Pragmatic population viability targets in a rapidly changing world

To ensure both long-term persistence and evolutionary potential, the required number of individuals in a population often greatly exceeds the targets proposed by conservation management. We critically review minimum population size requirements for species based on empirical and theoretical estimates made over the past few decades. This literature collectively shows that thousands (not hundreds) of individuals are required for a population to have an acceptable probability of riding-out environmental fluctuation and catastrophic events, and ensuring the continuation of evolutionary processes. The evidence is clear, yet conservation policy does not appear to reflect these findings, with pragmatic concerns on feasibility over-riding biological risk assessment. As such, we argue that conservation biology faces a dilemma akin to those working on the physical basis of climate change, where scientific recommendations on carbon emission reductions are compromised by policy makers. There is no obvious resolution other than a more explicit acceptance of the trade-offs implied when population viability requirements are ignored. We recommend that conservation planners include demographic and genetic thresholds in their assessments, and recognise implicit triage where these are not met.     

Density and distribution of the endemic Seram cockatoo Cacatua moluccensis in relation to land use patterns

The endemic Seram cockatoo, Cacatua moluccensis, was placed on Appendix I of CITES in response to declining trade statistics but in the absence of population data. We conducted population surveys and collected data on habitat structure at seven sites on Seram in 1998. Cockatoo densities ranged from 0.93 to 17.25 birds/km² and averaged 7.9 birds/km² across sites. We classified habitat into three types but found that cockatoo densities did not correspond closely to habitat differences across sites. Cockatoo abundance was significantly associated with presence of potential nest trees and strangling figs. Analysis of forest cover and landuse indicates that while most of the island is still covered in lowland forest, only 14% of these forests are protected and almost half the island is classified as logging concession. Conservation recommendations include better information and enforcement of laws protecting Seram cockatoos and resolution of boundary conflicts between parks and logging concessions.     

Numerical Methods in Marine Ecology

In order to elucidate the taxonomic status of the melanistic, girdled lizard, Cordylus cordylus niger, occurring in the Cape Peninsula and the Saldanha Bay area, South Africa, character variation among populations of the C. cordylus complex in the section of the Cape Province south of 32°3C latitude and west of 19°30' longitude was analysed. Variation for 92 external morphological characters at 54 localities was determined. Distinct patterns of interlocality variation were observed in only eight characters, but interestingly, these patterns were concordant in all eight cases. The observed patterns are interpreted as indicating that three phenotypic forms of the nominate species occur in the south-western Cape, namely a coastal melanistic form (= C. c. niger), occurring in insular and peninsular situations along the coast; a montane melanistic form occurring at relatively high altitudes along the western section of the Cape Fold Mountains; and the typical form (= C. c. cordylus), occurring commonly along the coastal lowlands, but also further inland at some places.     

Integrating remote sensing, census and weather data for an assessment of rice yield, water consumption and water productivity in the Indo-Gangetic river basin

Crop consumptive water use and productivity are key elements to understand basin water management performance. This article presents a simplified approach to map rice (Oryza sativa L.) water consumption, yield, and water productivity (WP) in the Indo-Gangetic Basin (IGB) by combining remotely sensed imagery, national census and meteorological data. The statistical rice cropped area and production data were synthesized to calculate district-level land productivity, which is then further extrapolated to pixel-level values using MODIS NDVI product based on a crop dominance map. The water consumption by actual evapotranspiration is estimated with Simplified Surface Energy Balance (SSEB) model taking meteorological data and MODIS land surface temperature products as inputs. WP maps are then generated by dividing the rice productivity map with the seasonal actual evapotranspiration (ET) map. The average rice yields for Pakistan, India, Nepal and Bangladesh in the basin are 2.60, 2.53, 3.54 and 2.75 tons/ha, respectively. The average rice ET is 416 mm, accounting for only 68.2% of potential ET. The average WP of rice is 0.74 kg/m³. The WP generally varies with the trends of yield variation. A comparative analysis of ET, yield, rainfall and WP maps indicates greater scope for improvement of the downstream areas of the Ganges basin. The method proposed is simple, with satisfactory accuracy, and can be easily applied elsewhere.     

金融危机背景下农业剩余劳动力转移的根本途径

"就业是民生之本"。我国农业剩余劳动力转移就业问题是事关新农村建设和全面小康社会的一个大问题。由于受美国金融危机的影响,城镇大量工人下岗,已经转移的农业剩余劳动力(农民工)也纷纷失业,但是我国还有上亿农业剩余劳动力需要转移就业。在这种情况下,农业剩余劳动力在农村内部转移已经成为其转移就业的根本途径。通过提高农业剩余劳动力的素质、实施"创业工程"、"户籍与土地的联动机制"等配套工作可以为农业剩余劳动力在农村内部转移提供良好的条件。     

历史文化村镇普查及筛选方式研究——以河北省井陉县为例

利用3s与数据信息编码普查技术对河北省井陉县历史文化村镇进行全面普查,提出定量筛选技术,并结合山区特点,对建设部《中国历史文化名镇（村）评价指标体系》进行补充、修正和完善,增加若干影响因子,形成规范化的操作规程,对普及和使用起到借鉴作用,以适应量大面广的名镇名村保护工作的需要。     

云南省猪肉价格波动及其影响因素分析

选取2000--2013年云南省去皮带骨猪肉价格、育肥猪饲料价格以及鸡蛋价格月度数据为研究对象。首先,运用CensusX12季节调整法和HP滤波法对猪肉价格进行处理,得出云南省猪肉价格变动特点和规律。结果表明：从长期趋势来看,近14年来云南省猪肉价格呈上涨趋势并且期间经过了3次比较大的波动;从年度波动趋势来看,呈现出一定的周期性规律即第1季度猪肉价格基本处于下降趋势,在第2季度降到最低点后开始缓慢回升,最高价格通常会在第3季度末第4季度前期出现。然后运用平稳性检验、最小二乘回归和Granger因果检验探讨了影响云南省猪肉价格波动的因素,在因素讨论中发现育肥猪饲料价格以及替代品鸡蛋价格的波动对猪肉价格波动有比较大的影响,最后根据结论提出相应的对策建议。     

Regional relationships between surface temperature,vegetation, and human settlement in a rapidly urbanizing ecosystem

Regional climate change induced by rapid urbanization is responsible for and may result from changes in coupled human-ecological systems. Specifically, the distribution of urban vegetation may be an important intermediary between patterns of human settlement and regional climate spatial variability. To test this hypothesis we identified the relationships between surface temperature, one component of regional climate, vegetation, and human settlement patterns in the Phoenix, AZ, USA region. Combining satellite-derived surface temperature and vegetation data from an early summer day with US Census and topographic data, we found substantial surface temperature differences within the city that correlate primarily with an index of vegetation cover. Furthermore, both of these patterns vary systematically with the social characteristics of neighborhoods through the region. Overall, every $10,000 increase in neighborhood annual median household income was associated with a 0.28°C decrease in surface temperature on an early summer day in Phoenix. Temperature variation within a neighborhood was negatively related to population density. A multivariate model generated using path analysis supports our hypothesis that social impacts on surface temperature occur primarily through modifications of vegetation cover. Higher income neighborhoods were associated with increased vegetation cover and higher density neighborhoods were associated with decreased vegetation variability. These results suggest that settlement patterns in the central Arizona region influence regional climate through multiple pathways that are heterogeneously distributed throughout the city.     

The size and status of the population of southern sea lions Otaria flavescens in the Falkland Islands

Pup production of southern sea lions in the Falkland Islands was estimated to be 80,550 (total population ca. 380,000) in 1937, but by 1965 it had fallen to around 6000; a 93% reduction in under 30 years. We describe the results of an aerial survey of part of the breeding population in 1990 and comprehensive ground counts of the entire population in 1995 and 2003. Results indicate that the decline continued. In 1995, 63 breeding and 42 non-breeding groups were found. Pup production was estimated at 2034 pups; less than 2.7% of the 1930s estimate. All known and potential sites were revisited in 2003. 2747 pups were counted at 68 breeding sites, seven of which were new since 1995. Results indicate that between 1965 and 1990 the population reached a minimum of less than 1.5% of the 1937 population. Since then, pup production has increased at a rate of 8.5% p.a. between 1990 and 1995 and at 3.8% p.a. between 1995 and 2003.The Falklands' trajectory is similar to that of the adjacent Argentinian population. The causes of these declines are not clear. Around 44,000 sea lions were killed in the Falklands between 1935 and 1962, more than 500,000 were taken in Argentina in the same period. We present the results of a simple population model which suggests that, if sea lions migrated between the two areas, the combined hunt may explain the initial decline in the Falklands population. However, the continued decline after 1965 is as yet unexplained.     

A survey of the orangutan (Pongo pygmaeus wurmbii) population in and around Gunung Palung National Park, West Kalimantan, Indonesia based on nest counts

We conducted the first orangutan population census of Gunung Palung National Park, West Kalimantan, Indonesia, between April and September 2001. We used a refined line-transect nest-count methodology utilizing transect recounts to survey 69 km at 14 sites within the park and 14.2 km in the buffer zone. We present the first Bornean orangutan density estimate using complete site-specific parameters and long term monitoring of nest decay rates. Average orangutan density was 3.0 individuals/km², with densities ranging from 2.4 ind/km² in montane forest to 4.1 ind/km² in primary peat swamp. In addition, we tested alternative approaches to calculation of the nest-duration parameter. The second count of each transect resulted in 30% higher density estimates overall. We conclude that recounts should be incorporated into standard line-transect methodology. We estimate there to be ≈2500 individual orangutans in Gunung Palung, indicating the importance of this site in plans to conserve a network of viable orangutan populations. While logging may reduce densities, disturbed forest both inside and adjacent to the park has high conservation value as orangutan habitat. Further research into long-term orangutan population persistence in disturbed forest is needed.