Impacts of chronic marine oil pollution and the murre hunt in Newfoundland on thick-billed murre Uria lomvia populations in the eastern Canadian Arctic

We developed a deterministic and stochastic age-based matrix projection population model to assess and quantify the impact of mortality caused by chronic oil pollution and legal hunting on thick-billed murre Uria lomvia populations breeding and wintering in eastern Canada. We calculate the potential population growth rate in the absence of anthropogenic mortality sources using a modeling technique that translates absolute number of birds killed from anthropogenic mortality to potential survival rates in the absence of these anthropogenic impacts. The intrinsic growth rate of the deterministic matrix based on vital rates from Coats Island (λ_d=1.0102), as well as the stochastic growth rate (λ_s=1.0098, 95% C.I. 0.9969-1.0226), matched observed population trends. Hunting mortality reduced population growth rate by 0.020 (0.012-0.039), oiling mortality reduced population growth rate by 0.025 (0.012-0.039). Combined these sources reduced the population growth rate by 0.047 (0.033-0.610). Although thick-billed murre populations are stable or slowly growing in eastern Canada, anthropogenic sources of mortality are reducing the ability of the population to grow, and increase vulnerability in these populations to changes in their environment and other pulse perturbations. Our modeling technique could be used to assess specific anthropogenic impacts on populations where a vital rates and numbers killed are known, but no long-term trend information is available.