基于EEF模型的昆明市生态系统发展状态评价

运用能值分析理论改进的生态足迹模型(EEF),对昆明市2002~2011年能值足迹的动态变化进行分析,并应用GM(1,1)模型,对未来10年人均能值进行预测。结果发现:EEF模型的计算数值明显高于传统模型;昆明市生态系统出现盈余,处于可持续发展状态;在自然环境、经济状况不发生"突变"的前提下,2012~2020年人均能值盈余呈下降趋势且年均递减率为20.57%,尽管生态系统没有赤字,但生态安全面临严峻挑战。本研究对"新昆明"建设及其生态系统的可持续发展将有着重要的启示。     

A tool for community-based assessment of the implications of development on water security in hillside watersheds

Development and population growth in Latin American countries with steep slope farming are likely to further increase pressures on water and land resources. A methodology was developed for assessing water availability and use under different development pathways at a watershed scale to determine whether water security is a potential problem, and if so, under what conditions it is likely to occur. This methodology makes use of a GIS-based spatial water budget model for simulating stream water availability, water use and stream flow control on a daily basis at a watershed scale. Here, we analysed water availability under three plausible development scenarios for the 3246 ha Cabuyal River watershed in southwest Colombia in the year 2025: Corporate Farming (CF), Ecological Watershed (EW), and Business as Usual (BU). Simulated average river flows at the watershed outlet were, respectively, 874, 796 and 925 l s⁻¹ for the CF, EW and BU scenarios. The contribution of base flow to river flow (base flow index) was on average, 80.8, 85.6 and 77.9%, respectively, for the three scenarios. The watershed had the potential to meet the anticipated increase in water use under each explorative scenario. However, dams were necessary to store irrigation water in the CF scenario, otherwise over 60% of the available water would have been used during the dry season. Such a high figure raises concerns about effects on aquatic and riparian ecology, concentrations of potential contaminants, water reserves for especially low rainfall years, and the watershed resilience to meet temporarily higher water needs during the day. Analyses indicated that current water-use conflicts in the watershed can be resolved if irrigation water supply is separated from drinking water supply. This study helped reduce some of the complexity associated with the interdependencies between land and water resources, the impact of using them, and spatial linkages within the watershed. Results of this study can be used for teaching local stakeholders about basic landscape responses and helping multi-institutional alliances to become proactive and to guide development to the benefit of local communities.     

系统动力学模型在吉林省水资源承载力的仿真应用

水资源短缺和水环境污染作为水资源危机的主要内容,在吉林省社会经济发展过程中广泛存在。对此,从人口、经济、生态、水资源和水环境等5个子系统,建立吉林省水资源承载力系统动力学模型,通过设计现状延续型、节约水量型、环境保护型、综合协调型4种情景,模拟2016-2025年吉林省水资源承载力。结果显示:现状延续型在水量和水质两要素均最差,为最劣方案;节水水量型和环境保护型分别在缓解水资源供需压力和改善水环境质量上有所建树,为非劣方案;综合协调型在水量和水质两要素均表现优异,为最优方案;2025年4种方案的水资源承载力排序为综合协调型>环境保护型>节约水量型>现状延续型。     

EXPLORING THE RECYCLING OF MANURE FROM URBAN LIVESTOCK FARMS: A CASE STUDY IN ETHIOPIA

• Livestock manure was the main organic waste in urban and peri-urban areas.• Manure production will increase by a factor of 3–10 between 2015–2050.• Only 13%–38% of excreted N by livestock will be recycled in croplands.• Intensification of urban livestock production greatly increased N surpluses.• Reducing population growth and increasing livestock productivity needed.Urban population growth is driving the expansion of urban and peri-urban agriculture (UPA) in developing countries. UPA is providing nutritious food to residents but the manures produced by UPA livestock farms and other wastes are not properly recycled. This paper explores the effects of four scenarios: (1) a reference scenario (business as usual), (2) increased urbanization, (3) UPA intensification, and (4) improved technology, on food-protein self-sufficiency, manure nitrogen (N) recycling and balances for four different zones in a small city (Jimma) in Ethiopia during the period 2015-2050. An N mass flow model with data from farm surveys, field experiments and literature was used. A field experiment was conducted and N use efficiency and N fertilizer replacement values differed among the five types of composts derived from urban livestock manures and kitchen wastes. The N use efficiency and N fertilizer replacement values were used in the N mass flow model.Livestock manures were the main organic wastes in urban areas, although only 20 to 40% of animal-sourced food consumed was produced in UPA, and only 14 to 19% of protein intake by residents was animal-based. Scenarios indicate that manure production in UPA will increase 3 to 10 times between 2015 and 2050, depending on urbanization and UPA intensification. Only 13 to 38% of manure N will be recycled in croplands. Farm-gate N balances of UPA livestock farms will increase to>1 t·ha⁻¹ in 2050. Doubling livestock productivity and feed protein conversion to animal-sourced food will roughly halve manure N production.Costs of waste recycling were high and indicate the need for government incentives. Results of these senarios are wake-up calls for all stakeholders and indicate alternative pathways.     

2012年黑龙江省水稻市场行情分析及后市展望

在市场需求旺盛、种植效益高的影响下,2012年黑龙江省农民种植水稻的积极性进一步提高,水稻种植面积再度扩大,稻米总产实现“九连增”。在国内外粮食价格持续走高、国家提高水稻最低收购价政策等因素支撑下,稻米价格将保持高位平稳运行的良好势头。     

RCPs气候情景下三江平原典型流域耕地动态模拟

选取三江平原典型流域挠力河流域为研究区,以1990、2002和2014年3期Landsat影像、DEM数据和社会经济统计资料等多源数据为基本信息源,结合3S技术,运用FLUS模型定量模拟代表性浓度路径情景系列(RCPs)下耕地动态变化特征。结果表明:24 a间挠力河流域的旱地面积变化幅度较小,水田面积持续增加,1990—2002年水田扩张剧烈,2002—2014年扩张速度趋于缓和;3个时点的旱地均沿东北-西南轴方向进行分布,主轴沿顺时针缓慢旋转,空间变化稳定,分布范围逐渐减小。水田沿东北-西南走向分布,1990—2002年其主轴逆时针旋转,后顺时针旋转至45.31°,整体分布较为离散,极化特征不明显;通过对比不同空间分辨率及时间尺度下模拟精度,确定最优模拟空间分辨率为200 m,最优模拟时间点为2038年;MESSAGE气候模式下,未来挠力河流域的旱地面积先减少后增加,水田继续维持扩张态势,2029年后面积将以2%速度逐年下降,其分布将更加聚集,主轴沿顺时针旋转,重心逐渐向东北方向进行偏移;AIM气候模式下,气候波动对水田的影响程度大于旱地,旱地面积持续缓慢增加,水田面积在波动中下降,空间分布的极化特征突出。     

不确定性条件下分布式农业生产预警模型构建与应用

构建了基于梯形模糊数和分布式作物模拟模型的空间分布式农业生产预警模型来实现作物产量和水分生产力综合警情预警预报。模型采用空间分布式作物产量和水分生产力作为警情指标来计算系统警级,引入梯形模糊数来表征目标产量和水分生产力的不确定性,采用空间分布式作物模拟模型来模拟常规灌溉、0.8倍常规灌溉和0.6倍常规灌溉下的作物产量和水分生产力,进而对现状1976—2012年和未来RCP4.5情景下2026—2045年不同灌溉水平下进行农业生产风险预报预警,并衡量了未来20年产量和水分生产力的静态协调度和每5年4个周期的动态协调度。结果表明,同一作物在不同土壤类型和不同灌溉水平下预警等级不同,警级随着灌溉水平的降低呈现不规则变化规律,协调性随着灌溉水平的降低而减小。模型能够识别出未来气候变化不同节水灌溉水平下的空间异质性作物产量和水分生产力的警级,实现精准化农业生产风险预警预报,有利于实现高效率降警处理。     

物种多样性研究进展

根据近期国内外文献，综述了物种多样性的概念、本质、产生、测度方法及研究现状，讨论了物种多样性研究过程中存在的一些问题，解释了那些看似矛盾的研究结论，指出了以后的研究方向。     

新一代温室气体排放情景下安徽省未来气候变化预估分析

基于联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)发布的新一代排放情景,和中国气象局发布的"中国地区气候变化预估数据集V3.0",针对安徽省,笔者选择1971—2000年作为基准期,采用区域气候模式模拟的方法,对比分析安徽省未来气候变化特征,重点评估近期内即未来20年气候变化趋势。模拟结果显示,未来20年不同情景下安徽省平均气温均为上升,全省平均增温幅度约0.9~1.1℃;而降水量变化具有不同特征,较低排放情景下降水量以上升为主,高排放情景则以下降为主。到2050s全省平均气温相比于基准期将升高1.6~1.7℃,升温幅度呈现北高南低的特征;全省降水量相比于基准期将下降50~90 mm,各地降水量均呈下降趋势。另外,通过对降水和气温的模拟,预估未来该地区旱涝演替更加频繁,高温热浪等事件也将进一步频发。     

全球变暖背景下江淮地区气候变化趋势预估

利用政府间气候变化委员会（IPCC）提供的20多个最新一代气候模式的预测结果,分析了中等排放SRESA1B情景下我国江淮地区2011～2100年的气候变化趋势。结果表明,在全球变暖的背景下,未来江淮地区年平均气温将不断上升,增温幅度由东南向西北逐渐升高,到21世纪末年平均气温将上升3.3℃;年平均降水量持续增多,降水增幅随纬度的升高以及随时间的推进而加大,且将在2041年后显著增强。