控制工程造价不是盲目压价

本文对工程造价管理角度进行了论述,从不同的角度分析了控制工程造价的方法,阐明如 何科学地控制工程造价。     

Predicting the spatial distribution of ground flora on large domains using a hierarchical Bayesian model

Accomodation of important sources of uncertainty in ecological models is essential to realistically predicting ecological processes. The purpose of this project is to develop a robust methodology for modeling natural processes on a landscape while accounting for the variability in a process by utilizing environmental and spatial random effects. A hierarchical Bayesian framework has allowed the simultaneous integration of these effects. This framework naturally assumes variables to be random and the posterior distribution of the model provides probabilistic information about the process. Two species in the genus Desmodium were used as examples to illustrate the utility of the model in Southeast Missouri, USA. In addition, two validation techniques were applied to evaluate the qualitative and quantitative characteristics of the predictions.This revised version was published online in May 2005 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

变量筛选方法对郁闭度遥感估测模型的影响比较

比较基于偏最小二乘回归的Bootstrap方法与传统的平均残差平方和(RMSq)准则所选变量建立模型的精度差别.结果表明:Bootstrap方法是一种更优秀的变量筛选方法,比RMSq方法精度提高约5%;而且它不受变量多带来的运算困难的限制,更便于实际应用.     

德州市6种阔叶绿化树木叶面积回归测算方法的探讨

研究对象为德州市绿化带内的垂柳、榆树、国槐、刺槐、紫荆、大叶黄杨6种绿化树种。每种选取60片大小不一、发育正常的展开的叶片,以叶长、叶宽、长×宽、面积作为指标,求出叶面积和长×宽的回归方程,各回归方程均呈极显著正相关系,为绿化树木叶面积的测定提供一个简单、可靠的方法。     

31个杂交杨无性系对青杨叶锈病的抗性评价

在大田条件下对从北美新引种的31个杂交杨无性系对青杨叶锈病的抗性进行调查和评价的结果表明:所引进无性系对杨树叶锈病的抗性表现出很大的差异,从高度抗病到高度感病均有,但没有免疫的无性系。HE-2,XMH-10,XMH-9,HE-1,XMH-1,XMH-11,XMH-12,XMH-2,MH-8,XMH-7这10个无性系表现出高度抗病性,MH-9,DMH-3,MH-10,MH-4,MH-1,MH-6,MH-7,MH-2这8个无性系表现为高度感病。DN、NE杂交的大多数无性系有较高的抗病性,而TD、TN杂交的绝大多数无性系为感病或高度感病。同一杂交组合的不同无性系间,其抗性存在很大差异,有高抗,也有高感。     

试论组合预测的精度估计分析

在分析比较组合预测与单个预测的精度(误差)大小基础上,给出了组合预测精度高于单个预测精度的条件,并给出了组合预测的精度估计公式。     

基于美景度评价法和语义分析法的丽江古城桥梁景观美学评价

以丽江古城桥梁景观为研究对象,选取30个桥梁景观单元进行景观美学评价。通过景观评价得出直观视觉与感性形态的综合影响因素,提出相应优化建议,提升丽江古城桥梁景观的美学质量,为丽江古城桥梁旅游路线开发与建设提供科学参考与借鉴。综合运用美景度评价法与语义分析法,构建桥梁景观评价体系,得出影响桥梁景观公众审美偏好的主要因素为植被覆盖率、视野开阔度、环境共生性、桥梁个性度、生态因子、认知因子;根据各桥梁景观单元综合评价得分高低,分析评价者对各景观单元喜好度,提升整体景观美学质量。     

Model uncertainty in the ecosystem approach to fisheries

Fisheries scientists habitually consider uncertainty in parameter values, but often neglect uncertainty about model structure, an issue of increasing importance as ecosystem models are devised to support the move to an ecosystem approach to fisheries (EAF). This paper sets out pragmatic approaches with which to account for uncertainties in model structure and we review current ways of dealing with this issue in fisheries and other disciplines. All involve considering a set of alternative models representing different structural assumptions, but differ in how those models are used. The models can be asked to identify bounds on possible outcomes, find management actions that will perform adequately irrespective of the true model, find management actions that best achieve one or more objectives given weights assigned to each model, or formalize hypotheses for evaluation through experimentation. Data availability is likely to limit the use of approaches that involve weighting alternative models in an ecosystem setting, and the cost of experimentation is likely to limit its use. Practical implementation of an EAF should therefore be based on management approaches that acknowledge the uncertainty inherent in model predictions and are robust to it. Model results must be presented in ways that represent the risks and trade‐offs associated with alternative actions and the degree of uncertainty in predictions. This presentation should not disguise the fact that, in many cases, estimates of model uncertainty may be based on subjective criteria. The problem of model uncertainty is far from unique to fisheries, and a dialogue among fisheries modellers and modellers from other scientific communities will therefore be helpful.     

应用SPSS软件拟合Logistic曲线研究

介绍了SPSS软件中两种拟合Logistic曲线的方法和步骤,通过实例分析表明,用非线性回归(Nonlinear Regression)比曲线回归(Curve Estimation Regression)拟合Logistic曲线更简单实用。     

产流积水法测量坡地降雨入渗动态过程及其精度估计

坡地土壤的降雨入渗性能对于水文过程、土壤侵蚀、水资源相关方面的研究和实践非常重要。产流积水法采用由实验得到的数据,分析了不同坡位土壤入渗率及累积入渗量随降雨时间的变化过程。结果表明不同坡位入渗过程曲线反映了坡面径流到达前后,实际入渗率从降雨强度控制阶段跃升到入渗性能控制阶段,并最终趋于稳定入渗率的全过程。入渗区不同坡位的累积入渗量从坡顶至坡底逐渐减少,而且径流在坡面上推进速度越快不同坡位上的累积入渗量差值越小。通过理论分析,确定了观测径流推进距离误差所引起的测量结果的误差。用水量平衡原理对产流积水法实验结果进行精度估计,并提出了由实测入渗率求入渗水量的解析方法,并将此与实际降雨量进行比较,间接地估计了测量结果的精度。结果表明,产流积水法测量坡地降雨/径流入渗性能具有很高的精度。