小麦条锈病流行程度趋势预测专家系统雏型

本文运用知识工程语言 M·1构造了一个用于小麦条锈病流行程度趋势预测的专家系统雏型。专家的知识用产生式规则来表示。知识库中的知识规则可相对独立,便于知识库的扩充和完善。     

功能概念与结构方案的集成方法

提出了一种将功能概念与结构方案集成的图论方法。在设计对象的能量流有向图、邻接矩阵的基础上，通过矩阵变换导出结构设计十分重要的强连接零件集合以及集合的先后顺序，根据通过制定的规则完成结构方案设计，最后进行了实例验证。     

GI PiCO2: Tissue Specific Monitoring For Improving Patient Outcomes

Improvements in human patient monitoring despite their development in animals, do not always find their way into veterinary clinical use due to financial constraints. Gastrointestinal intraluminal CO₂ partial pressure (Gip₁CO₂) monitoring, however, is not only proving very beneficial in human trauma and critical patient care but is also very likely to become relatively inexpensive. By providing information on the perfusion adequacy of a high risk, critically important tissue, the GI mucosa, GI P₁CO₂ monitoring offers an easily accesible indicator of the efficacy and adequacy of resuscitative interventions. The potential for decreasing morbidity and mortality is enormous. Therefore, the practicing veterinarian should become familiar with GI P₁CO₂ monitoring theory and technology so he or she can be better prepared to incorporate it into practice when in becomes available.     

应用积分GM(1,1)模型进行杉木炭疽病预测预报的研究

以积分生成代替传统的累加生成方法 ,并用双向差分建立积分GM (1,1)灰色预测模型进行杉木炭疽病预测预报的研究 ,结果表明积分GM (1,1)模型能较好地预测杉木炭疽病在三明市的发生     

碧峰峡森林土壤性状研究

碧峰峡不仅是旅游景点,还是多学科研究的天然“实验室”,地处雅安亚热带区,原始森林植被保护完好,土壤垂直分布明显,地质现象复杂,也是大熊猫、金丝猴出没之地。经研究结果：土壤呈酸性,自然肥力高．经相关分析结果：土壤有机质含量和ＣＥＣ等有关理化特性的相关性,较物理性粘粒与ＣＥＣ间更加显著。     

Predicting the spatial distribution of ground flora on large domains using a hierarchical Bayesian model

Accomodation of important sources of uncertainty in ecological models is essential to realistically predicting ecological processes. The purpose of this project is to develop a robust methodology for modeling natural processes on a landscape while accounting for the variability in a process by utilizing environmental and spatial random effects. A hierarchical Bayesian framework has allowed the simultaneous integration of these effects. This framework naturally assumes variables to be random and the posterior distribution of the model provides probabilistic information about the process. Two species in the genus Desmodium were used as examples to illustrate the utility of the model in Southeast Missouri, USA. In addition, two validation techniques were applied to evaluate the qualitative and quantitative characteristics of the predictions.This revised version was published online in May 2005 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

新亚欧大陆桥新疆段受损区段的灰色预测

在对新亚欧大陆桥新疆段受损区段、受损长度及受损频率和受损密度详尽分析的基础上，揭示了陆桥新疆段受损区段的时空分布规律。并依据灾害的时序分布特征，运用灰色原理和方法，根据受损区段数确立阈值和相应的年份序列，分别建立GM（1，1）模型，求出年份序列的序号响应式，并对实际值和理论预测结果进行了拟合检验，模型群的原点误差范围为0.198-1.314之间，平均误差为0.823-1.917，并同时预测了陆桥新疆段2001－2005年间可能的受损区段数。     

闭锁群体BLUP选择下遗传方差和近交系数的变化

采用计算机随机模拟方法模拟了在一个闭锁群体内连续对单个性状进行 1 5个世代选择的情况。选择过程中世代不重叠 ,每个世代的种畜根据动物模型最佳线性无偏预测 (BLUP)法估计的育种值进行选留 ,并在此基础上系统地比较了不同群体规模、公母比例和性状遗传力对群体遗传方差和近交系数变化的影响。结果表明 ,扩大育种群规模、增加公畜比例以及对低遗传力性状进行选择时 ,群体遗传方差降低的速度和近交系数上升的速度会更慢 ,在长期选择时可望获得更大的持续进展和适宜的近交增量     

ANN在森林资源预测中的应用研究

人工神经网络(ANN)方法是基于实例的方法,不需要考虑数学模型的内部结构,不需要假设前提条件,不需要人为地确定因子权重,作为一个黑箱综合地映射研究对象的整体性。应用人工神经网络多步预测方法对甘肃连城林场吐鲁沟营林区有林地面积进行预测,网络模型的最大相对误差为0 080 8％,最小相对误差达到0 0089％,平均为0.038 6％,表明预测值与实际值吻合程度很好,因此模型的精度较高,并且建模简单经预测,林场2000-2004年有林地面积稍有下降趋势,分别为2 873.2 hm2,2 618 7 hm2,2 484.5 hm2,2 346 hm2,2 171 6hm2。