A context for recruitment correlations: why marine fisheries biologists should still look for them

In many cases when ecologists want to investigate a process, they often look for the best system on which to conduct the research, "best" meaning that the possibility of discovering mechanisms is optimized or made easier in some way. In fisheries we do it backwards. The species and system are given to us by economics, and we then fly in the face of the difficult circumstances to find mechanisms that are elusive anyway. These difficult circumstances constitute in some sense the first set of statistical problems. Using examples from the Northeast Pacific, I review the characteristics of cohort time series that make some species more tractable; propose a conscious process of conceptualization to assist in the formulation of clear, germane hypotheses; highlight the contrast between modeling in the sense of statistical fitting versus simulation models of processes; explore how the first round of models integrates with the second round of planning for new data collection at sea and in the lab; and, finally, propose how to judge success in terms of an operational approach.     

Evaluation of two N cycle models for the prediction of N mineralization from grassland soils in the UK

Abstract. The ability of two nitrogen cycle models, of contrasting complexity, to predict N mineralization from a range of grassland soils in the UK, was evaluated. These were NCYCLE, a simple mass balance model of the N cycle in UK grasslands, and CENTURY, a more complex model simulating long-term C, N, P & S dynamics in grassland ecosystems. The models were tested using field measurements of net N mineralization from a range of grassland soils (differing in soil type, history & management practice), obtained over a 2 year period using a soil core incubation technique. This method was considered to measure the total net release of mineral N from the soil organic matter over a specified time, including N which may have been recycled several times. NCYCLE consistently under-estimated mineralization rates at all sites. By contrast, there was some correlation between CENTURY predictions of net N mineralization and field measurements. This may have reflected the different abilities of the two models to simulate N recycling. Neither model, however, was able to predict adequately the effect of cultivation and reseeding on net N mineralization.     

刺槐单株生物量动态研究

本文依据420株刺槐生物量及23株树干解析资料,应用灰色Verhulst模型,对太行山坡地刺槐林单株干、枝、叶、根生物量动态进行了研究,分别建立了预测模型,预测了各器官生长的速生期和停止生长林龄,为实现刺槐林的多目标经营提供决策依据。     

Distribution and diversity of leaf-cutting ants in Northeastern Argentina: species most associated with forest plantations

Abstract

Leaf-cutting ants (LCA) are considered one of the main herbivores and one of the most destructive pest insects of the Neotropics. Northeastern Argentina harbors the greatest species richness of these ants and in turn comprises the highest surface with forest plantations. Our aim was to establish which species of leaf-cutting ants are most commonly associated with forest plantations by analyzing their geographic distribution using published and unpublished species occurrence data. Also, estimate their potential areas of distribution along a latitudinal gradient that entirely encompasses northeastern Argentina using Ecological Niche Modeling. Only seven of the 20 species recorded were strongly associated with productive systems along the gradient, but only 2–3 species in each region could be considered high-risk species for forest plantations. High-risk species composition shows a turnover between regions. Our models show the potential distribution areas where LCA could become more abundant and dominant, and possibly causing a detrimental effect on the forest plantations in the studied region. We find that ecological niche models are useful tools to assess the environmental suitability of important LCA.     

基于Sentinel-2多光谱数据的棉花叶面积指数估算

棉花叶面积指数（leaf are index, LAI）的快速、准确获取对棉花长势监测、发育期诊断、面积提取以及产量估算等遥感监测具有重要意义。该研究利用2017年和2018年的Sentinel-2多光谱卫星数据及大面积田间试验观测获取的棉花不同发育期LAI实测数据,构建了基于单波段反射率及各类植被指数的棉花不同发育期及全发育期LAI估算模型,并采用留一验证（LOOCV, leave-one-out cross validation）和交叉验证对模型精度进行了检验。结果表明：1）对于单波段反射率,基于中心波长为842 nm波宽为145 nm的B8近红外波段对不同发育期LAI估算精度最优均方根误差（RMSE, root mean square error, RMSE=0.378）;2）对于各类植被指数,花蕾期（20170616）和花铃期（20170802）时增强植被指数（EVI, enhanced vegetation index,）表现最佳（RMSE分别为0.352和0.367）,开花期（20180623）时校正土壤调节植被指数（MSAVI2, modified soil adjusted vegetation index 2,）估算精度最高（RMSE=0.323）;3）单波段反射率和各类植被指数对全发育期LAI的估算均要优于对单个发育期LAI的估算,其中基于IRECI指数的（inverted red-edge chlorophyll index）全发育期LAI估算模型精度最佳,LOOCV检验RMSE=0.425,交叉检验RMSE=0.368;将基于IRECI的全发育期LAI估算模型应用到单个发育期LAI估算并与各单个发育期LAI估算模型精度对比,发现交叉验证RMSE平均值仅比LOOCV验证RMSE平均值高0.07,反映了全发育期LAI估算模型良好的普适性。该研究为农作物LAI估算提供了新的数据选择,完善了Sentinel-2卫星数据在LAI估算中的应用领域。     

开放式太阳能物料干燥热湿迁移模型的构建及验证

基于开放式太阳能物料干燥过程中存在干燥品质不可控、随机性较大的问题。根据传热传质理论知识,建立开放式太阳能物料干燥热湿迁移预测模型,在综合考虑太阳能辐射、室外空气温湿度、室外风速等影响因素的基础上,对模型中的参数进行选择,并利用MATLAB软件编制求解程序,该模型能够预测出干燥过程中物料表面的温度及水分迁移速率变化。为验证模型的准确性,以红薯为干燥物料对其开放式太阳能干燥过程进行试验测试。结果表明：物料表面温度、水分迁移速率的模拟值与试验值之间的决定系数分别为0.96、0.89,均方根误差分别为0.97 ℃、28.35 g,其相关性程度较高,说明该模型能够较准确预测开放式太阳能物料干燥过程中物料表面温度及水分迁移速率,可以用于开放式太阳能干燥的工艺控制。     

基于三角模型的喀斯特地区土地利用系统健康评价

喀斯特地区作为一种典型的土地生态环境区域,对其土地利用系统健康状态和趋势进行评价是诊断由人类活动引起的土地利用系统破坏和退化程度的重要手段。该文在界定土地利用系统健康评价概念的基础上,通过土地利用系统的结构性指数、功能性指数和效益指数构建评价指标体系,建立土地利用系统健康评价的三角模型,并对2005-2012年贵阳市土地利用系统的健康状态和趋势进行了分析和评价,提出了优化土地利用系统健康状态的路径。结果表明：贵阳市土地利用系统的健康水平先后经历了不健康、亚健康、初级健康和中级健康4个状态阶段,具有逐渐向高级健康状态发展的趋势,在未来应该优化土地资源配置,提升经济建设基础保障水平并结合自然优势,充分利用土地发展绿色生态经济,充分利用先进信息技术水平,建立土地利用系统健康状态预警系统以优化土地利用系统的健康水平。该研究能够为生态脆弱区的土地利用及保护提供理论和实践参考。     

U形渠道圆头量水柱测流影响因素试验及模拟

为研究U形渠道圆头量水柱的测流规律及影响因素,基于绕流理论和RNG k-?湍流模型,对18种体型圆头量水柱5种工况下的水力性能进行全流场数值计算,获得了时均流场、断面流速分布及柱后水流流态,并与实测值进行对比。同时,通过模型试验与数值仿真研究了V形尾翼对测流的影响。结果表明：水力参数的实测值与模拟值具有较好的一致性,渠道底坡为1/1 000,流量为45.01 L/s,收缩比及长宽比分别为0.50和2时,驻点处横断面最大流速模拟值与实测值相对误差为1.51%,水深15 cm位置剖面最大流速模拟值与实测值相对误差为0.45%。适宜长宽比的V形尾翼可以有效改善过槽水流：当收缩比为0.50～0.75时,建议长宽比为3/2～2;当收缩比＜0.50时,长宽比应相应增大,但不宜＞5/2。通过回归分析得到的圆头量水柱流量计算公式,在收缩比为0.63时最大测流误差为4.95%,平均误差仅为0.10%,该研究为圆头量水柱在中国北方灌区末级渠系的进一步应用提供参考。     

一维马尔可夫链模拟黑河中游流域土壤质地垂向变异

黑河中游地区土壤剖面砂、黏层次相间排列的特点及部分区域剖面中出现的不透水层对土壤中的水分运动和溶质迁移具有重要影响。该研究调查了黑河中游100 km2区域内土壤剖面的质地分层情况,运用一维嵌入马尔可夫链模型模拟该地区的土壤质地剖面。研究表明,研究区土壤剖面共出现砂土、壤质砂土、砂质壤土、壤土、黏质壤土、粉黏壤土和粉黏土7种质地类型,层次厚度呈对数正态分布。粉黏土未在表层土壤出现,而砂土在表层出现的概率明显高于其余质地类型,剖面某一质地层之下多出现细粒含量比其高的下一质地类型。剖面上相邻两质地层之间的转移具有明显的马尔可夫链特征（简称马氏性）,且马氏链是平稳的。一维嵌入马尔可夫链模型能够较好地描述研究区土壤质地层次的垂向变化,剖面主要的质地层次组合为：砂—壤、壤—砂、壤—黏、黏—壤。对土壤质地剖面的定量模拟,可以为开展该区域土壤水循环、转化和溶质迁移等相关研究提供参考。