Impact of climate change on maize yield in China from 1979 to 2016

Climate change severely impacts agricultural production, which jeopardizes food security. China is the second largest maize producer in the world and also the largest consumer of maize. Analyzing the impact of climate change on maize yields can provide effective guidance to national and international economics and politics. Panel models are unable to determine the group-wise heteroscedasticity, cross-sectional correlation and autocorrelation of datasets, therefore we adopted the feasible generalized least square(FGLS) model to evaluate the impact of climate change on maize yields in China from 1979–2016 and got the following results:(1) During the 1979–2016 period, increases in temperature negatively impacted the maize yield of China. For every 1°C increase in temperature, the maize yield was reduced by 5.19 kg 667 m–2(1.7%). Precipitation increased only marginally during this time, and therefore its impact on the maize yield was negligible. For every 1 mm increase in precipitation, the maize yield increased by an insignificant amount of 0.043 kg 667 m–2(0.014%).(2) The impacts of climate change on maize yield differ spatially, with more significant impacts experienced in southern China. In this region, a 1°C increase in temperature resulted in a 7.49 kg 667 m–2 decrease in the maize yield, while the impact of temperature on the maize yield in northern China was insignificant. For every 1 mm increase in precipitation, the maize yield increased by 0.013 kg 667 m–2 in southern China and 0.066 kg 667 m–2 in northern China.(3) The resilience of the maize crop to climate change is strong. The marginal effect of temperature in both southern and northern China during the 1990–2016 period was smaller than that for the 1979–2016 period.     

土壤团聚体有机碳研究进展

土壤有机碳是衡量土壤肥力的重要指标,对于促进土壤养分循环、增加养分有效性有重要作用。土壤团聚体是土壤的重要组成部分,是组成土壤结构的最小单元,受到自然因素和人为因素的影响,其形成转化过程与土壤固碳过程息息相关,因而研究团聚体和有机碳的关系及团聚体有机碳影响因素对于土壤结构的改善和土壤质量的提升具有重要意义。本文通过对文献的总结,明晰了土壤团聚体和有机碳的关系,阐述了土壤类型、施肥方式、土地利用和矿区复垦对土壤团聚体有机碳的影响,并从生物质炭的长期定位研究和复垦矿区的土壤修复两方面对土壤团聚体有机碳的研究进行展望,研究结果可为合理的农业生产提供科学依据。     

岩溶流域典型农业区水体氢氧同位素的空间异质性及形成机制

分别于平水期和枯水期采集了花溪河流域典型农业区地表水和地下水样品。利用氢氧同位素示踪技术,结合土地利用类型对研究区不同水体的补给来源、季节变化及主要影响过程进行了分析,并对不同水体氢氧同位素值进行了空间插值分析,同时对其形成机制进行了分析,阐明了不同土地利用类型影响下的主要水文过程。结果表明:(1)研究区不同水体的主要补给来源为当地大气降水,月亮湖水库受蒸发作用影响明显,地表水和地下水的δD和δ~(18)O整体上呈现平水期高于枯水期的特征。(2)地下水的δD和δ~(18)O在枯水期与平水期均呈现明显的空间分异性特征,西部水田/水库集中区富集,东部旱地集中区贫化,土地利用对研究区环境水文过程影响明显。该研究结果有助于了解不同土地利用方式下地表水对地下水的影响,为流域管理提供科学依据。     

数值模型结构不确定性对模拟结果的影响分析

以内蒙古鄂托克旗为例,基于GMS中的MODFLOW模块构建了地下水流数值模拟模型,分析了模型结构(含水层厚度、参数分区)与模型参数不确定性因素对模拟结果的影响.研究结果表明:含水层不确定情景(含水层下边界概化为隔水底板平均值870 m)与实际情况水头差值绝对值的累计和最大为701 m,对模拟结果起了主控作用;当含水层下边界概化为910,940 m时,累计和分别增加为1 013,1 593 m;与仅考虑单个不确定性因素相比,同时考虑模型参数与含水层不确定情景累计和最大为738 m,同时考虑参数分区与含水层不确定情景累计和最大为791 m.因此,在构建地下水流数值模拟模型时,应优先考虑含水层空间结构概化的合理程度,同时考虑多个不确定性因素对模拟结果的综合影响,使地下水数值模拟模型能更精确地反映真实的地下水流状况.     

基于无人机航摄技术在土地整治项目中的应用研究

针对传统土地整治项目施工监管、后期监测效率不高的问题,本文通过低空无人机航摄和PhotoScan软件后期处理,对比生成的正射影像图和Google earth卫星图的分辨率和位置,发现该影像图能精准、高效的表征项目区影像数据变化,从而得到一种可用于土地整治项目各阶段动态观测的简单、快捷方法。     

Impact of grassland contract policy on soil organic carbon losses from alpine grassland on the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau

Carbon storage in the soils on the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau plays a very important role in the global carbon budget. In the 1990s, a policy of contracting collective grasslands to smaller units was implemented, resulting in a change from the traditional collective grassland management to two new management patterns: a multi‐household management pattern (MMP: grassland shared by several households without enclosures) and a single‐household management pattern (SMP: grassland enclosed and used by only one household). In 2016, 50 MMP and 54 SMP winter pastures on the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau were sampled to assess the differences in soil organic carbon (SOC) between the two management patterns. Results showed that average SOC was significantly greater under MMP than under SMP, with an estimated 0.41 Mg C/ha/yr lost due to SMP following the new grassland contract. Based on the government's grassland policy, four grassland utilization scenarios were developed for both summer and winter pastures. We found that if the grassland were managed under SMP, likely C losses ranged between 0.31 × 10⁷ and 6.15 × 10⁷ Mg C/yr across the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau relative to MMP, which more closely resembles pre‐1990s grassland management. Previous estimates of C losses have only considered land use change (with cover change) and ignored the impacts driven by land management pattern changes (without cover change). The new data suggest that C losses from the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau are greater than previously estimated, and therefore that the grassland contract policy should be reviewed and SMP households should be encouraged to reunite into the MMP. These findings have potential implications for land management strategies not only on the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau but also other grazing regions globally where such practices may exist.     

王正非林火蔓延模型改进研究

王正非林火蔓延模型是目前国内比较先进的森林火灾蔓延模型,但是由于林火行为的复杂性,此模型在准确率和普适性方面仍存在许多不足。本文结合已有的成果进一步改进王正非模型,增加了可燃物湿度对林火蔓延速度的影响,改进了林火初始速度的计算方式。针对各种坡度对林火蔓延行为的影响给出了一个计算公式。与改进前相比,改进后的模型使其对林火蔓延情况的预估更为精准。     

Cohort‐specific variation in juvenile coho salmon habitat use

In this study, we examined summer and fall freshwater rearing habitat use by juvenile coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) in the quickly urbanising Big Lake drainage in south‐central Alaska. Habitat use was assessed by regressing fish count data against habitat survey information across thirty study sites using generalised linear mixed models. Habitat associations were examined by age‐0 and age‐1+ cohorts separately, providing an opportunity to compare habitat use across different juvenile coho salmon life stages during freshwater rearing. Regression results indicated that the age‐0 cohorts were strongly associated with shallow, wide stream reaches with in‐stream vegetation, whereas age‐1+ cohorts were associated with deeper stream reaches. Furthermore, associations between fork length and habitat characteristics suggest cohort‐specific habitat use patterns are distinct from those attributable to fish size. Habitat use information generated from this study is being used to guide optimal fish passage restoration planning in the Big Lake drainage. Evidence for habitat use partitioning by age cohort during freshwater juvenile rearing indicates that pooling age cohorts into a single “juvenile” stage for the purposes of watershed management may mask important habitat use dynamics.     

亏缺灌溉对南疆棉花生长和水分利用的影响

针对南疆地区水资源短缺、作物水分利用效率低等问题,以棉花为试验材料进行田间小区试验,在棉花现蕾期、开花期以及结铃期分别设置3个亏缺灌溉水平(W₁:50%ET_c,W₂:65%ET_c,W₃:80%ET_c,ET_c为作物蒸发蒸腾量),以全生育期100%ET_c灌溉处理为对照(CK),研究膜下滴灌条件下,不同生育期亏缺灌溉对棉花生长、产量、氮素吸收和水分利用效率的影响.结果表明:现蕾期亏水对棉花株高、叶面积指数、地上干物质生长、氮素吸收和产量有不同程度的抑制效应,但复水后补偿效应显著,其中轻度亏水(W₃)在籽棉产量减少3.48%的条件下,WUE高达1.57 kg/m³,显著高于CK的1.48 kg/m³;开花期亏水,棉花的各项生长指标均有显著降低,复水后补偿效应不显著,不利于棉花生长发育;结铃期亏水对棉花地上干物质累积、氮素吸收和产量均有显著的抑制效应,但在W₂和W₃水平下,WUE均达1.51 kg/m³.综合考虑在保证棉花产量的同时达到节水增产的目的,可在棉花蕾期进行80%ET_c灌水,其他生育阶段实施充分灌溉,来控制营养生长,促进生殖生长,获得更高的水分利用效率.     

同源四倍体及其原二倍体黑皮冬瓜光合光响应模型筛选

为了筛选出最适合黑皮冬瓜Benincasa hispida (Thunb.) Cogn.的光合光响应模型,为其育种提供理论依据,以同源四倍体及其原二倍体黑皮冬瓜为试验材料,对8种经典的光合光响应模型适用性进行了比较分析。结果表明：二次多项式能够表现出光抑制情况,但在拟合过程中出现暗呼吸速率为正值、光补偿点为负值及无法解释当光强达到饱和后光合速率快速下降的问题;直角双曲线、非直角双曲线及指数函数Ⅰ、指数函数Ⅱ无法直接求取光饱和点、光补偿点,结合常用的光饱和点的计算方法得到的光饱和点与实测值均存在较大的偏差,且指数函数Ⅱ在计算光饱和点时表现出明显的人为性,也无法拟合光抑制情况,但4种模型拟合得到的光补偿点均与实测值相差不大;指数修正模型因系数β为负值,无法求取四倍体黑皮冬瓜材料的光饱和点和最大净光合速率,且拟合得到的四倍体黑皮冬瓜的光补偿点明显低于实测值;直角双曲线修正模型计算得到的暗呼吸速率及二倍体黑皮冬瓜的光饱和点明显低于实测值,但获得的四倍体及其二倍体的最大净光合速率与实测值最接近,说明其在拟合最大净光合速率上有优势;整体上分段函数计算得到的黑皮冬瓜的各光合参数与实测值最为接近,与实测值的平均相对误差最小,也能很好的拟合发生光抑制部分的光响应曲线。分段函数拟合同源四倍体及其原二倍体黑皮冬瓜光合光响应曲线效果较其他模型效果好,分段函数模型为黑皮冬瓜最适合的光合光响应模型。