算法优化RBF神经网络的我国大豆价格预测模型,该模型为多维输入单维输出的多变量预测模型,模型的初始输入由大豆价格的历史数据和相关影响因素数据组成。采用遗传算法对RBF神经网络输入层节点数、基函数中心、扩展常数和输出层权值进行优化,模型可以从初始输入变量中自主选择最合适的输入变量组合作为模型的输入。采用2009-2014年的大豆价格数据进行预测研究,用2009-2013年的数据作为训练集,2014年的数据作为测试集,改进RBF神经网络通过自主识别和选取中国大豆进口量、中国消费者信心指数和进口大豆到港分销价格3个因素作为相关影响因素的输入。结果表明:模型预测精度较高、泛化能力较强,能够很好捕捉大豆价格变化规律,可为大豆市场价格的准确预报提供参考借鉴。     

Economic performance and comparative riskiness of different management practices for control of botrytis fruit rot in florida strawberry

Florida strawberry farmers usually rely on weekly calendar fungicide applications to prevent yield loss from Botrytis fruit rot (BFR). The Strawberry Advisory System (SAS), which helps optimize the timing of fungicide applications, is an additional tool in the farmers' arsenal of disease control options. This study uses data from two-year production trials in Florida combined with historical strawberry prices to measure the economic performance of the Calendar and SAS-based BFR management practices under output price risk and producers' risk preferences. We use Monte Carlo simulation to model the effect of the variability in weekly output prices on farm returns. Results reveal that the traditional calendar-based system is not the least risky BFR management option as growers expected to be. SAS-based options such as SAS-Switch and SAS-Luna would be preferred by both risk-neutral and risk-averse producers and are recommended under high disease pressure conditions.     

Logging pattern and landscape changes over the last century at the boreal and deciduous forest transition in Eastern Canada

Forestry practices associated with the industrial era (since ~1900) have altered the natural disturbance regimes and greatly impacted the world’s forests. We quantified twentieth century logging patterns and regional scale consequences in three sub-boreal forest landscapes of Eastern Canada (117,000, 49,400 and 92,300 ha), comparing forestry maps depicting age and forest cover types for early industrial (1930) and present-day (2000) conditions. Results were similar for the three landscapes, indicating large-scale forest change during the twentieth century. In 1930, previous logging activities had been concentrated in the lowlands and along the main hydrographical network, as compared to a more even distribution over the landscapes in 2000, reflecting a decreasing influence of the environmental constraints on forest harvesting. In 1930, old-aged forests (>100 years) accounted for more than 75% of the unlogged areas of the three landscapes, as compared to less than 15% for the present-day conditions. Logging practices have thus inverted the stand age distribution of the landscapes that are currently dominated by young and regenerating stands. The 1930 forest cover types showed a clear relationship with elevation, with conifers located in the lowlands and mixed and deciduous stands restricted to the upper slopes. Between 1930 and 2000, 58–64% of the conifer areas transformed to mixed and deciduous forests, such that no clear altitudinal relationships remained in 2000. We conclude that twentieth century logging practices have strongly altered the preindustrial vegetation patterns in our study area, to the point that ecosystem-based management strategies should be developed to restore conifer dominance, altitudinal gradients, as well as the irregular structure inspired from old forest stands.     

对发挥农产品批发市场价格中心作用的探析

从国际经验来看,农产品批发市场不但是辐射面广、凝聚力强的产销中心,更是农产品价格形成中心.农产品批发市场的规范、有序运行对稳定农产品市场供求,引导农业生产顺利进行具有关键性的作用.而我国农产品批发市场由于发展滞后,运作方式原始、粗放,应有功能没有得到充分发挥.因此,加强基础设施建设,强化制度建设并实行农业产业化是进一步发挥农产品批发市场价格中心作用的关键措施.     

人工用材林木材产量经营模拟研究

以长白落叶松人工用材林为代表,分别对7个立地等级和3种初植密度(分别为2500株/hm2、3300株/hm2和4400株/hm2)的人工用材林木材产量进行经营模拟。根据立地指数曲线确定不同类型林分在不同林龄阶段的平均树高,利用相关模型推算相应林龄阶段的林分平均胸径和林分平均单株材积。建立林分密度定量管理模型,确定不同立地等级不同初植密度林分在理想状态下的间伐时间、间伐强度及相应的木材收获量,为营林生产和科研提供参考和借鉴。     

发挥农产品期货市场功能促进农民增收

本文认为,农产品期货市场特有的价格发现和规避风险的经济功能在农民增收中发挥着重要作用。农民生产规模小、文化水平低、资金少、信息不足是制约我国农民利用期货市场增加收入的主要因素。文章提出了帮助农民利用农产品期货市场增加收入的几点建议:1.加强对农产品期货市场的宣传教育;2.尽快推出大宗农产品期货新品种;3.开展订单农业,积极探索“公司 农户,定单 期货”的经营模式;4.发展农民合作组织;5.应对参与期货市场进行规避风险的农民合作组织及龙头企业给予支持。     

GM（1,1）模型在房地产价格指数预测中的应用

本文简要介绍了灰色预测方法ＧＭ（１,１）模型的构造与模型检验。利用１９９８年１－６月中间房地产北京指数建立了北京市房地产价格指数预测模型。经模型检验,该模型预测、精度等级为一级,预测模型可靠。