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Brett A. Bryan 《Biological conservation》2010,143(7):1737-1750
Identifying good investments in environmental management is complex as several prioritization strategies may be used and significant uncertainty often surrounds cost, benefits, and agency budgets. In this paper I developed a model for robust portfolio selection based on preference programming to support cost-effective environmental investment decisions under uncertainty and applied it to the South Australian Murray-Darling Basin. Benefits and costs of 46 investment alternatives (called targets) for managing natural capital and ecosystem services were quantified and the associated uncertainty estimated. Thirty-six investment portfolios were selected using mathematical programming under four investment prioritization strategies (cost-effectiveness (E-max), cost-effectiveness including a suite of pre-committed (or core) costs (E-max∗), cost-only (C-rank), and benefit-only (B-rank)), three decision rules (pessimistic, most likely, and optimistic), and three budget scenarios (minimum, most likely, maximum). Compared to the optimally performing investment strategy E-max, the E-max∗ and C-rank strategies only slightly reduced portfolio performance and altered portfolio composition. However, the B-rank strategy reduced performance by half and radically changed composition. Uncertainty in costs, benefits, and available budgets also strongly influenced portfolio performance and composition. I conclude that in this case study the consideration of uncertainty was at least as important as investment strategy in effective environmental decision-making. Targets whose selection was less sensitive to uncertainty were identified as more robust investments. The results have informed the allocation of AU$69 million in the study area and the techniques are readily adaptable to similar conservation and environmental investment decisions in other areas at a variety of scales. 相似文献
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