我国马铃薯价格波动规律研究--基于X-12和H-P滤波法的实证分析

马铃薯作为重要的农产品之一,其价格波动受多种因素影响。本文采用X-12模型和H-P滤波法,选取2005年1月至2015年12月全国农产品批发市场价格的月度数据,将其波动分解为季节性、周期性、趋势性和不规则性波动4种类型。结果显示,马铃薯生产的季节性是价格季节性波动的主要原因;成本上升及消费量增加推动价格趋势性上涨但总体趋于平缓;马铃薯价格呈明显的周期性波动,平均周期约为47个月;天气变化、市场突发事件等是价格不规则性波动的主要影响因素。对此,需扎实推进马铃薯生产稳定发展、健全全产业链信息分析预警机制、完善马铃薯价格保险制度,并推进马铃薯一二三产业融合发展,确保薯农收益稳定增长和市场供需基本平衡,促进市场平稳运行。     

改进RBF神经网络在我国大豆价格预测中的应用研究

我国大豆价格受国内外多种因素共同影响,具有非线性、随机性和高噪音等特点,采用传统数学模型进行预测,不仅分析难度大,预测误差也很大。RBF神经网络以其优良的逼近性能而被广泛应用于非线性时间序列预测之中。本文提出一种基于遗传算法优化RBF神经网络的我国大豆价格预测模型,该模型为多维输入单维输出的多变量预测模型,模型的初始输入由大豆价格的历史数据和相关影响因素数据组成。采用遗传算法对RBF神经网络输入层节点数、基函数中心、扩展常数和输出层权值进行优化,模型可以从初始输入变量中自主选择最合适的输入变量组合作为模型的输入。采用2009-2014年的大豆价格数据进行预测研究,用2009-2013年的数据作为训练集,2014年的数据作为测试集,改进RBF神经网络通过自主识别和选取中国大豆进口量、中国消费者信心指数和进口大豆到港分销价格3个因素作为相关影响因素的输入。结果表明:模型预测精度较高、泛化能力较强,能够很好捕捉大豆价格变化规律,可为大豆市场价格的准确预报提供参考借鉴。     

Economic performance and comparative riskiness of different management practices for control of botrytis fruit rot in florida strawberry

Florida strawberry farmers usually rely on weekly calendar fungicide applications to prevent yield loss from Botrytis fruit rot (BFR). The Strawberry Advisory System (SAS), which helps optimize the timing of fungicide applications, is an additional tool in the farmers' arsenal of disease control options. This study uses data from two-year production trials in Florida combined with historical strawberry prices to measure the economic performance of the Calendar and SAS-based BFR management practices under output price risk and producers' risk preferences. We use Monte Carlo simulation to model the effect of the variability in weekly output prices on farm returns. Results reveal that the traditional calendar-based system is not the least risky BFR management option as growers expected to be. SAS-based options such as SAS-Switch and SAS-Luna would be preferred by both risk-neutral and risk-averse producers and are recommended under high disease pressure conditions.     

GM（1,1）模型在房地产价格指数预测中的应用

本文简要介绍了灰色预测方法ＧＭ（１,１）模型的构造与模型检验。利用１９９８年１－６月中间房地产北京指数建立了北京市房地产价格指数预测模型。经模型检验,该模型预测、精度等级为一级,预测模型可靠。     

发挥农产品期货市场功能促进农民增收

本文认为,农产品期货市场特有的价格发现和规避风险的经济功能在农民增收中发挥着重要作用。农民生产规模小、文化水平低、资金少、信息不足是制约我国农民利用期货市场增加收入的主要因素。文章提出了帮助农民利用农产品期货市场增加收入的几点建议:1.加强对农产品期货市场的宣传教育;2.尽快推出大宗农产品期货新品种;3.开展订单农业,积极探索“公司 农户,定单 期货”的经营模式;4.发展农民合作组织;5.应对参与期货市场进行规避风险的农民合作组织及龙头企业给予支持。     

对发挥农产品批发市场价格中心作用的探析

从国际经验来看,农产品批发市场不但是辐射面广、凝聚力强的产销中心,更是农产品价格形成中心.农产品批发市场的规范、有序运行对稳定农产品市场供求,引导农业生产顺利进行具有关键性的作用.而我国农产品批发市场由于发展滞后,运作方式原始、粗放,应有功能没有得到充分发挥.因此,加强基础设施建设,强化制度建设并实行农业产业化是进一步发挥农产品批发市场价格中心作用的关键措施.     

冬枣价格波动的需求分析及对策研究

通过分析冬枣市场价格变动趋势,从冬枣品质的下降、替代果品的出现及采购商讨价还价能力3个方面分析了影响冬枣需求的因素。结果表明,需求不足是影响冬枣价格的主要因素,进而提出尝试＂冬枣树银行＂种植模式、延长冬枣产业链、建立枣农合作组织来刺激需求,保障枣农权益。     

基于博弈论的法律责任与审计师定价策略

以完美贝叶斯均衡赛局模型,研究审计师的法律责任是否会影响审计师的初次审计定价策略。研究发现,若考虑审计师的法律责任,当初次审计合约的签约与前期审计服务质量无直接关联性时,审计定价策略会产生分离均衡;当初次审计合约的签约与前期审计服务质量有直接关联性时,会产生混同均衡。     

蚕茧价格变化规律及管理对策

对1992年以来我国蚕茧价格和蚕茧供求变化进行分析,研究蚕茧价格的波动规律以及蚕茧均衡价格产生的条件,提出蚕茧价格管理的构想与建议。     

Consumer willingness to pay price premiums for environmentally certified wood products in the U.S.

Since its inception nearly 15 years ago, environmental certification has become an important issue in the wood products industry. One research question that has been examined is the potential willingness for supply chain participants to pay a premium for certified products or raw materials to offset certification costs. This study examines stated willingness to pay for four wood products from the perspective of U.S. consumers. Data was collected in 1995 and 2005 from the population of U.S. residential consumers to detect changes in willingness to pay for certified wood products along time and increase the statistical strength of the model. Results of an ordered probit model suggest that higher probabilities of paying a premium are associated to consumers who seek out certified products and who believe certification can lessen environmental impacts such as tropical deforestation. There is also a strong relationship between respondent income and willingness-to-pay. Despite the current industry structure in the U.S. that has adopted a mass-certification strategy that does not place price premiums on certified products, results suggest that such premiums may exist for imported certified tropical wood products. Analysis of marginal effects suggests consumers' willingness to pay a 10% premium for three of the four certified items studied. Niche markets may potentially be exploited in the U.S. and price premiums captured by wood products manufacturers in tropical regions and/or American importers.