Impact of climate change on maize yield in China from 1979 to 2016

Climate change severely impacts agricultural production, which jeopardizes food security. China is the second largest maize producer in the world and also the largest consumer of maize. Analyzing the impact of climate change on maize yields can provide effective guidance to national and international economics and politics. Panel models are unable to determine the group-wise heteroscedasticity, cross-sectional correlation and autocorrelation of datasets, therefore we adopted the feasible generalized least square(FGLS) model to evaluate the impact of climate change on maize yields in China from 1979–2016 and got the following results:(1) During the 1979–2016 period, increases in temperature negatively impacted the maize yield of China. For every 1°C increase in temperature, the maize yield was reduced by 5.19 kg 667 m–2(1.7%). Precipitation increased only marginally during this time, and therefore its impact on the maize yield was negligible. For every 1 mm increase in precipitation, the maize yield increased by an insignificant amount of 0.043 kg 667 m–2(0.014%).(2) The impacts of climate change on maize yield differ spatially, with more significant impacts experienced in southern China. In this region, a 1°C increase in temperature resulted in a 7.49 kg 667 m–2 decrease in the maize yield, while the impact of temperature on the maize yield in northern China was insignificant. For every 1 mm increase in precipitation, the maize yield increased by 0.013 kg 667 m–2 in southern China and 0.066 kg 667 m–2 in northern China.(3) The resilience of the maize crop to climate change is strong. The marginal effect of temperature in both southern and northern China during the 1990–2016 period was smaller than that for the 1979–2016 period.     

‘哈伯’南天竹组织培养和快速繁殖

为建立‘哈伯’南天竹组织培养和种苗繁育技术体系,以半木质化带芽茎段为外植体材料开展植株再生研究。通过观察对比试验法、L₉(3⁴)正交试验设计完全随机法、极差分析、显著性检验、LSD多重比较,探讨了‘哈伯’南天竹组培的最适培养基配方。试验结果表明：最佳诱导培养基为MS + 6-BA 2.0 mg/L + IBA 0.1 mg/L +蔗糖30 g/L,诱导萌动率71.77%,成活率85.51%;最佳增殖培养基为WPM +6-BA 1.5 mg/L + IBA 0.01 mg/L + 蔗糖30 g/L,增殖系数6.3;最佳生根培养基为1/2 MS+ IBA 0.5 mg/L + NAA 1.0 mg/L + 蔗糖20 g/L + AC 0.2 g/L,生根率97.63%;试管苗移入泥炭土:珍珠岩=3:2(V/V)混合基质中,移栽成活率96.67%。该试验建立了高效稳定的组培快繁技术体系,得到的组培苗后代能够稳定的保持母本优良性状,为工厂化育苗提供了技术支撑。     

都市餐饮企业的净菜需求影响因素分析——以北京市为例

净菜的广泛使用能提高餐饮企业的出餐率,减少其后厨面积、劳动用工和厨余垃圾。基于北京地区708份餐饮企业净菜需求的问卷调查样本,运用垄断竞争市场理论和二元选择模型分析了影响餐饮企业净菜使用行为的具体因素。研究发现,对净菜了解程度不够和净菜价格偏高是制约餐饮企业使用净菜的主要因素,具有不同个体特征和环境特征的餐饮企业选择净菜的倾向性不同。建议在餐饮业大力开展净菜宣传科普工作;大力扶持净菜加工企业和发展相关技术支撑体系以降低净菜价格。     

杉木第3代种子园多元素配方施肥效应研究

杉木种子园为培育高产稳产杉木良种提供重要保障,在林业生产中具有积极意义。通过试验研究,探究杉木3代种子园土壤养分丰缺情况、养分间的平衡规律,确定杉木种子园最佳肥料配比和施肥量,以期为闽北低山丘陵红壤分布区杉木种子园提供推荐施肥配方。采用“3414”配方施肥设计方案,对闽北第3代杉木种子园开展N、P、K、Ca、Mg、B、Mo等元素施肥试验。分别设计大量元素氮、磷、钾三因素施肥水平（并增设施用钼肥处理）、中微量元素钙、镁、硼三因素施肥水平,以球果数量（质量）、出籽率、种子产量、胸径等为评价指标,拟合肥料效应函数方程,研究各养分间的作用规律,并提出最佳施肥配比和施肥量。结果表明：种子园土壤N、P、K、Ca、Mg养分含量较低,B含量属于中等水平,而Mo含量较高;N、P、Mg以及N-K、Ca-B肥料联合对种子园产量的影响达到显著或极显著水平,而单施某一肥料效应较小,其中单施K、Ca、B几乎没有效果,而肥料联合施用效果较好。综合效应分析结果,得出种子园最大产量施肥量组合为：每株施尿素100 g+过磷酸钙897 g+氯化钾150 g+石灰150 g+硫酸镁105 g+硼砂75 g,并配施钼肥。N、P₂O₅、K₂O、CaO、Mg、B、Mo的用量依次为46.0、107.7、90.0、75.0、31.4、2.3、5.0 g,其配比为N:P₂O₅:K₂O:CaO:Mg:B:Mo=1.0:2.3:2.0:1.6:0.7:0.05:0.1。多元素配方施肥能很好地改善杉木种子园产量和质量,单株球果产量、球果单粒重、出籽率及种子园产量等指标均比不施肥的母树有大幅度提高。本研究施肥方案,理论上种子园产量可达45.99~95.65 g/株,大量元素施肥试验的产量达到理论产量的80%~86%,中微量元素施肥试验的产量为理论产量的70%左右。现实种子园平均产量大约是预测产量的40%,通过合理配方施肥有望大幅度提高杉木3代种子园产量。     

数值模型结构不确定性对模拟结果的影响分析

以内蒙古鄂托克旗为例,基于GMS中的MODFLOW模块构建了地下水流数值模拟模型,分析了模型结构(含水层厚度、参数分区)与模型参数不确定性因素对模拟结果的影响.研究结果表明:含水层不确定情景(含水层下边界概化为隔水底板平均值870 m)与实际情况水头差值绝对值的累计和最大为701 m,对模拟结果起了主控作用;当含水层下边界概化为910,940 m时,累计和分别增加为1 013,1 593 m;与仅考虑单个不确定性因素相比,同时考虑模型参数与含水层不确定情景累计和最大为738 m,同时考虑参数分区与含水层不确定情景累计和最大为791 m.因此,在构建地下水流数值模拟模型时,应优先考虑含水层空间结构概化的合理程度,同时考虑多个不确定性因素对模拟结果的综合影响,使地下水数值模拟模型能更精确地反映真实的地下水流状况.     

王正非林火蔓延模型改进研究

王正非林火蔓延模型是目前国内比较先进的森林火灾蔓延模型,但是由于林火行为的复杂性,此模型在准确率和普适性方面仍存在许多不足。本文结合已有的成果进一步改进王正非模型,增加了可燃物湿度对林火蔓延速度的影响,改进了林火初始速度的计算方式。针对各种坡度对林火蔓延行为的影响给出了一个计算公式。与改进前相比,改进后的模型使其对林火蔓延情况的预估更为精准。     

河北省杂粮生产现状及生产布局展望

河北省是杂粮生产大省,且种类繁多。为稳定河北省杂粮生产发展,进一步调整河北省种植业结构提供参考依据,本文总结了河北省杂粮的历史生产现状,包括面积、单产、总产以及河北省各地市杂粮的分布,试图探索杂粮的生产布局与趋势,同时针对河北省杂粮历史单产水平变化趋势,分析了造成单产变化的成因,并简单提出建议。最后提出河北省杂粮生产布局的展望,将河北省杂粮生产区域布局划分为优势主产区、战略提升区、稳步发展区三个功能区。     

Cohort‐specific variation in juvenile coho salmon habitat use

In this study, we examined summer and fall freshwater rearing habitat use by juvenile coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) in the quickly urbanising Big Lake drainage in south‐central Alaska. Habitat use was assessed by regressing fish count data against habitat survey information across thirty study sites using generalised linear mixed models. Habitat associations were examined by age‐0 and age‐1+ cohorts separately, providing an opportunity to compare habitat use across different juvenile coho salmon life stages during freshwater rearing. Regression results indicated that the age‐0 cohorts were strongly associated with shallow, wide stream reaches with in‐stream vegetation, whereas age‐1+ cohorts were associated with deeper stream reaches. Furthermore, associations between fork length and habitat characteristics suggest cohort‐specific habitat use patterns are distinct from those attributable to fish size. Habitat use information generated from this study is being used to guide optimal fish passage restoration planning in the Big Lake drainage. Evidence for habitat use partitioning by age cohort during freshwater juvenile rearing indicates that pooling age cohorts into a single “juvenile” stage for the purposes of watershed management may mask important habitat use dynamics.     

同源四倍体及其原二倍体黑皮冬瓜光合光响应模型筛选

为了筛选出最适合黑皮冬瓜Benincasa hispida (Thunb.) Cogn.的光合光响应模型,为其育种提供理论依据,以同源四倍体及其原二倍体黑皮冬瓜为试验材料,对8种经典的光合光响应模型适用性进行了比较分析。结果表明：二次多项式能够表现出光抑制情况,但在拟合过程中出现暗呼吸速率为正值、光补偿点为负值及无法解释当光强达到饱和后光合速率快速下降的问题;直角双曲线、非直角双曲线及指数函数Ⅰ、指数函数Ⅱ无法直接求取光饱和点、光补偿点,结合常用的光饱和点的计算方法得到的光饱和点与实测值均存在较大的偏差,且指数函数Ⅱ在计算光饱和点时表现出明显的人为性,也无法拟合光抑制情况,但4种模型拟合得到的光补偿点均与实测值相差不大;指数修正模型因系数β为负值,无法求取四倍体黑皮冬瓜材料的光饱和点和最大净光合速率,且拟合得到的四倍体黑皮冬瓜的光补偿点明显低于实测值;直角双曲线修正模型计算得到的暗呼吸速率及二倍体黑皮冬瓜的光饱和点明显低于实测值,但获得的四倍体及其二倍体的最大净光合速率与实测值最接近,说明其在拟合最大净光合速率上有优势;整体上分段函数计算得到的黑皮冬瓜的各光合参数与实测值最为接近,与实测值的平均相对误差最小,也能很好的拟合发生光抑制部分的光响应曲线。分段函数拟合同源四倍体及其原二倍体黑皮冬瓜光合光响应曲线效果较其他模型效果好,分段函数模型为黑皮冬瓜最适合的光合光响应模型。     

中国粮食进口安全综合评价研究——基于超效率DEA模型

在对粮食及粮食进口安全内涵加以界定的基础上,从粮食数量、粮食质量、粮食价格、粮食贸易、国家经济、生态环境6个方面分析中国粮食进口安全的影响因素,基于超效率DEA模型构建中国粮食进口安全评价模型。对1992—2015年中国粮食进口安全状况进行评价,结果表明,1992—2015年中国粮食进口处于安全状态,粮食进口对我国粮食价格安全和生态安全的影响程度较小,对数量安全、质量安全、贸易安全和经济安全的影响程度较大。