VORTEX模型及其在小种群保护中的作用

介绍了VORTEX模拟模型的产生和特点,同时综述了国内在小种群保护上所做的一些工作。     

Small mammals, habitat patches and PVA models: a field test of model predictive ability

The results are described of comparisons between actual values for patch occupancy for two species of Australian small mammals (Bush Rat Rattus fuscipes and Agile Antechinus Antechinus agilis) determined from field sampling and predictions of patch occupancy made using VORTEX, a generic simulation model for Population Viability Analysis (PVA). The work focussed on a fragmented forest in south-eastern Australia comprised of a network of 39 patches of native eucalypt forest surrounded by extensive stands of exotic softwood Radiata Pine (Pinus radiata) plantation. A range of modelling scenarios were completed in which four broad factors were varied: (1) inter-patch variation in habitat quality; (2) the pattern of inter-patch dispersal; (3) the rate of inter-patch dispersal; and (4) the population sink effects of the Radiata Pine matrix that surrounded the eucalypt patches. Model predictions were made for the total number of animals, the distribution of animal density among patches, the total number of occupied patches, and the probability of patch occupancy. Predictions were then compared with observed values for these same measures based on extensive field surveys of small mammals in the patch system. For most models for the Bush Rat, the predicted relative density of animals per patch correlated well with the values estimated from field surveys. Predictions of patch occupancy were not significantly different from the actual value for the number of occupied patches in half the models tested. The better models explained 10-16% of the log-likelihood of the probability of patch occupancy. While some of the models gave reasonable forecasts of the number of occupied patches, even in these cases, they had only moderate ability to predict which patches were occupied. Field surveys revealed there was no relationship between patch area and population density for the Agile Antechinus—an outcome correctly predicted by only a few models. Five of the 18 scenarios completed for the Agile Antechinus gave predicted numbers of occupied patches not significantly different from the observed number. In each of these five cases, large standard deviations around the mean predicted value meant uncertainty generated by the simulation model limited the predictive power of the PVA. Some of the models gave reasonable predictions for the number of occupied patches, but those models were unable to predict which ones were actually occupied. The results of our study suggest that key processes influencing which specific patches would be occupied were not modelled appropriately. High levels of variability and fecundity drive the population dynamics of the Bush Rat and Agile Antechinus, making the patch system unpredictable and difficult to model accurately. Despite the fact that both the Bush Rat and the Agile Antechinus are two of the most studied mammals in Australia, there are attributes of their biology that are presently poorly understood (which were not included in the VORTEX model), but which could strongly influence patch occupancy. For example, local landscape features may be important determinants of inter-patch movement and habitat utilisation in the patch system. Further empirical studies are needed to explore this aspect of small mammal biology.     

The sustainability of the common crane (Grus grus) flock breeding in Norfolk: insights from simulation modelling

VORTEX computer simulations were used to assess the viability of a small breeding flock of common cranes, recently established in Norfolk. Investigations were also conducted on the relative impact of various management options. Raising the carrying capacity of the site had little influence on the survival of the flock. However, great improvements were associated with increases in the size of the founder flock and reductions in the mortality rates of chicks and adults. Regularly supplementing the population increased flock survival times: for a fixed total number of birds added, frequently supplementing with few birds produced the best results. Immigration from the population in continental Europe also increased persistence of the flock, and it is possible that immigration rates will improve as the British flock expands. Strategies including captive breeding, and regular supplementation of the flock, may be the most effective means of ensuring the viability of the Norfolk cranes. The potential value of simulation models in guiding management of small populations is discussed.     

Factors affecting the population viability of the burbot,Lota lota

Abstract Population viability analysis (PVA) is a frequently used conservation tool for the assessment of long‐term survival of populations. Based on demographic information from published literature, a PVA model using VORTEX was constructed for the burbot Lota lota (L.), a freshwater fish species believed extinct in the United Kingdom since the 1970s. The model was constructed to evaluate the persistence of a single burbot population over a 100‐year period as part of an assessment of the feasibility of reintroducing the species to rivers of its former distribution in England. Population persistence was highly variable and dependent on juvenile survival and spawning regularity. Under high juvenile survival scenarios, all populations persisted and were maintained at the carrying capacity. At low juvenile survival, population persistence was highly influenced by spawning regularity. Sensitivity analysis indicated that females must successfully spawn approximately every second year to guarantee 95% population survival. The analysis suggests that the long‐term viability of any potential reintroduced burbot population will be dependent on the environmental conditions related to spawning success.     

Minimum viable population and conservation status of the Atlantic Forest spiny rat Trinomys eliasi

A population viability analysis (PVA) was conducted to assess the minimum viable population (MVP) of the Atlantic Forest spiny rat Trinomys eliasi, a species threatened by habitat loss and restricted geographical distribution. Objectives were to suggest quasi-extinction thresholds, estimate minimum areas of suitable habitat (MASH) and MVPs, and compare results with the species’ current status. The computer package VORTEX was used. The model predicted sizes of 200 animals to achieve demographic stability, but buffering declines in genetic variability required populations of 2000 animals. Estimated MASHs were approximately 250 and 2500 ha for demographic and genetic stability, respectively. Mortality rate and mean litter size were the most sensitive parameters to changes in model assumptions. The protection of known populations and the search for extant populations are the first steps in conservation. T. eliasi's issue could help protecting the coastal shrubland ecosystem of Rio de Janeiro state. Observing IUCN's criteria for listing threatened species, it is suggested that T. eliasi should be ranked as vulnerable in red lists.     

Illegal killing slows population recovery of a re-introduced raptor of high conservation concern - The red kite Milvus milvus

The re-introduction of extirpated species is a valuable conservation tool. Red kites Milvus milvus are declining over much of their European range and have been re-introduced to England and Scotland, following their extinction due to widespread human persecution during the 19th century. Considerable regional variation in population growth exists. This study aims to identify the proximate demographic and ultimate environmental constraints on red kites in north Scotland, a region with low population growth. Productivity in north Scotland was high compared to other Scottish and Welsh populations and equal to English populations with high population growth rates. In north Scotland, annual survival of wild-fledged birds was low for first-year birds compared to other Scottish populations and second-year survival declined over time. In north Scotland, 40% of 103 red kites found dead were killed illegally, mainly by direct poisoning. In the absence of illegal killing, we estimate that annual survival rates in wild red kites might increase from 0.37 to 0.54, 0.72 to 0.78 and 0.87 to 0.92 for first, second-year and adult birds respectively. Demographic rates from this study produce population trends that recapitulate observed trends for the north Scotland population (leading to a population of c40 pairs by 2006). Models in which the additive illegal killing mortality is excluded, predict a population trajectory and size (c300 pairs by 2006) very similar to that found in the Chilterns, a rapidly growing population (320 pairs in 2006) in south-east England re-introduced at the same time, but where rates of illegal killing are much lower. We conclude that illegal killing of red kites is the cause of poor population growth in north Scotland and the key challenge facing government is to find a way to eliminate this killing.