基于格网的GCM数据修订分析未来海南岛农业水热资源的变化特征

以海南岛为研究区域，选用5个大气环流模式（GCMs）1970−1999年的逐日输出数据和同期地面气象观测数据，使用空间插值降尺度到0.5°×0.5°格网。以格网单元为基础，应用系统误差修订（修正值法或比值法）和多模式集合平均方法（贝叶斯模型平均法BMA或等权重平均法EW），训练与验证GCMs输出值并进行综合修订。在此基础上，分析RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下，未来海南岛近期（2020−2059年）和远期（2060−2099年）农业水热资源，包括年平均气温、1月平均气温、≥10℃积温、≥20℃积温、年降水量、1月降水量和≥20℃界限温度生长期间降水量的变化特征。结果表明：GCMs输出值的系统误差和BMA权重系数在格网间存在较大的空间差异，且GCMs输出值低估逐日最高气温约3.55℃，高估逐日最低气温约1.19℃，逐日降水量仅为观测值的54.35%。基于格网的综合修订，可有效降低GCMs输出值在空间上的不确定性，BMA与EW的修订结果相似，均优于单一GCM模式。通过格网BMA综合修订后，最高气温、最低气温和降水量在验证期的相关系数r分别约提升0.10、0.07和0.06；均方根误差RMSE分别约降低2.38℃、1.01℃和1.01mm；较单一GCM相对观测值的偏差平均约减少3.25℃、1.13℃和25.67mm。未来海南岛农业热量资源在空间上主要表现为从中部向外围逐渐升高，高温主要分布在南部至西部沿海地区，年平均气温的增幅全岛较为接近，1月平均气温、≥10℃积温和≥20℃积温的增幅分别表现为由东向西、由北向南和由中部向外围递减。在时间上，RCP8.5情景下所有农业热量资源均为极显著增加且增温最快，RCP4.5情景为先增加后平缓，RCP2.6情景较为平缓，远期无显著增温。未来海南岛降水资源在空间上转为由东向西逐步递减的格局，南部和北部沿海地区降水变率增加，西部和中部降水变率减少，在时间上无显著变化趋势。随着未来海南岛气候变暖和降水格局的改变，农作物适宜种植面积扩大，会对农业生产带来巨大挑战，应提前布局，做好趋利避害。     

腐蚀管道剩余寿命的性能衰减模型研究

管道在长期的运行过程中，由于介质和土壤的腐蚀性，管材的微塑性变形、结构转变和渗氢等。不仅会使管道出现各种腐蚀损伤，而且还存在着老化效应和氢化作用，导致管材的脆变并改变材料的塑性，使机械性质参数发生衰退，从管材性能衰减和腐蚀损伤角度研究了管道的剩余寿命，提出了根据结构承载能力的极限值确定塑性变形时工作寿命的方法，为了确定剩余使用寿命，对剪切损伤率和屈服性能比等概念进行定义，在掌握管材金属剪切损害率和屈服性能比的时间特性基础上，建立了剩余寿命计算模型。并给出了算例。     

辣椒夏季品比试验报告

为了考察我公司新推广品种及新配组合在高温伏旱状况下的适应性，我们于2003年5月7日在公司试验基地进行了品种对比试验。结果表明新推广品种中有九个品种或组合为极耐热或耐热，一个品种耐热性稍差。新配组合中部分表现优良，有推广前景。     

钢筋混凝土结构锈蚀损伤定位

对钢筋混凝土结构锈蚀损伤定位进行了研究,以频率变化平方比作为锈蚀损伤参数,从理论上证明该参数是锈蚀损伤位置的函数。锈蚀钢筋混凝土结构试验结果表明预测的损伤位置和实际的损伤位置较一致,模态参数用于检测混凝土结构构件中的损伤,为大型结构的鉴定和评估提供了新的途径。     

森林可燃物的燃烧性与化学组成

从五种针叶树叶(白皮云杉、红松、兴安落叶松、黑皮油松、樟子松)以及六种阔叶树叶(柳树、白桦、杨树、黄波罗、水曲柳、蒙古栎)的春季和秋季样品的水分、灰分(水溶性和水不溶性)、醚抽提物、含氮量、含磷量的分析得出:兴安落叶松和柳树的可燃性最小。这一结果与热重分析所得结果相符合。     

药物防治蝇害的研究进展

蝇害已经成为危害规模化畜禽养殖的重要问题。文章回顾了防治蝇害的三代杀虫剂的发展过程和存在的问题 ;展望了作为新一代环境友好防治蝇害药物的昆虫生长调节剂的开发前景。     

Variation in the level of grain defect light flecks and spots on cattle hides.

The occurrence of hide damage light flecks and spots was determined on tanned hides from 28 herds during a period of 8 to 12 months. Light flecks and spots are described as small areas of grain loss up to 3 mm in diameter that are seen on dyed crust cattle leather. Damage was found on 75.8% of all hides. The neck and shoulders were the anatomical region with the highest prevalence of damage. Sixty-eight per cent of all hides had light flecks and spots in this region. The forelimbs and dewlap were the anatomical region with the second highest occurrence with a prevalence of 39.1%. This distribution corresponded to the known distribution of lice in cattle. No significant differences were observed in age, sex, prevalence of lice in the herd assessed in March or infestations with different lice species. The frequency of light flecks and spots varied significantly during the year. The frequency was highest in the late winter and early spring, decreased significantly during the summer and was lowest in the autumn. This variation supported the importance of lice in the development of light flecks and spots and suggested a relatively long healing period for the damages induced by lice.     

热应激对动物生殖机能的影响及其作用机理

温度对动物生殖机能具有重要的影响,本文分别阐述热应激对雌性动物发情、受胎率、胚胎成活率、产仔数以及对雄性动物繁殖性能的影响,并提出了热应激对动物生殖机能影响的可能作用机理。     

漆酚热预聚漆研究（Ⅰ）──漆酚热预聚漆酶催化成膜

为了充分让漆酶在最后催化成膜中发挥作用，将生漆分离出漆酚和粗漆酶后，先将漆酚进行热预聚，再用粗漆酶配制成漆酚热预聚漆。试验结果表明：此法配制出的漆液，不仅能在漆酶催化下成膜，而且具有粗漆酶用量少、干燥性能好的特点。     

The effect of eradication of lice on the occurrence of the grain defect light flecks and spots on cattle hides.

The influence of an eradication programme for lice on the prevalence of light flecks and spots on cattle hides was studied in 33 dairy cattle herds during a period of two and a half years. Lice were eradicated from the main group of herds after 9 to 12 months and the quality of the hides before and after treatment was compared. Hides from slaughtered animals were collected during the study period, tanned and examined with special emphasis on the occurrence of the grain damage light flecks and spots. The prevalence of hides without light flecks and spots increased from 24.2% before treatment to 61.6% after treatment. The prevalence of hides free from the damage increased significantly in all examined anatomical regions. The improvement in hide quality was most marked in the shoulders and neck region which corresponded to the major predilection site of cattle lice. The prevalence of hides with light flecks and spots started to decrease in the first period (2-40 days) after eradication. The changes after treatment suggested that most healing process took place over a period of about 4 months. The eradication programme eliminated the seasonal variation in the prevalence of light flecks and spots which was present before treatment.