Impact of climate change on maize yield in China from 1979 to 2016

Climate change severely impacts agricultural production, which jeopardizes food security. China is the second largest maize producer in the world and also the largest consumer of maize. Analyzing the impact of climate change on maize yields can provide effective guidance to national and international economics and politics. Panel models are unable to determine the group-wise heteroscedasticity, cross-sectional correlation and autocorrelation of datasets, therefore we adopted the feasible generalized least square(FGLS) model to evaluate the impact of climate change on maize yields in China from 1979–2016 and got the following results:(1) During the 1979–2016 period, increases in temperature negatively impacted the maize yield of China. For every 1°C increase in temperature, the maize yield was reduced by 5.19 kg 667 m–2(1.7%). Precipitation increased only marginally during this time, and therefore its impact on the maize yield was negligible. For every 1 mm increase in precipitation, the maize yield increased by an insignificant amount of 0.043 kg 667 m–2(0.014%).(2) The impacts of climate change on maize yield differ spatially, with more significant impacts experienced in southern China. In this region, a 1°C increase in temperature resulted in a 7.49 kg 667 m–2 decrease in the maize yield, while the impact of temperature on the maize yield in northern China was insignificant. For every 1 mm increase in precipitation, the maize yield increased by 0.013 kg 667 m–2 in southern China and 0.066 kg 667 m–2 in northern China.(3) The resilience of the maize crop to climate change is strong. The marginal effect of temperature in both southern and northern China during the 1990–2016 period was smaller than that for the 1979–2016 period.     

土壤团聚体有机碳研究进展

土壤有机碳是衡量土壤肥力的重要指标,对于促进土壤养分循环、增加养分有效性有重要作用。土壤团聚体是土壤的重要组成部分,是组成土壤结构的最小单元,受到自然因素和人为因素的影响,其形成转化过程与土壤固碳过程息息相关,因而研究团聚体和有机碳的关系及团聚体有机碳影响因素对于土壤结构的改善和土壤质量的提升具有重要意义。本文通过对文献的总结,明晰了土壤团聚体和有机碳的关系,阐述了土壤类型、施肥方式、土地利用和矿区复垦对土壤团聚体有机碳的影响,并从生物质炭的长期定位研究和复垦矿区的土壤修复两方面对土壤团聚体有机碳的研究进行展望,研究结果可为合理的农业生产提供科学依据。     

小麦4B染色体上LOX基因的等位变异及其区域分布

为了解中国不同麦区小麦种质资源籽粒脂肪氧化酶（lipoxygenase,LOX）活性相关基因TaLox-B1的差异和分布,利用小麦4B染色体上的功能标记LOX16和LOX18对7个麦区的436份种质资源进行分子检测。结果表明：在供试材料中共检测到3种TaLox-B1基因等位变异类型,分别为TaLox-B1a（与高LOX活性相关)、TaLox-B1b（与低LOX活性相关）和杂合型,其频率分别为19.0％、70.4％和10.6％。小麦LOX活性基因不同变异类型在各生态区的分布存在明显差异：基因型TaLox-B1a在黄淮冬麦区、北部冬麦区和长江中下游冬麦区分布较多,其比例分别为21.1%、19.8%和17.6%;基因型TaLox-B1b在西南冬麦区和长江中下游冬麦区分布较多,比例分别为87.9%、72.5%;杂合型仅存在于北部冬麦区、黄淮冬麦区与长江中下游冬麦区,比例分别为14.2%、12.4%和9.8%。利用标记LOX16和LOX18对53个自选高代品系进行分子检测,发现自选品系仅有TaLox-B1b与杂合型两种基因型,其中基因型TaLox-B1ab有32个,比例为60.4%。采用分子标记辅助选择,有利于快速鉴定小麦籽粒LOX活性,加速LOX的遗传改良和新品种选育。     

何刚德《抚郡农产考略》农业经济思想初探

《抚郡农产考略》是清末江西有代表性的农学著作,不仅保存有抚州地区大量农产种类、栽培与加工技术等资料,还包含了大量的商品经济信息。作者何刚德已经认识到自给自足的自然经济会对生产有束缚作用,他在记载各类农产品时,提出“价值”的概念且用货币价格对其衡量,并深入揭示了农产品上市时间、供求、地理、交通条件等因素对价格的影响,进而寻求增值之道。何氏提倡多种经营,大力种植棉花、烟叶等经济作物,发挥柑橘、甘蔗等名优特产优势,促进农业的商品化生产。他还建议通过深加工的方式获取更高利润,并对未能引进西方的先进加工技术而感到惋惜。《抚郡农产考略》体现了中国近代官僚知识分子对农业经济转型的探索,具有重要的历史价值与现实意义。     

滴灌下生物质改良材料对盐渍土水盐氮运移的调控效应

为探究生物质改良材料对滴灌盐渍土水、盐、肥运移过程的调控效应，采用土箱模拟试验，研究了水肥一体化滴灌条件下，生物炭和腐殖酸两种改良材料对盐渍土水、盐、氮运移和再分布过程及其时空分布特征的影响规律。结果表明：在滴灌条件下，盐渍土壤水盐的时空动态变化表现出明显的水分入渗驱动的盐分运移过程和蒸发扩散驱动的水盐再分布过程；铵态氮含量在时间上表现出先增大、后减小的变化趋势，在空间上的运移再分布特征较弱；硝态氮含量初始时空分布表现出与水盐相似的运移特征，受铵态氮硝化作用的多重影响，后期空间分布与铵态氮空间分布相似；生物炭通过提高土壤饱和导水率，增大了入渗阶段土壤水、盐、氮的运移速率和分布范围；腐殖酸通过提高土壤田间持水率增大了再分布过程土壤水、盐、氮的分布范围和强度，同时其对尿素的水解和硝化过程表现出更强的抑制效果。应用生物质改良材料在改变土壤物理性状进而调控滴灌土壤水盐运移的同时，还影响土壤氮素转化运移过程及其分布，这为水肥一体化滴灌盐渍农田的节水、控盐、减肥治理提供了理论基础。     

岩溶流域典型农业区水体氢氧同位素的空间异质性及形成机制

分别于平水期和枯水期采集了花溪河流域典型农业区地表水和地下水样品。利用氢氧同位素示踪技术,结合土地利用类型对研究区不同水体的补给来源、季节变化及主要影响过程进行了分析,并对不同水体氢氧同位素值进行了空间插值分析,同时对其形成机制进行了分析,阐明了不同土地利用类型影响下的主要水文过程。结果表明:(1)研究区不同水体的主要补给来源为当地大气降水,月亮湖水库受蒸发作用影响明显,地表水和地下水的δD和δ~(18)O整体上呈现平水期高于枯水期的特征。(2)地下水的δD和δ~(18)O在枯水期与平水期均呈现明显的空间分异性特征,西部水田/水库集中区富集,东部旱地集中区贫化,土地利用对研究区环境水文过程影响明显。该研究结果有助于了解不同土地利用方式下地表水对地下水的影响,为流域管理提供科学依据。     

数值模型结构不确定性对模拟结果的影响分析

以内蒙古鄂托克旗为例,基于GMS中的MODFLOW模块构建了地下水流数值模拟模型,分析了模型结构(含水层厚度、参数分区)与模型参数不确定性因素对模拟结果的影响.研究结果表明:含水层不确定情景(含水层下边界概化为隔水底板平均值870 m)与实际情况水头差值绝对值的累计和最大为701 m,对模拟结果起了主控作用;当含水层下边界概化为910,940 m时,累计和分别增加为1 013,1 593 m;与仅考虑单个不确定性因素相比,同时考虑模型参数与含水层不确定情景累计和最大为738 m,同时考虑参数分区与含水层不确定情景累计和最大为791 m.因此,在构建地下水流数值模拟模型时,应优先考虑含水层空间结构概化的合理程度,同时考虑多个不确定性因素对模拟结果的综合影响,使地下水数值模拟模型能更精确地反映真实的地下水流状况.     

王正非林火蔓延模型改进研究

王正非林火蔓延模型是目前国内比较先进的森林火灾蔓延模型,但是由于林火行为的复杂性,此模型在准确率和普适性方面仍存在许多不足。本文结合已有的成果进一步改进王正非模型,增加了可燃物湿度对林火蔓延速度的影响,改进了林火初始速度的计算方式。针对各种坡度对林火蔓延行为的影响给出了一个计算公式。与改进前相比,改进后的模型使其对林火蔓延情况的预估更为精准。     

Comparing the behavioural thermoregulation response to heat stress by Atlantic salmon parr (Salmo salar) in two rivers

Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and magnitude of extreme thermal events in rivers. The Little Southwest Miramichi River (LSWM) and the Ouelle River (OR) are two Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) rivers located in eastern Canada, where in recent years, water temperatures have exceeded known thermal limits (~23°C). Once temperature surpasses this threshold, juvenile salmon exploit thermal heterogeneity to behaviourally thermoregulate, forming aggregations in coolwater refuges. This study aimed to determine whether the behavioural thermoregulation response is universal across rivers, arising from common thermal cues. We detailed the temperature and discharge patterns of two geographically distinct rivers from 2010 to 2012 and compared these with aggregation onset temperature. PIT telemetry and snorkelling were used to confirm the presence of aggregations. Mean daily maximum temperature in 2010 was significantly greater in the OR versus the LSWM (p = 0.005), but not in other years (p = 0.090–0.353). Aggregations occurred on 14 and 9 occasions in the OR and LSWM respectively. Temperature at onset of aggregation was significantly greater in the OR (T_onset = 28.3°C) than in the LSWM (T_onset = 27.3°C; p = 0.049). Logistic regression models varied by river and were able to predict the probability of aggregation based on the preceding number of hours >23°C (R² = 0.61 & 0.65; P₅₀ = 27.4°C & 28.9°C; in the OR and LSWM respectively). These results imply the preceding local thermal regime may influence behaviour and indicate a degree of phenotypic plasticity, illustrating a need for localised management strategies.