化肥投入的环境经济分析

本文通过对化肥使用的收益成本分析及其对环境造成的影响,利用二次生产函数模型,以洞庭湖区农民的化肥投入为案例,分别考虑粮食产量最大、农民经济收益最大和净经济效益最大3种情况的化肥投入量,进而提出化肥控制和管理对策的最佳管理措施建议。     

水权交易赋能农民增收的作用机理与推进路径

水权交易是促进农民增收、缩小城乡差距的新路径,也是实现农民持续增收的长效机制。本文系统梳理了水权交易的历史演变历程,基于成本收益的视角,分析了水权交易赋能农民增收的作用机理,结合水权交易的现状特点剖析了赋能过程中的现实困境,探讨相应的推进路径。研究表明,水权交易制度在我国的演变历程经历了萌芽期、停滞期和探索期三个阶段。农民作为水权交易的重要参与者,在参与水权交易的过程中能通过影响其经营性收入、转移性收入和农业用水成本三个方面实现利润的增长。但是,水权交易赋能农民增收也面临着一些问题,集中表现在政府与市场“两只手”未协同发力、奖补政策尚未得到全面落实、水费计量模式整体粗放、水权交易应用推广不到位等。因此,水权交易赋能农民增收应进一步推进水权改革,激发水权市场活力,明确水权交易奖补标准与资金来源,完善农业水资源计量监测设施,因地制宜推广并创新水权交易形式。     

铋剂四联疗法根除幽门螺杆菌疗效研究

目的比较不同疗程铋剂四联疗法与经典三联疗法根除幽门螺杆菌(Hp)的疗效。方法 选择403 例符合条件的Hp阳性的消化性溃疡或慢性胃炎患者。随机分为三组,其中A 组138 例、B 组142 例、C 组123 例。A组采用果胶铋200 mg+雷贝拉唑10 mg+阿莫西林1 000 mg+呋喃唑酮100 mg,2次/天,共10 d;B组采用果胶铋200 mg+雷贝拉唑10 mg+阿莫西林1 000 mg+呋喃唑酮100 mg,2次/天,共14 d;C组采用雷贝拉唑10 mg+阿莫西林1 000 mg+呋喃唑酮100 mg,2次/天,共14 d。观察三组患者Hp根除率、不良反应发生率及其成本-效果比。结果 A、B、C三组患者Hp根除率分别为83.33%、83.80%、71.54%,A组与B组Hp根除率比较差异无统计学意义(P>0.05),A组与C组、B组与C组Hp根除率比较均差异有统计学意义(P<0.05)。A、B、C三组患者的不良反应发生率分别为 1.45%、2.11%、0.81%,均差异无统计学意义(P>0.05)。A、B、C三组成本-效果比分别为1.50、2.09、2.04。结论 三种治疗方案均未达到Hp根除率>90%的理想方案。但三种方案的比较中含铋剂10 d与14 d四联疗法Hp根除率较高,接近理想方案。含铋剂10 d四联疗法成本-效果比最好,建议临床使用。14 d三联疗法Hp根除率仅达71.54%,远低于理想标准,不建议临床使用。     

Cereal leaf beetles (Oulema spp., Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae) control following various dates of wheat sowing and insecticidal treatments

In this paper, we report the sowing date and intensity of chemical control on presence of the cereal leaf beetles (CLB) on spring wheat. The CLB monitoring (Oulema melanopus L. and Oulema gallaeciana Voet.) was conducted in May–June of each year, following the announcement of the IOR-PiB in Poznań (Institute of Plant Protection, National Research Institute), that economic threshold levels in Poland of this pest is observed. For the spring sowing dates between (20 March–20 April) and late autumn sowings (21 November–7 December) larger amounts of CLB adults (1.6–1.1) in comparison to early autumn sowings (25 October–02 November) were noticed (0.4). Following the insecticidal seed treatment with imidacloprid, the occurrence of adults was 0.2–0.7 individual per stem, while the use of fungicidal treatment with triadimenol–imazalil–fuberidazol resulted in average 1.1–2.2 individual per stem. The reduction in the number of larvae per stem was 7–10 fold larger following the foliar application (pirimicarb + dimethoate + cypermethrin) compared to the seed treatment with imidacloprid. The lowest grain yield (3.83 t ha^?1) from the spring crop without any insecticide was obtained. Foliar application with blend of pirimicarb + dimethoate + cypermethrin increased the yield crop by 0.41 t ha^?1 (10.7%) and additionally by 0.78 t ha^?1 (20.4%) to compare to the fungicidal control when imidacloprid was used. Wheat seed treatment with imidacloprid and sowing date in autumn showed to be suitable and economically efficient preventive strategies for controlling the pest population.     

Evaluation of effectiveness and efficiency of wild bird surveillance for avian influenza

This study aimed to assess which method of wild waterbird surveillance had the greatest probability of detecting highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 during a period of surveillance activity, the cost of each method was also considered. Lake Constance is a major wintering centre for migratory waterbirds and in 2006 it was the site of an HPAI H5N1 epidemic in wild birds. Avian influenza surveillance was conducted using harmonised approaches in the three countries around the lake, Austria, Germany and Switzerland, from 2006–2009. The surveillance consisted of testing birds sampled by the following methods: live birds caught in traps, birds killed by hunters, birds caught in fishing nets, dead birds found by the public and catching live Mute Swans (Cygnus olor); sentinel flocks of Mallards (Anas platyrhynchos) were also used. Scenario tree analysis was performed including sensitivity analysis, followed by assessment of cost-effectiveness. Results indicated that if HPAI H5N1 was present at 1% prevalence and assuming HPAI resulted in bird mortality, sampling dead birds found by the public and sentinel surveillance were the most sensitive approaches despite residual uncertainty over some parameters. The uncertainty over the mortality of infected birds was an influential factor. Sampling birds found dead was most cost-effective, but strongly dependent on mortality and awareness of the public. Trapping live birds was least cost-effective. Based on our results, we recommend that future HPAI H5N1 surveillance around Lake Constance should prioritise sentinel surveillance and, if high mortality is expected, the testing of birds found dead.     

小流域非点源污染管理措施的多目标优化配置模拟

基于"风险评价—规划分区—分别管理"的非点源污染管理思路,采用非点源污染风险评价模型、最佳管理措施(best management practices,BMPs)评估体系及非支配排序遗传算法相耦合的方式,对北京怀柔区北宅小流域非点源污染进行不同空间尺度下最佳管理措施空间优化配置模拟,为小流域非点源污染最佳管理措施的实施,提供决策支持。研究结果表明:1)非点源污染潜力高风险区为距离河道较近受人为活动影响明显的居民区、养殖场和耕地,为重点管理区;2)根据污染物污染控制功效、成本投入以及景观美学功效3个方面综合评价结果对拟实施的BMPs进行综合评分排序,人工湿地、入渗池、绿屋顶、植物蓄留池等以下渗过程为主要污染控制机制类措施,可作为BMPs情景配置的优选措施;3)不同空间尺度下最佳管理措施空间优化配置模拟表明,流域层面BMPs最优方案为为生物滞留池0,湿式滞留池105 000元,占总成本的8%,入渗沟469 560元,占总成本的92%,总氮、总磷年污染负荷量综合削减率45%;村庄层面BMPs优化配置方案为生物滞留池3 105元,占总成本的0.8%;湿式滞留池21 000元,占总成本的5.6%;绿屋顶216 306元,占总成本的64%;透水性路面11 0736元,占总成本的29.6%。总氮、总磷年污染负荷综合削减率能够达到46%;农户层面BMPs优化配置方案为绿屋顶0元;雨水罐38元,占总成本的2.5%;生物滞留池675元,占总成本的44.5%;透水性路面805元,占总成本的53%。总氮和总磷两种污染物的年污染负荷削减率65%。     

精细水平畦灌灌水质量及效益评价

针对河套灌区宽畦田、大畦块导致的灌水效率低的问题,为探求变化环境下适宜畦田规格参数,通过不同畦宽下的精细水平畦灌灌水试验,分析了水流运动状态、灌水质量以及成本效益等变化情况。结果表明:(1)畦宽对土壤入渗水深以及灌水质量均有较大影响,畦宽为23m时水流推进时间延长,畦首入渗水深增大,有效水利用效率BWUF和灌水均匀度Du仅有59.78%~77.40%,84.61%~87.02%,灌水效果不佳;畦宽缩小到10~15m时,BWUF和Du分别增加11.96%~20.61%和2.49%~5.95%,灌水质量有显著提高;畦宽缩小到5m时,相对入畦单宽流量增大,大量灌溉水聚集在畦尾,使得畦尾入渗水深增加,畦首入渗不足,导致田面水流分布不均匀,灌水质量降低。(2)通过分析各处理成本构成以及产量效益情况,可以发现农业生产中花费最大的仍然是化肥、种子、地膜等其他费用,占到总种植成本Tc的70%以上;实施激光平地和缩宽等措施后田埂数量增加,导致机械成本较当地对照处理增加0.3~4.6倍,尽管水费略有减少,但Tc仍增加2.72%~9.98%。(3)在开展节水试验时,其节水效果和经济效益通常是矛盾的,节水效果好的方案往往经济效益较差,而节水效果较差的方案其经济效益反而会有所提高,建议在灌区推广节水新技术时按照1095~1665元/hm^2的补贴标准对农民发放节水补贴进而来增加农民积极性。(4)通过分析经济、节水效益不同权重组合下的综合效益函数,初步确定在进行方案优选时,若优先考虑节水可适当缩小畦宽,若优先考虑经济效益可适当放大畦宽,均可使其综合效益达到最大。研究结果可为灌区农业高效可持续发展提供理论依据。     

2种中药注射剂治疗小儿急性上呼吸道感染的成本-效果比及社会效益评价

目的 分析热毒宁注射液和痰热清注射液治疗小儿急性上呼吸道感染的成本-效果优势及社会效益。方法 回顾性调查323例急性上呼吸道感染患儿,其中使用热毒宁注射液的115例,痰热清注射液的101例,利巴韦林注射液的107例,以利巴韦林组为对照组,考察热毒宁组和痰热清组的成本-效果优势及社会效益。结果 热毒宁组和痰热清组的总有效率和不良反应发生率差异均无统计学意义（P>0.0125）,但均优于利巴韦林组（P<0.0125）;3组成本-效果比分别为1.64、1.77和0.13;相对利巴韦林组,热毒宁组和痰热清组的增量成本-效果比分别为9.75和11.96。每治愈1例次患儿,痰热清组较热毒宁组多花8.82元,平均疗程多1.4 d,每家庭每例患儿年均将多花52.92元,年均将多占8.4天次诊疗机会,全院年均将多耗264.6万元,年均将多占42万天次诊疗机会。结论 治疗小儿急性上呼吸道感染,热毒宁注射液较痰热清注射液更具成本-效果优势和社会效益。