Adopters,testers or pseudo-adopters? Dynamics of the use of improved tree fallows by farmers in western Kenya

Although there has been increasing research on the adoption of agroforestry technologies over the last decade, few such studies have assessed uptake over a long period and many are based on a single snapshot in time. Furthermore, most of these studies have mainly looked at non-adopters and adopters: only recently have social scientists considered testers. A further category of users neglected in adoption studies has been re-adopters of technologies. Studying this group provides an interesting and more nuanced understanding of adoption and re-adoption. Methodologically, most adoption studies use quantitative methods and fail to link their findings to wider socio-economic, political and institutional settings. This paper presents a study of the dynamics of improved tree fallow use by farmers in Siaya and Vihiga districts of western Kenya over a period of eight years. It uses both qualitative and quantitative data to critically discuss the motivations of adopters, testers/rejecters and re-adopters. The results show that the process of adoption is highly dynamic and variable with farmers planting improved fallows and discontinuing or re-adopting them due to a whole range of factors, of which soil fertility improvement is just one. These factors included incentives from projects, the tying of adoption to credit programmes, prestige, participation in seminars/tours and the availability of a seed market from projects promoting improved fallows. Farmers planting improved fallows for such reasons may be termed ‘pseudo-adopters’. There were significant differences in adoption between the two districts, with more farmers in Siaya planting improved fallows than in Vihiga. A majority of farmers in Vihiga (53%) who were given seed never planted improved fallows, even though they had been exposed to the technology. Some 40% of farmers in Siaya and 38% in Vihiga planted improved fallows but later rejected them. This has some important implications for research and development. For improved fallow technologies to be attractive to farmers, they must provide other tangible economic benefits besides soil fertility improvement. This presents a challenge to researchers who must better attune themselves to the needs and demands of farmers if they wish to see their research findings widely adopted.     

基于驾驶意图的无级变速器目标速比确定方

运用模糊数学理论提出一种基于驾驶意图的金属带式无级变速器(CVT)目标速比的确定方法,不需采用传统的经过手动方式选择动力模式或经济模式的方式,即可确定一个在动力和经济模式之间的目标速比.根据基于模糊规则的驾驶意图指数确定的目标速比进行CVT的速比控制,以达到按照驾驶意图来兼顾汽车的动力性和经济性能,从而避免了传统模式选择过程中速比突变导致传动系统的冲击、振动和发动机颤动,且能够根据驾驶员的驾驶意图进行调整,提高了驾驶操纵性.最后根据目标速比控制策略设计了控制器,并通过试验验证了目标速比确定方法的适用性.     

Understanding farmers’ potato production practices and use of improved varieties in Chencha,Ethiopia

This study was carried out to better understand non-adoption of improved varieties of potato (Solanum tuberosum) and associated technologies by smallholder farmers in Chencha, Ethiopia. Data were collected through a survey (n = 47) and in-depth interviews (n = 20). It shows how wealth status was a factor of major importance. Most wealthy and some medium-wealthy farmers adopted improved potato varieties and many of the improved production practices; they had access to seed, associated knowledge and support, and sufficient resources that were necessary to apply the improved practices. Non-adoption was common among many medium-wealthy and most poor farmers: they lacked—next to access to the technologies and knowledge—cash, land, and labor. Results indicated the need to rethink research and intervention efforts. Next to paying attention to differences in the access to technology and the related knowledge, there is a need to consider the variation in technology needs, supporting microcredit services, and room to experiment. As a result, different combinations of improved production practices may be adopted.     

食品召回策略对信任和购买意愿的影响

为促进落实我国食品召回制度,有效应对食品安全危机后消费者信任和购买意愿降低的问题,保障企业可持续发展,采用情境模拟实验的方法,基于全国1 053份消费者调查问卷,研究食品召回策略对消费者信任和购买意愿的影响,探究信任违背类型和消费者信任倾向在食品召回策略影响信任之间的作用,并验证信任在食品召回策略与购买意愿之间的中介作用。结果表明：1）食品召回策略对信任和购买意愿具有显著差异影响,主动召回最优,责令召回次之,不召回最差;并且,主动和责令召回对信任修复具有积极作用,而不召回对信任修复没有积极作用;2）信任违背类型在食品召回策略影响信任之间起调节作用。企业违背诚信时,责令和主动召回后的能力信任没有显著差异;企业违背能力时,责令和不召回后的正直信任没有显著差异;3）信任倾向在食品召回策略和信任之间起调节作用。对于高信任倾向的消费者,责令召回后的能力、善意和正直信任显著高于不召回;对于低信任倾向的消费者,责令召回后的善意和正直的信任与不召回后的无显著差异;4）信任在食品召回策略和购买意愿之间起完全中介作用。因此,一旦发生食品安全危机,企业应积极主动实施召回,如果企业消极拖延,有关部门应严格监管...     

家庭经济禀赋、政策认知与农户宅基地流转意愿——基于江西省456份问卷调查

构建科学有效的宅基地流转机制是一个迫切需要解决的基础性课题。笔者利用江西省456户农户的实际调查数据,运用Logit回归模型研究家庭经济禀赋、政策认知对农户宅基地流转意愿的影响。研究结果表明：家庭经济禀赋中非农收入比重、家庭存款、家庭人均年收入对农户宅基地流转意愿具有显著正向影响;政策认知中“一户一宅”认知、流转规定认知程度对农户宅基地流转意愿具有显著负向影响。为此,应进一步提高农户非农就业机会,改善农民务工经商的就业环境、应加快制定“一户一宅”的配套制度,构建更加合理和更具有操作性的宅基地流转政策体系。     

Adoption and Impact of Modern Rice Varieties on Poverty in Eastern India

The factors affecting the adoption of modern varieties(MVs) of rice and impact on poverty in Odisha, India were discussed. A total of 363 households from Cuttack and Sambalpur districts of Odisha via multistage sampling technique participated in the survey. The Cragg's Double hurdle model was used to model the determinants of adoption and intensity of adoption of MVs of rice, and the propensity score matching was used to analyze the impact of adoption on poverty. The results showed that age, education, risk aversion, land size, yield, perception of MVs as high yielding, resistant to diseases and availability of MVs positively influenced the decision to adopt. However, variables such as household size, experience of a farmer, off-farm job participation, amount of credit received, cost of seeds, insecticides and fertilizers negatively influenced the adoption of MVs. Intensity of adoption of MVs was negatively influenced by experience of a farmer, cost of fertilizer and marketability of MVs, and positively affected by household size, risk aversion, land size, cost of insecticides, perception of MVs as high yielding and availability of MV seeds. Poverty incidence, gap and severity were high among non-adopters to adopters of MVs. After matching adopters and non-adopters of MV groups using four different algorithms of nearest neighbour matching, stratification matching, radius matching and kernel matching, the impact of MV adoption resulted in higher per capita monthly household expenditure by about US$ 52.82 to US$ 63.17.     

消费者对本地品牌鲜食玉米的购买意愿及其影响因素分析——基于上海929份消费者调查问卷

在农业供给侧结构性改革的时代背景下,通过对上海本地品牌鲜食玉米的购买意愿及其影响因素的实证分析,为更好地推进上海鲜食玉米的品牌建设及为引导本地品牌鲜食玉米的消费提供相应的建议。通过建立多元有序Logit模型定量分析不同消费群体的个体特征、家庭特征、消费群体对鲜食玉米的认知特征及消费者的饮食偏好对上海品牌鲜食玉米产品购买意愿的影响程度和作用方向。结果表明,消费者的性别、年龄、出生地、学历、是否愿意把鲜食玉米当作零食、是否知道上海种植鲜食玉米、对鲜食玉米产品质量安全的信任度及是否在意鲜食玉米的产地,是消费者对本地品牌鲜食玉米购买意愿的显著影响因素。综合来看,当前市场与消费者之间的信息不对称,仍是制约本地品牌发展和高质量农产品消费的重要因素。据此,从消费群体的精准定位、降低市场与消费者间的信息不对称、增加鲜食玉米产品的多样性这几个方面提出针对性的建议。     

知识扩散何以影响稻作系统转型实践?——基于结构方程模型的链式中介效应

促进水稻—冬闲农作系统向绿肥稻作系统转型是强化区域耕地质量保护与提升、保障国家粮食安全的有效措施。基于南方稻作区安徽、湖南、广西三省区934份农户调查数据,采用PLS-SEM模型和Bootstrap检验方法,分析知识扩散对农户绿肥稻作系统采纳意愿的影响效果与作用路径,并进一步运用Ordered logit模型揭示异质性农户禀赋对其参与农业知识扩散活动的影响。结果表明：知识扩散对农户绿肥稻作系统采纳意愿具有显著正向的直接影响;外部风险感知与组织信任、生态服务价值感知与组织信任分别在知识扩散对农户绿肥稻作系统采纳意愿的影响中存在链式中介作用;知识扩散通过农户障碍感知对农户绿肥稻作系统采纳意愿产生显著的间接作用;参加合作社、务农经验、教育程度、家庭收入、身体健康状况均对农户参加知识扩散活动具有显著的正向影响。据此,本研究提出开展系统性宣讲培训活动、提高农户组织信任、改善农户禀赋条件等政策建议。     

民族地区农户兼业意愿及影响因素分析

【目的】深入考察民族地区农户兼业意愿及影响因素,为民族地区农户兼业政策的制定提供理论依据。【方法】对重庆市石柱县进行实地调查,以问卷、访谈等方式收集数据,并利用Logistic模型分析农户兼业影响因素。【结果】民族地区农户兼业意愿强烈,农户的性别、年龄、文化程度、家庭规模、是否拥有专业技能、小孩能否在父母打工地入学、土地是否容易转租、兼业信息渠道和致富意愿等因素均显著影响农户兼业意愿。【建议】地方政府应加强职业教育培训、完善土地流转制度、统筹城乡发展、建立农户兼业信息网络体系等,以推动民族地区农户兼业发展。     

可追溯农产品的消费者购买意愿调查--以乌鲁木齐市为例

2013年在乌鲁木齐市对消费者进行了包括消费者的基本特征及其对可追溯农产品的认知程度和购买意愿的实证调查,并且运用二元Logistic模型分析了影响消费者购买意愿的主要因素。结果表明：婚姻状况、民族、文化程度、职业、价格等因素对消费者购买可追溯农产品的购买意愿有显著影响。