Some Comments on Gerechte Designs

In a companion paper we derived the correct analysis for gerechte designs with uncorrected errors. Here we show that this correct analysis cannot be justified by the usual randomization argument. However, when the regions are rectangular there is a randomization procedure which validates an analysis with three separate error terms. We also outline other developments in design and analysis that may be more satisfactory.     

Evaluation of sampling methods and assessment of the sample size to estimate the weed seedbank in soil, taking into account spatial variability

As field sampling is time consuming, it is necessary to develop efficient sampling techniques to obtain accurate estimates of the weed seedbank in soil. The relative efficiency between sampling schemes depends on the spatial variability in weed seed density across agricultural fields. Spatial variability of the weed seed density was characterized by theoretical correlograms. A systematic sampling (square grill) scheme was considered and it was found that, taking into account spatial variability, this sampling scheme was more efficient than simple random sampling. As a result, the sample size can be reduced in comparison with that given in previous studies, where spatial correlation was ignored. The reduction depends on the correlation structure defined as a function of the ratio, τ, between the nugget effect and the sill of the variogram. The maximum reduction of the sample size, without loss of either precision or confidence level corresponds to the case where there is no nugget effect, τ = 0. The opposite extreme case, where the reduction is nil, corresponds to the case of a pure nugget effect τ = 1. The abaci based on given expressions are provided to determine the sample size in species whose spatial pattern can be fitted either to a Poisson or to a negative binomial distribution.     

江苏省4类主要秸秆和畜禽粪便空间分布及综合利用潜力研究

为明晰江苏省农业废弃物资源分布格局并进行利用潜力评估,推进农业废弃物资源化利用,助力农业全面绿色转型,本研究借助GIS构建数据批处理模型,测算各区县水稻、小麦、玉米和油菜4种作物的秸秆和猪、牛、羊、家禽4种畜禽的粪便产生量,及其在肥料化、能源化方面的利用潜力理论值,并结合热点分析结果为江苏省农业废弃物综合利用提供政策建议。结果表明：2020年江苏省4种主要作物秸秆可收集总量高达3 972.00万t,以水稻和小麦秸秆为主,集中分布在江苏北部和中部。分析其肥料化利用潜力,理论上相当于1 511.89万t有机碳、12.04万t N、1.59万t P、24.49万t K,能源化理论上相当于1 617.52万t标准煤或6.5×10⁹m³沼气;江苏省4种主要畜禽粪便产生总量为4 560.77万t,家禽粪便与猪粪最多,主要分布在东部边界和西北部地区。分析其肥料化利用潜力,理论计算相当于737.00万t有机碳、31.15万t N、29.86万t P和26.89万t K,能源化利用可折算成1 036.95万t标准煤或4.9×10⁹m     

可控变杆长空间机构在农机部件工作轨迹上的设计与应用

根据实际需要给定的空间轨迹,设计某种空间连杆机构,使得该空间机构连杆上定点的运动轨迹逼近所给定的空间轨迹。该文采用了可控变杆长空间连杆机构来实现已知运动轨迹,该运动轨迹可应用到机械手拔秧插秧、果实采摘、枝苗嫁接等农业机械设计中,为实现空间复杂运动轨迹设计提供了理论研究基础,该方法可应用于机器人、机械手的轨迹规划。     

通辽市暴雨特征分析及区域性暴雨定量评估方法

基于通辽市 1960—2020 年的日降水量资料,分析暴雨站次及区域性暴雨过程时空变化特征,并利用国家标准 GB-T 42075-2022 对区域性暴雨过程进行定量评估。结果表明:(1)暴雨极值呈明显的南部地区大于北部,暴雨站次分布整体上北部和中西部少,南部和中东部多。年平均暴雨日数 0.8 d。7～8月为发生暴雨主要月份。(2)区域性暴雨过程共45次,年平均 0.7 d,年际变化呈减少趋势。单日区域性暴雨占78%。主要出现在7月下旬达11次。(3)利用国家标准定量评估,得出有 3 次特强区域性暴雨过程,依次为 2017 年 8月3日、1994年7月12～14日、1984年8月10～11日。结合本地情况,定义综合强度Z值在100以上为特强区域性暴雨,Z值在40以上为强区域性暴雨,Z值在30以上为较强区域性暴雨。区域性暴雨等级评估方法适用性较好,利于区域性暴雨过程强度的划分。     

美洲斑潜蝇空间分布型研究

通过采用聚集度指标的方法,对美洲斑潜蝇在茄子、豆角田空间分布起先了系统研究,测定结果呈聚集分布,为田间调查及防治提供了依据。     

Analysis of the seed dispersal patterns of wild soybean as a reference for vegetation management around genetically modified soybean fields

There are concerns that genetically modified soybean might threaten the genetic diversity of the wild soybean populations that are distributed in East Asia because genetically modified soybean has no crossing barrier with wild soybean. A simple and effective method to prevent hybridization via pollen flow is spatial separation between the two species because their hybridization occurs only when they grow in close proximity. Therefore, the invasiveness of wild soybean needs to be known in order to secure the appropriate distances. As wild soybean seeds are dispersed mechanically by pod dehiscence, an experiment was conducted in which white sheets were placed on the ground, concentric circles were drawn around the parent plants, and the number of dispersed seeds within each 0.5 m‐wide zone were counted. About 40% of the produced seeds were dispersed and the number of dispersed seeds gradually declined as the distance from the parent plants increased. The model that explained the relationship between the number and distance of the dispersed seeds was produced by using a generalized linear model procedure. More than 95, 99, and 99.9% of the produced seeds stayed within 3.5, 5.0, and 6.5 m after natural pod dehiscence. Knowing these values is useful for evaluating the level of invasive risk by mechanical seed dispersal. The goal of the work is to efficiently and deliberately prevent hybridization by isolating genetically modified soybean fields and wild soybean populations by vegetation management, including weeding and setting up specific‐width buffer zones.     

基于生态承载力的黄土高原地区城镇体系空间结构演化——以庆阳市为例

庆阳市位于黄土高原中部丘陵沟壑区,气候干旱,生态脆弱。运用生态承载力、城镇体系相关理论和方法,分析研究区城镇体系空间结构演化特点及趋势。采用生态弹性度、资源承载力和承载压力度、对生态承载力的演化进行综合评价,并对生态承载力与城镇空间结构的关系进行探讨。在此基础上,对研究区城镇体系空间结构进行调整优化,为脆弱生态条件下的城镇发展提供依据。     

西藏日喀则地区马铃薯气候适宜度模型分析及其时空变化特征研究

基于日喀则地区7个国家气象站1980—2021年逐日气象数据,分析构建了高原马铃薯气温(T)、光照(S)、水分(W)、气候(C)适宜度评价模型并对其时空变化特征进行分析,结果发现：近42年日喀则地区S平均值为0.82,呈逐年弱下降趋势,T、W、C适宜度平均值分别为0.79、0.64、0.61,均呈逐年上升趋势;马铃薯全生育期的光热资源都在最合理区域(S、T≥0.7),满足了其长发育需求。W在播种～出苗期(W=0.62)、开花～成熟期(W=0.44)呈现较低水平,是制约日喀则地区马铃薯生长发育的最主要因素;T、S空间分布较均匀,且呈现自西向东、自南北向中递增趋势,W空间分布不均匀。桑珠孜区—南木林县一带地区为马铃薯综合气候适宜度高值区(C>0.6),适宜大力发展马铃薯产业。由本文建立的日尺度气候适宜度评价模型得出的年际变化和区域特征结果与实际情况比较一致,为了解气候变化下日喀则马铃薯生长发育适宜度的时空变化提供依据。     

马铃薯甲虫空间分布型及序贯抽样

马铃薯甲虫Leptinotarsa decemlineata Say是一种重要的害虫,为明确其在新疆的空间分布,及时采取有效的防控措施,在田间调查的基础上,采取随机取样和Iwao回归分析法对新疆乌鲁木齐地区的马铃薯甲虫成虫、卵块和幼虫的空间分布型、理论抽样数及幼虫的序贯抽样方法进行了研究。结果表明,马铃薯甲虫各虫态空间格局的聚块性指标均大于1,空间分布型为普通群聚型;对低龄幼虫进行序贯抽样,当防治阈值为50头/样方、置信水平为1.96时,防治上、下限方程分别为:d1=50n+81n和d0=50n-81n,当百株虫量达到756头以上时需要进行防治。