海南省火龙果溃疡病菌对吡唑醚菌酯敏感性分析

【目的】监测分析海南省火龙果溃疡病菌对吡唑醚菌酯的敏感基线及敏感性水平。【方法】采用菌丝生长速率法测定吡唑醚菌酯对海南省8个火龙果种植市(县)采集到的59株火龙果溃疡病菌的EC₅₀值,采用R语言进行数据分析。【结果】吡唑醚菌酯对供试菌株的EC₅₀范围为0.2540~2.2233μg·mL^-1,EC₅₀均值为0.9841μg·mL^-1;以58株菌株EC₅₀连续性正态分布时的均值0.9627μg·mL^-1作为海南省火龙果溃疡病菌对吡唑醚菌酯的敏感基线,海南省火龙果溃疡病菌均对吡唑醚菌酯表现为敏感;除乐东和白沙地区间敏感性差异显著外,其他地区间敏感性差异均不显著。【结论】海南省火龙果溃疡病菌对吡唑醚菌酯的敏感性差异较小,对吡唑醚菌酯仍较为敏感。     

Bayesian estimation of variance partition coefficients adjusted for imperfect test sensitivity and specificity

The variance partition coefficient (VPC) measures the clustering of infection/disease among individuals with a specific covariate pattern. Covariate-pattern-specific VPCs provide insight to the groups of individuals that exhibit great heterogeneity and should be targeted for intervention. VPCs should be taken into consideration when planning study designs, modeling data and estimating sample sizes. We present a Bayesian discrete mixed model for the estimation of covariate-pattern-specific VPCs when measurement of the infection/disease is based on an imperfect test. The utility of the presented model is demonstrated with three applications. In all cases, imperfect tests biased VPC estimates towards the null but corrected estimates could be obtained by modeling the sensitivity and specificity of the test procedure with beta distributions. The comparison of adjusted VPCs between the intercept only and the fitted models with higher level covariates explained the portion of heterogeneity in the data that was accounted for by the covariates.     

永磁式涡流缓速器制动性能影响因素敏感性分析

在分析永磁式涡流缓速器制动力矩与结构参数关系的基础上,将均匀设计和回归分析方法引入到永磁式涡流缓速器制动性能影响因素敏感性分析中。以某型号的永磁式涡流缓速器为例,建立了制动力矩随转子鼓内半径、永磁体周向长度、气隙宽度、转子鼓轴向宽度和永磁体高度5个结构参数变化的回归模型,重点讨论了结构参数间交互作用以及各结构参数对制动力矩的影响程度,基于均匀试验设计和制动性能敏感性分析的结果,采用全排列法对结构参数进行了优化。     

母体对小麦胚的ABA敏感性和种子休眠性的影响

种子休眠是品种穗发芽抗性的主导因素,休眠特性与母体效应和胚对ABA的敏感性均有密切关系。为了了解母体对小麦胚的ABA敏感性和种子休眠的影响,为抗穗发芽育种提供科学依据,对穗发芽抗性不同的小麦品种及它们正反交F1后代授粉后不同发育阶段的胚进行了ABA敏感性鉴定,并对收获前的籽粒发芽能力进行了测定。结果表明,在种子发育过程中,不同基因型的离体胚萌发能力存在差异,抗穗发芽品种的胚对ABA敏感性明显高于易穗发芽品种,胚对ABA的敏感性与其萌发能力关系密切,随着萌发能力的升高,胚对ABA的敏感性降低。在成熟种子中,F1的休眠性偏向于抗性亲本。尽管成熟种子和胚的休眠表现出一定的母体效应,但母体对发育至成熟过程中胚的ABA敏感性并没有影响。因而,母体对种子休眠的影响可能与胚的ABA敏感性无关。     

中国粮食主产区参考作物蒸散量演变特征与成因分析

在全球变暖的背景下,参考作物蒸散量（reference crop evapotranspiration,ET0）的改变及其空间分布势必对中国粮食主产区农业水资源规划、农业用水管理等产生重要影响。本文将中国粮食主产区划分为温带湿润半湿润地区（I区）、温带干旱半干旱地区（II区）、暖温带半湿润地区（III区）和亚热带湿润地区（IV区）4个子区域,基于粮食主产区265个站点1961-2013年53a气象数据,采用FAO-56 Penman-Monteith公式计算各站点逐日ET0,利用ArcGIS空间插值、Mann-Kendall趋势检验、敏感性分析和贡献率分析等方法,对该区域ET0的时空分布规律及其成因进行分析。结果表明：（1）近53a来,中国粮食主产区年均ET0为878.9mm,整体呈显著下降趋势,速率为0.47mm·a^-1（P＜0.05）,I、II区和IV区年均ET0分别为741.8、1079.8和924.2mm且均有所减小,但变化趋势并不明显,III区年均ET0为940.2mm,呈极显著下降趋势,速率为1.21mm·a^-1（P＜0.01）。（2）全区及I-IV区ET0最敏感气象因子均为相对湿度,其敏感系数分别为-1.060、-1.232、-0.784、-1.114和-1.009。（3）全区及I-III区对ET0变化贡献最大的气象因子为风速,IV区为相对湿度。（4）风速的减小是造成粮食主产区全区及I-III区ET0减小的首要原因,风速减小和日照时数缩短是造成IV区ET0减小的主要原因。     

连续流粮食干燥控制系统变量分析与结构设

针对粮食干燥影响因素多且不确定,以及测量结果存在滞后的问题,提出了连续流粮食干燥被控变量和控制变量的选择方法,通过实验数据对影响粮食干燥过程的各因素及各因素对粮食出口含水率的灵敏度进行了分析.结果表明,影响较大的因素有排粮电动机转速、热风温度、粮食初始含水率,影响较小的因素有环境温度、热风和冷却风风量、粮食初始温度.设计了连续流粮食干燥过程自动控制系统的控制结构,引入微分环节可有效抑制因测量而造成的滞后现象.     

Estimating chlorophyll content from hyperspectral vegetation indices: Modeling and validation

Leaf chlorophyll content, a good indicator of photosynthesis activity, mutations, stress and nutritional state, is of special significance to precision agriculture. Recent studies have demonstrated the feasibility of retrieval of chlorophyll content from hyperspectral vegetation indices composed by the reflectance of specific bands. In this paper, a set of vegetation indices belonged to three classes (normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), modified simple ratio (MSR) index and the modified chlorophyll absorption ratio index (MCARI, TCARI) and the integrated forms (MCARI/OSAVI and TCARI/OSAVI)) were tested using the PROSPECT and SAIL models to explore their potentials in chlorophyll content estimation. Different bands combinations were also used to derive the modified vegetation indices. In the sensitivity study, four new formed indices (MSR[705,750], MCARI[705,750], TCARI/OSAVI[705,750] and MCARI/OSAVI[705,750]) were proved to have better linearity with chlorophyll content and resistant to leaf area index (LAI) variations by taking into account the effect of quick saturation at 670 nm with relatively low chlorophyll content. Validation study was also conducted at canopy scale using the ground truth data in the growth duration of winter wheat (chlorophyll content and reflectance data). The results showed that the integrated indices TCARI/OSAVI[705,750] and MCARI/OSAVI[705,750] are most appropriate for chlorophyll estimation with high correlation coefficients R² of 0.8808 and 0.9406, respectively, because more disturbances such as shadow, soil reflectance and nonphotosynthetic materials are taken into account. The high correlation between the vegetation indices obtained in the developmental stages of wheat and Hyperion data (R² of 0.6798 and 0.7618 for TCARI/OSAVI[705,750] and MCARI/OSAVI[705,750], respectively) indicated that these two integrated index can be used in practice to estimate the chlorophylls of different types of corns.     

基于Downhill-Simplex算法的观测数据与作物生长模型同化方法研究

以夏玉米叶面积指数（LAI）、贮存器官干重（WSO）、地上总干重（TAGP）以及土壤水分含量（SM）为结合点,建立了基于Downhill—Simplex算法的作物生长模型WOFOST同化多种地面观测数据的一般方法或流程：开展观测数据与作物生长模型同化方法的正确性验证→利用Downhill—Simplex算法进行WOFOST模型的敏感性分析一选择敏感参数组合→通过优化效果确定待优化参数→利用新的观测数据对待优化参数进行优化,从而实现了观测数据与作物生长模型的同化,提升了模型的模拟能力。同化过程中遴选出的WOFOST模型的待优化参数主要包括比叶面积、最大CO2同化速率、初始地上部总干物重、根深最大日增量和初始土壤有效水等。     

广西不同小菜蛾种群对印楝素和阿维菌素的敏感性研究

室内浸叶法测定结果表明:广西不同小菜蛾种群对印楝素的敏感性差异较小,LC50值在0.07￣0.23mg/L之间,与敏感性最低的石埠种群相比,相对毒力指数为1￣3.29;对阿维菌素对的的敏感性差异较大,LC50值在2.08￣17.02mg/L之间,与敏感性最低的仁乡种群相比,相对毒力指数为1￣8.18。     

猴痘病毒PCR检测方法的建立

从GenBank上调取猴痘病毒的基因序列,经过分析,找出了猴痘病毒的特异性靶基因序列F3L片段,人工合成猴痘病毒MPV(AF380138)F3L基因片段(48048-48509bp)并插入质粒,作为病毒检测的模拟阳性模板。根据该序列设计并合成PCR引物,对模拟的阳性模板进行扩增,结果能扩增出与目的片段大小一致的条带。建立了PCR检测方法,经条件优化后,对鸡痘、禽痘、羊痘等14种相似病毒核酸进行PCR扩增,发现具有良好的特异性。PCR方法能扩增出0.3pg的阳性模板,显示建立的PCR方法具有高效、快速、特异、灵敏的特点,可用于口岸猴痘病毒的检疫。