基于科技文献社会网络分析的"一带一路"科技情报安全研究

为明确中国在"一带一路"沿线国家所形成的科技网络中处于怎样的位置,面临怎样的科技情报风险,需要采取哪些措施维护中国科技情报安全,应用智库DIIS理论方法,对科学引文索引中2013年-2017年"一带一路"沿线国家论文合作数据进行社会网络分析,应用管理机制设计"七元组"理论开展科技情报安全机制设计。研究结果显示,中国科技情报的暴露程度较高,科技应用的不可控因素、知识产权保护的挑战、科技情报资源流失的风险同时存在,并与各种非传统安全问题相叠加。切实掌握核心技术,维护知识产权,加强政府、社会对科技交流的监管,防止科技情报被非法利用,是保障科技情报安全的主要途径。     

规模化畜牧养殖对生态环境的破坏及防治

近年,畜牧养殖业蓬勃发展,过去的区域化散养已经基本不存在,养殖结构逐渐向集约化、一体化、规模化过渡,养殖规模也逐渐增大。养殖副产品肉、蛋、奶等极大满足了人们的生产生活,养殖中产生的尿液、粪污对生态环境造成极大影响。为促进规模化养殖实现绿色健康发展,该文分析规模化畜牧养殖对生态环境的破坏及防治措施。     

围场县马铃薯中典型药物污染特征及健康风险评价

为掌握典型药物在农作物中的污染特征及健康风险,保障农产品质量安全,利用超声萃取-固相萃取-高效液相色谱/串联质谱(LC-MS/MS)技术,对围场县全县马铃薯中5大类(磺胺类、四环素类、氟喹诺酮类、大环内酯类及其他类)25种药物污染水平及富集效果进行了调查,并对健康风险进行了评价。结果表明,有20种目标物被检出,不同目标物检出率差异显著,检出含量范围为0.13～3.67μg·kg-1,单种污染物最高检出含量为17.0μg·kg-1。马铃薯对目标污染物的富集系数范围在0.01～39.6之间,最大富集系数为61.8。畜禽粪便是马铃薯中药物残留的主要来源,尽管整体检出水平和健康风险相对较低,但长期摄入与协同作用引发的潜在健康风险不容忽视。因此,仍需严控污染源头,推进畜禽粪便安全资源化利用,确保农田环境质量及农产品安全品质。     

浙江省油菜花期降水量风险评估

对浙江省66个县市(区)1971—2014年油菜花期降水量及油菜产量资料进行统计分析,并基于信息扩散的风险评估模型,对浙江省油菜花期降水量在各级降水量下的超越概率进行计算分析,评估各地油菜花期面临的旱涝风险;同时分析了浙江省油菜花期各级降水量风险值与油菜产量变化之间的关系。结果表明:油菜花期降水量严重过剩的风险高值区主要位于浙西南地区,降水量短缺风险高值区主要位于浙江省沿海岛屿及宁波的部分县市;浙江省油菜花期降水量短缺基本可以通过灌溉得到改善,但油菜减产与花期降水量过多显著相关,油菜花期降水量300 mm是油菜是否减产的阈值。该结果可为油菜种植合理布局及农业保险政策提供科学依据。     

麻类纤维在非织造领域的应用

本文阐述了麻类纤维在我国非织造行业新用途的开发和拓展，对麻类纤维在非织造领域的利用符合国家农业可持续性发展的方向。     

An evaluation of the pesera soil erosion model and its application to a case study in Zakynthos, Greece

Abstract. The Pan‐European Soil Erosion Risk Assessment (pesera ) model was evaluated using existing soil erosion data collected under various types of climate, vegetation, landscape and soil conditions. The data used represent a variety of typical Mediterranean land uses such as winter wheat, vines, olives and bare, stony land prevailing in hilly areas. Using this data, the model was calibrated for sediment transport by overland flow and results compared to measured soil erosion values from runoff plots and a watershed on a monthly basis. The performance of the model was assessed statistically, showing that it can be satisfactorily used for predicting soil erosion rates under the conditions included in the study. The overall model estimate including all the available experimental data was 0.69 t ha^?1 yr^?1 with a maximum error of 1.49 t ha^?1 yr^?1. After validation, the model was applied to a small watershed (60 ha) of great ecological importance for the sea turtle Caretta caretta. For this purpose, soil and vegetation maps were compiled from all the necessary data for applying the model. The model was run for three years using daily data from an existing nearby meteorological station. The predicted and measured soil erosion rates for a 7‐month period were 0.31 t and 0.18 t, respectively. Application of the model to each mapping unit showed the over‐riding importance of land use for sediment generation under the given climatic conditions. Bare land, occupying 5.5% of the watershed area, generated up to 69% of the total sediments estimated for the watershed. It is concluded that the pesera model can be used as a regional diagnostic tool under a range of soil, topographic and climatic conditions for identifying the best land use type and vegetation cover to protect hilly areas from soil erosion. The calculated overall root mean square error for the model is 0.06 t ha^?1 yr^?1, compared to a soil erosion rate of 0.04 t ha^?1 yr^?1, which can be tolerated for protecting the area for the sea turtle.     

超高产水稻产量形成的气候生态特点研究

在云南和湖南异地异季种植，研究了水稻超高产形成的相应气候生态条件，结果表明：超高产水稻具有大穗、多穗、高结实率的特点．云南试区具有日较差大、日照时数多、相对湿度低，平均温度较低的气候特点，故水稻生育期较长，同化物积累多，成穗率高，灌浆强度大．湖南试区阴雨寡照是影响产量的重要因素．     

入世风险与农村现行双层经营制度的变迁

中国加入WTO之后 ,农民不仅要承担其他国家农民所承担的自然风险与市场风险 ,还要承担因现行双层经营制度带来的预期不确定性的风险 ,其根源在于现行的经营制度呈现出极大的“体制锁定”的色彩。要打破这种体制锁定 ,必须两条腿走路 :诱致性创新与强制性创新并举。既精减机构 ,明确政府的责、权、利 ,又扶植与培育农民联合体 ,增强市场创新主体分摊成本的能力与赢利能力 ,从而确保新体制的生命力与竞争力。     

Relating Kirtland's warbler population to changing landscape composition and structure

The population of male Kirtland's warbler (Dendroica kirtlandii) in the breeding season has averaged 206 from 1971 to 1987. The Kirtland's warbler occupies dense jack pine (Pinus banksiana) barrens from 5 to 23 years old and from 1.4 to 5.0 m high, formerly of wildfire origin. In 1984, 73% of the males censused were found in habitat naturally regenerated from wildfire or prescribed burning. The rest were in plantations (11%) or in harvested, unburned jack pine stands stocked by natural regeneration (16%). Twenty-two percent (630 of 2,886) of the Kirtland's warbler males counted in the annual censuses from 1971 through 1984 were found in 26 stands that were unburned and naturally regenerated following harvest. From 1982 to 1987, suitable regenerating areas were barely sufficient to replace currently occupied maturing stands, so population growth was impeded. Ecosystems of suitable size and regeneration characteristics (wildfire and plantation) doubled in area by 1989. In response, the population of Kirtland's warblers increased from 167 to 398 males between 1987 and 1992, but they withdrew almost entirely from the unburned, unplanted barrens by 1989 when the area of more suitable regeneration types increased. Minimum (368 males) and maximum (542 males) population estimates for 1996 were calculated based on 1984 average density (1.9 males per 40 ha) and peak population in burns (2.8 males per 40 ha).     

Landscape change under indirect effects of human use: the Savanna of Central Chile

The Chilean Intermediate Depression to the north of Santiago has experienced a physiognomical transformation from a Prosopis chilensis woodland to an Acacia caven savanna. Today P. chilensis trees are scarce and belong mostly to the larger size classes. By contrast A. caven seems to reproduce frequently and its populations consist of individuals of all size classes. In this paper we document these changes and report the results of tests aimed at determining the causes of these physiognomical changes. We found that livestock, leporids, introduced Mediterranean forbs and agriculture account for differences in seed dispersal and survival of A. caven and P. chilensis, which can explain the documented changes in the Chilean landscape.