咖啡黑小蠹的发生规律及药剂防治研究

咖啡黑小蠢是近年在兴隆华侨农场严重危害中粒种咖啡的重要害虫。据1989年对4—5年生咖啡树调查,植株受害率100％,枝条受害率29.7—82.5％,虫害枯枝率7.65—17.8％。该虫以雌成虫钻蛀咖啡枝条为害,幼虫和成虫取食蛀道壁上的真菌菌丝。田间种群数量通常在3月上旬开始剧增,3月中下旬为高峰期,7月至10月田间虫口极少,11月以后逐渐有虫口及虫枯枝出现。温度是影响虫口波动的主要因素。2.5％溴氰菊酶、25％杀虫双、40％乐菊酯各兑水1000倍对成虫直接触杀效果显著,死亡率均为100％。48％乐斯本、40％氧化乐果400—800倍液等12种杀虫剂田间喷雾对咖啡枝条蛀洞内的成虫、蛹、幼虫防效均不明显。     

浅谈建立郑州市道路路面养护管理系统

路面管理系统是通过对路面运行状况、使用性能、使用周期、进行对比、分析，预测路面管理的最佳养护预算投资并在最佳养护经济投资条件等各种因素限制下，寻求道路养护管理最佳战略决策。     

Assessing the potential impacts of alternative landscape designs on amphibian population dynamics

An individual-based, spatially explicit population model was used to predict the consequences of future land-use alternatives for populations of four amphibian species in two central Iowa (midwest USA) agricultural watersheds. The model included both breeding and upland habitat and incorporated effects of climatic variation and demographic stochasticity. Data requirements of the model include life history characteristics, dispersal behavior, habitat affinities, as well as land use and landcover in geographic information systems databases. Future scenarios were ranked according to change in breeder abundance, saturation, and distribution, compared to baseline conditions. Sensitivity of simulation results to changes in model parameters was also examined. Simulated results suggest that while all four species modeled are likely to persist under present and future scenario conditions, two may be more at risk from future landscape change. Although the study species are all widespread generalists regarded as having a low conservation priority, they depend on wetlands and ponds, increasingly endangered habitats in agricultural landscapes. Broader conservation strategies in the region would ensure that these currently common organisms do not become the endangered species of the future.This revised version was published online in May 2005 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

晚稻稻瘟病BP神经网络分区预报

应用相关分析方法分析了浙江省19个县1988～1999年晚稻稻瘟病发病与有关环境因子的关系,筛选了8个气象因子用于晚稻稻瘟病发生程度长期预报。根据各预报因子与稻瘟病发病程度相关性,采用邻接二维图论聚类分析法,将19个点(县)划分为4个生态区。每个生态区内运用BP神经网络技术建立模型,并进行拟合和试报。1997～1999年试报验证,在划分稻瘟病生态区的基础上,应用BP神经网络模型对稻瘟病进行长期预测预报是可行的,3年试报成功率分别是78.95％、84.21％和78.95％。文中还对该方法与过去常用的预报方法的试报结果作了比较。     

日本金龟子在中国适生区的预测

日本金龟子PopilliajaponicaNewman是一种重要的害虫 ,主要危害草坪和观赏植物。日本金龟子原产日本 ,现在已经分布于许多国家 ,并且造成了严重的经济损失。目前中国尚未有该虫分布。本文通过以计算机为基础的生态气候模型—CLIMEX ,利用气候数据来预测日本金龟子适合的地理分布区 ,预测结果是日本金龟子可以在中国大约 31个市、县地区生存 ,主要是沿海地区和长江流域 ,尤其是中国的中东部地区     

农作物病虫预报可视化发展与应用前景

农作物病虫预报可视化具有形象生动、信息传递快捷、覆盖面广等优点,是更好发挥预报作用的最佳方式。大范围实施这种预报发布形式的条件,目前已基本成熟,经过努力,必然会在不长的时间内取得长足进展。     

变叶海棠种群多样性的形成与分化研究

 采用杂种指数和形象化散点图法, 探明了变叶海棠以兼性无融合生殖方式与陇东海棠和花叶海棠产生渗入杂交变异, 又以无融合生殖方式保持新产生变异的遗传, 经过数千万年的世代繁衍,形成现今这样极其复杂多样的渗入杂交群体, 该群体为3 个种的杂交复合体。由于杂种的全部或部分能育子代中发生的基因重组和增加基因的突变, 丰富了物种的基因库, 从而深入的揭示了变叶海棠具有多种高抗性的遗传机理。在变叶海棠居群内保护或栽植适量的陇东海棠和花叶海棠, 对于保持和促进变叶海棠多样性的形成与分化具有重要意义。     

Population dynamics and habitat connectivity affecting the spatial spread of populations – a simulation study

In this paper we show how the spatialconfiguration of habitat quality affects the spatial spread of apopulation in a heterogeneous environment. Our main result is thatfor species with limited dispersal ability and a landscape withisolated habitats, stepping stone patches of habitat greatlyincrease the ability of species to disperse. Our results showthat increasing reproductive rate first enables and thenaccelerates spatial spread, whereas increasing the connectivity has aremarkable effect only in case of low reproductive rates. Theimportance of landscape structure varied according to thedemographic characteristics of the population. To show this wepresent a spatially explicit habitat model taking into accountpopulation dynamics and habitat connectivity. The population dynamicsare based on a matrix projection model and are calculated on eachcell of a regular lattice. The parameters of the Leslie matrix dependon habitat suitability as well as density. Dispersal between adjacentcells takes place either unrestricted or with higher probability inthe direction of a higher habitat quality (restricted dispersal).Connectivity is maintained by corridors and stepping stones ofoptimal habitat quality in our fragmented model landscape containinga mosaic of different habitat suitabilities. The cellular automatonmodel serves as a basis for investigating different combinations ofparameter values and spatial arrangements of cells with high and lowquality.This revised version was published online in May 2005 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

台湾稻螟发生期预测技术与应用

作者采用室内外结合的方法,根据台湾稻螟幼虫、蛹、卵的形态特征,制定了台湾稻螟分龄分级标准,并按所测定的相应虫态历期,采用分龄分级法进行了3年的发生期预测验证,平均准确率达96.7％,用于指导大田防治1.93万hm~2,平均防治效果达85.8％。     

云南省稻瘟病,小麦锈病预测专家系统

基于稻瘟病、小麦锈病预测领域专家知识,以及借助模式识别势函数法实现的自学习、自提取的知识,采用正向和反向精确推理控制策略,首次建立云南省水稻穗瘟病、小麦条锈病预测专家系统,1994～1995年预测结果与实际情况基本一致。系统创造性地采用全屏幕编辑树图的知识输入法和森林表示技术对知识库进行管理,便于知识库的扩充和维护。推理结果、推理路径及知识查询以彩色图形方式显示,对于学习领域专家的实践经验具有独特优点。