Suitability of Multi-Agent Simulations to study irrigated system viability: application to case studies in the Senegal River Valley

It is assumed that Agent-Based Modeling is a useful technique for water management issues. In particular, it may provide a suitable framework for representing irrigated systems. The objective of this paper is to demonstrate its potential for a specific use: research on irrigated systems’ viability in the Senegal River Valley. The main assumption to be verified is that Multi-Agent Systems constitute a suitable architecture to study theoretically irrigated systems’ viability using simulations. By using Multi-Agent Systems, virtual irrigated systems can be designed that might then be used as virtual laboratories. These virtual labs constitute an alternative when real labs cannot exist for some reason.

In this paper we report on experiments we have conducted using such virtual labs for exploring an Agent-Based Model through the simulation of scenarios. A scenario is defined as a triplet: an environment, a set of individual rules, a set of collective rules. It is evaluated according to the longevity of the irrigated system. An index is defined, based on the ratio of long-enduring simulations among a set of repetitions of a given scenario. Even if simulation results display significant diversity for a given scenario due to random factors in the processes simulated, the ratio of long-enduring simulations is repeatable. This entails to explore the overall behavior of the virtual irrigated system and to build theories concerning the viability of Senegalese irrigated systems. An example is given showing the need for strong coherence for a given environment among individual rules and collective rules.     

Trends in natural resource use and prospects for sustainable resource management in Kenya's Arid and Semiarid Lands

This paper describes the environmental problems facing the development of Kenya's Arid and Semiarid lands (ASAL) today. The problems arise because of a rapidly declining resource base in the ASAL as a result of overexploitation and misuse, following basic land use conflicts. The extent of the overutilization or resource damage is not well known and varies a great deal from one agroecological zone to another and from resource to resource in the ASAL; those most affected include: soil, water, range, forest, livestock and wildlife. As a result of increased population growth in the ASAL, these resources are under stress. This paper argues that many of the environmental problems in the ASAL cannot be solved if the development programme does not address the needs of the people who live in the ASAL. There is a need to shift the objective of ASAL development from a preoccupation with economic growth and the idea that the ASAL should make a contribution to GNP through interregional trade and export to sustainable development that enables the communities in the ASAL to support themselves at as good a standard of living as possible. The last part of this paper outlines a strategy to promote such sustainable development.     

A European irrigation map for spatially distributed agricultural modelling

We present a pan-European irrigation map based on regional European statistics, a European land use map and a global irrigation map. The map provides spatial information on the distribution of irrigated areas per crop type which allows determining irrigated areas at the level of spatial modelling units. The map is a requirement for a European scale assessment of the impacts of irrigated agriculture on water resources based on spatially distributed modelling of crop growth and water balance. The irrigation map was compiled in a two step procedure. First, irrigated areas were distributed to potentially irrigated crops at a regional level (European statistical regions NUTS3), combining Farm Structure Survey (FSS) data on irrigated area, crop-specific irrigated area for crops whenever available, and total crop area. Second, crop-specific irrigated area was distributed within each statistical region based on the crop distribution given in our land use map. A global map of irrigated areas with a 5′ resolution was used to further constrain the distribution within each NUTS3 based on the density of irrigated areas. The constrained distribution of irrigated areas as taken from statistics to a high resolution dataset enables us to estimate irrigated areas for various spatial entities, including administrative, natural and artificial units, providing a reasonable input scenario for large-scale distributed modelling applications. The dataset bridges a gap between global datasets and detailed regional data on the distribution of irrigated areas and provides information for various assessments and modelling applications.     

咸水灌溉对麦—玉两熟制农田土壤水稳性团聚体的影响

为探明咸水灌溉对麦—玉两熟轮作农田土壤团聚体的影响效应,在长期定位咸水灌溉试验(始于2006年)的基础上,研究了不同矿化度咸水连续灌溉第13~14年农田土壤盐分(EC e)及水稳性团聚体分布和稳定性指标的变化规律。试验设置5个灌溉水矿化度处理,分别为1,2,4,6,8 g/L。结果表明,0—40 cm土层土壤EC e随灌溉水矿化度增加而增大,4,6,8 g/L灌水处理与1 g/L处理间差异达显著水平。咸水灌溉改变土壤水稳性团聚体的粒级分布,灌溉水矿化度≤4 g/L时,0—40 cm土壤水稳性团聚体以大团聚体(>0.25 mm)为优势粒级,随灌溉水矿化度增加,大团聚体质量分数降低,微团聚体(0.053~0.25 mm)和粉+黏团聚体(<0.053 mm)质量分数增大,当灌溉水矿化度达到6 g/L时,粉+黏团聚体占比最大。咸水灌溉降低土壤水稳性团聚体的稳定性,随灌溉水矿化度的增加,土壤团聚体平均重量直径和几何平均直径减小,分形维数增大,但2 g/L与1 g/L灌水处理间无显著差异。在该研究灌溉制度下,≥4 g/L咸水灌溉显著增加土壤盐分,破坏土壤团粒结构,应谨慎使用。     

绿洲灌区小麦免耕秸秆还田对后作玉米产量性能指标的影响

产量性能是决定作物生长发育和产量形成的关键因素,研究前茬秸秆处理方式对后茬作物产量性能指标的影响,对于建立高效种植制度、优化栽培措施具有重要指导意义。2009—2012年,在甘肃河西绿洲灌区,通过田间定位试验,研究了前茬小麦不同秸秆还田和耕作措施(NTSS:25 cm高茬收割立茬免耕;NTS:25 cm高茬等量秸秆覆盖免耕;TIS:25 cm高茬等量秸秆翻耕;CT:不留茬翻耕对照)对后作玉米产量性能指标的影响,以期为优化试区玉米种植模式提供依据。结果表明,与CT相比,前茬小麦秸秆还田降低了后作玉米大喇叭口期之前的叶面积指数(LAI)与光合势(LAD),但增大了吐丝期之后的LAI与LAD,延缓了衰老,以NTSS、NTS延缓衰老作用突出;NTSS、NTS和TIS处理玉米全生育期的平均叶面积指数(MLAI)比CT分别提高12.8%、19.1%和7.0%,总光合势分别提高12.9%、18.6%和6.8%,免耕秸秆还田(NTSS和NTS)提高MLAI和LAD的效果最好。免耕秸秆还田提高了玉米全生育期的平均净同化率(MNAR),以NTSS提高作用明显,较CT高10.7%;但净同化率(NAR)表现为吐丝期之前增大,吐丝期之后降低。NTSS、NTS提高了后作玉米的籽粒产量,比CT分别高13.0%、15.6%,TIS比CT提高7.9%,NTS增产效应最大。不同秸秆还田及耕作方式下,玉米籽粒产量与MLAI、穗数(EN)、穗粒数(KNE)呈极显著正相关性,与收获指数(HI)呈显著正相关性,但与MNAR无显著相关性。MLAI、EN、KNE增加、HI提高是前茬小麦免耕秸秆还田提高后作玉米产量的主要原因。前茬秸秆免耕还田优化后茬玉米主要产量性能指标的效果最好。因此,前茬小麦25 cm秸秆覆盖免耕还田是绿洲灌区优化后作玉米产量性能指标及获得高产的可行栽培措施。     

河西灌区施钾对啤酒大麦产量及品质的影响

采用土壤养分状况系统研究法（ASI）,又称土壤养分状况综合评价法,研究河西灌区施钾对啤酒大麦产量、品质的影响,并确定甘肃河西灌区合理经济的施钾量。结果表明固定N、P及微量元素等养分后,与不施钾比较。施钾的啤酒大麦的产量增加279～1325kg／hm^2,增幅5．9％～27．9％,千粒重提高0．1～2．8g;钾水平在0～150kg／hm^2范围内,随着施钾量的增加,产量、经济效益、千粒重也随之增加,籽粒粗蛋白含量降低。说明施钾提高了啤酒大麦的产量与经济效益,改善并保证了啤酒大麦的品质,合理经济的钾用量为150kg／hm^2.     

太行山前平原井灌农田点尺度土壤水分动态随机模拟

基于中国科学院栾城农业生态系统试验站2002—2008年夏玉米生长期内的土壤水分观测数据及2000—2008年的降水(灌溉)、气象、生物数据,结合Laio土壤水分动态随机模型研究了太行山山前平原典型农田点尺度土壤水分动态的随机性。结果表明:研究区2000—2008年夏玉米生长期内日平均降水量为10.71 mm,降水频率0.290 9,其中小雨、暴雨的发生频率表现出明显上升趋势,中雨的发生频率呈显著下降趋势,大雨发生频率表现出微弱下降倾向;玉米生长期的土壤含水率6月份处于增长期,7月份达到生长期最高值并稳定在32.2%的水平,8月份以后下降并在9月份趋于稳定;Laio模型模拟得到土壤相对湿度的概率密度函数在曲线形状(峰值、峰值出现的位置、90%置信区间)与数字特征(中位数、均值、方差)方面与观测结果一致(α=0.05),模型在井灌区具有很好的适用性,且可以将灌溉作为一次降雨事件来处理;应用Laio模型得到在多年平均降雨条件下,32.1 mm的田间净灌溉量可以在50%水平上使夏玉米生长期内的土壤含水率保持在田间持水量的80%以上。     

秸秆还田对土壤养分及土壤微生物数量的影响

为探明秸秆还田后土壤养分及土壤微生物数量的变化情况,通过田间试验,研究了秸秆还田对小麦-玉米轮作体系中土壤养分及土壤微生物数量的影响。结果表明：秸秆还田可以增加土壤有机质含量,提高土壤养分库容,增加土壤中细菌、真菌及放线菌数量。50%秸秆还田、100%秸秆还田、150%秸秆还田条件下,土壤有机质增幅为0.02~0.04个百分点,土壤碱解氮、有效磷、速效钾分别增加6.64~9.00、3.37~4.07、10.33~19.00 mg/kg。不同秸秆还田量增加土壤微生物丰富度,细菌、真菌、放线菌增幅分别为2.2×10⁸个/g~3.1×10⁸个/g、0.5×10⁶个/g ~3.5×10⁶个/g、1.3×10⁷个/g ~1.9×10⁷个/g。但过量秸秆还田不利于农田生产力。     

灌溉农田土壤湿度的时空变化特征

为了探讨现代土壤墒情监测手段在业务监测实践中的应用方法,利用中国气象科学研究院固城生态与农业气象试验基地的业务和试验资料,对灌溉农田土壤湿度的时间变化特征和空间关系进行了分析。结果表明,灌溉农田的土壤湿度呈一年的周期性变化;浅层(0-50cm)土壤湿度时空波动显著,且各层的变化存在不一致性,60cm以下土层湿度时空变化很小,0-50cm土层的平均土壤湿度能较好地反映0-200cm土层的土壤水分状况,对土壤湿度的监测应集中在浅层50cm内,并需要逐层测量;浅层土壤湿度变异明显,大田中两点各层土壤湿度的相关性一般随两点距离增加而减小,单个测点的土壤湿度测值的代表性差,因此在自动土壤水分仪器布点时,要获得地段的平均土壤湿度信息,必须设置多个观测重复;表层5cm的土壤湿度变化剧烈而迅速,不能正确反映作物根系主要分布层的土壤水分状况,而表层10cm的土壤湿度与作物根系主要分布层的土壤湿度具有很好的联动性,可以较好地反映作物生长的环境土壤水分状况,因此,在应用微波遥感监测土壤墒情时,其对地表的探测深度需要达到10cm以上才能获得关于作物根系主要分布层的土壤水分状况信息,相应地,在土壤墒情微波遥感监测中,需要采用5GHz以下的频率。     

水地胡麻密肥高产栽培模型研究

在宁夏半干旱地区立地条件下,采用二次正交旋转组合回归设计,研究了种植密度和施肥水平对水地胡麻产量的影响。结果表明,参试的密肥因素对胡麻产量的作用由大到小依次为氮肥施用量、有机肥施用量、播种粒数、磷肥施用量,并通过模拟选优,确定了水地胡麻籽粒产量高于1 950.00 kg/hm2的优化农艺方案。