黑龙江省国有林区脆弱异质性家庭对停伐政策的态度及影响因素研究

基于2016年黑龙江省重点国有林区348户家庭的微观调查数据,实证分析黑龙江省国有林区脆弱异质性家庭对停伐政策的态度及影响因素。采用因子分析与综合评价法将348户职工家庭分为脆弱性家庭和非脆弱性家庭,描述性分析2组样本家庭对停伐政策的态度及认知情况,利用多元有序logit模型分析脆弱性与非脆弱性家庭对停伐政策态度的影响因素。结果表明:非脆弱性家庭对停伐政策的了解程度及执行情况的评价均高于脆弱性家庭,脆弱性家庭相对非脆弱性家庭对停伐政策的认可度较高,但是应对风险冲击的能力相对较低。脆弱性家庭和非脆弱性家庭对停伐政策的态度受户主特征、家庭特征以及政策认知特征变量的显著影响,但脆弱性家庭变量参数估计绝对值相对更大,因而停伐政策对脆弱性家庭有着更为敏感和强烈的冲击。     

果洛州畜牧业技术推广服务体系建设现状和建议

畜牧业的发展离不开畜牧业技术推广服务体系的支撑，针对果洛州畜牧业技术推广服务体系现状，提出对策建议。     

黄土低山丘陵及坨甸草原区风蚀规律的研究

本文通过对黄土低山丘陵及坨甸草原区248个风蚀图斑资料的分析,运用线性模型理论,对此地区的风蚀规律进行了研究。获得了下垫面各因素与风蚀量关系的数学模型。找出了影响风蚀的主导因素,并系统阐述了植被覆盖度和土地利用类型对风蚀量大小的影响,且与水蚀规律进行了比较分析。     

Spatio-temporal modelling of broad scale heterogeneity in soil moisture content: a basis for an ecologically meaningful classification of soil landscapes

We describe the classification of landscapes characterised bymineral soil using a model that calculates soil moisture availability on amonthly basis. Scotland is used as a case study area. The model uses potentialsoil moisture deficit, estimated using broad scale (40 × 40 km)climate patterns, in conjunction with meteorological station measurements toobtain finer scale values of climatic soil moisture deficit. Point estimates ofsoil available water are obtained for soil characteristics using appropriatepedotransfer functions, and geostatistical techniques are used to upscale theresults and interpolate to a 1-km grid. Known heterogeneityin soil physical characteristics is used to provide local corrections to thepotential soil moisture deficit, estimated using the climatic variables above.Temporal profiles of monthly water content are modelled for each1-km location and classified into six classes usingunsupervised cluster analysis. The spatial distribution of these classesreflects regional variations in the availability of moisture and energy, onwhich finer-grained topographic patterns are superimposed. In the case study,the broad scale spatial heterogeneity of heathlands and grasslands on mineralsoils in Scotland is shown to be strongly related to the soil moistureclassification. The results can be used in studies investigating the patternsofdistribution of communities at the landscape and regional scale.This revised version was published online in May 2005 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

数字图书馆服务城乡一体化建设研究——以天津市为例

在城乡一体化的发展过程中,数字图书馆的信息服务有利于农民快速有效地利用信息资源,有利于促进城乡社会的全面发展,有利于均衡城乡居民之间的资源分配。笔者结合天津市数字图书馆的发展现状以及存在的问题,提出了为天津市建设城乡一体化发展服务数字图书馆的几项措施。     

大型体育赛事与城市文化传承的关系研究*

大型体育赛事作为一种影响城市精神价值和城市居民生活方式的社会性社会活动，已成为城市政府构建和传承城市文化的重要平台。从规模、形态、效果、生态、传承五个视角透视在推进大型体育赛事与城市体育文化双向驱动过程中应承担的责任和义务，且大型体育赛事在打造城市文化交流平台、展示城市个性靓丽标识、促进城市多元文化融合共生、促成城市文化旅游耦合契机、城市历史脉络的发散延续、城市文化生态的继承演进和形成城市文化功能区的孵化地等方面体现其重要作用和地位。     

农村社会服务人才的研究述评和基本厘定

“三农”问题的根本解决、农村社会的繁荣稳定,都需要大量的农村社会服务人才参与其中.目前只“就农村改革”谈农村实用人才、只“为农业建设”说农业管理者和指导者、只“据农民发展”论农民带头人和专合组织负责人,都不是真正而完全的农村社会服务人才.农村社会服务人才应是具有一定专业知识或专门技能,面向或立足于农村这一微型社会,为其经济、科技、教育、卫生、文化、体育、生态等的科学发展提供创造性、价值性服务的各类劳动者,它具有自身的特点和地位.     

“人的城镇化”与图书馆全方位知识服务

人的城镇化是新型城镇化的核心。在此分析了"人的城镇化"的内涵、中国在"人的城镇化"中面临的问题,并结合作为全国统筹城乡综合配套改革试验区的重庆市的现状,探寻"人的城镇化"问题的根源。基于重庆市南岸区参与新型城镇化工作试点的实践基础,提出在"人的城镇化"进程中,图书馆全方位知识服务的应对策略。     

Performance of DSSAT-Nwheat across a wide range of current and future growing conditions

Crop models are widely used in agricultural impact studies. However, many studies have reported large uncertainties from single-model-based simulation analyses, suggesting the need for multi-model simulation capabilities. In this study, the APSIM-Nwheat model was integrated into the Decision Support System for Agro-technology (DSSAT), which already includes two wheat models, to create multi-model simulation capabilities for wheat cropping systems analysis. The new model in DSSAT (DSSAT-Nwheat) was evaluated using more than 1000 observations from field experiments of 65 treatments, which included a wide range of nitrogen fertilizer applications, water supply (irrigation and rainout shelter), planting dates, elevated atmospheric CO₂ concentrations, temperature variations, cultivars, and soil types in diverse climatic regions that represented the main wheat growing areas of the world.DSSAT-Nwheat reproduced the observed grain yields well with an overall root mean square deviation (RMSD) of 0.89 t/ha (13%). Nitrogen applications, water supply, and planting dates had large effects on observed biomass and grain yields, and the model reproduced these crop responses well. Crop total biomass and nitrogen uptake were reproduced well despite relatively poor simulations of observed leaf area measurements during the growing season. The low sensitivity of biomass simulations to poor simulations of leaf area index (LAI) were due to little changes in intercepted solar radiation at LAI >3 and water and nitrogen stress often limiting photosynthesis and growth rather than light interception at low LAI.The responses of DSSAT-Nwheat to temperature variations and elevated atmospheric CO₂ concentrations were close to observed responses. When compared with the two other DSSAT-wheat models (CERES and CROPSIM), these responses were similar, except for the responses to hot environments, due to different approaches in modeling heat stress effects.The comprehensive evaluation of the DSSAT-Nwheat model with field measurements, including a comparison with two other DSSAT-wheat models, created a multi-model simulation platform that allows the quantification of model uncertainties in wheat impact assessments.     

几种利用乳中尿素氮浓度估测尿氮排泄量模型的评价

本文利用34组国内外报道的荷斯坦牛乳中尿素氮浓度和尿氮排泄量的实测数据，对目前提出的部分利用MUN估测尿氮排泄量的模型进行了比较。结果表明，Zhai（2005）提出的模型[UN（g/d）：10．1×MUN（mg／dL）＋47.3]预测效果较好（P〉0．05）。划分MUN浓度范围分别建立模型可能会提高预测的准确度。此外，根据34组数据做简单回归：UN（g/d）=12．78×MUN（mg/d1）＋28．15（n=34，R2=0．59）。