Landscape and habitat factors affecting cabot's tragopan Tragopan caboti occurrence in habitat fragments.

Cabot's tragopan Tragopan caboti is an endemic and endangered pheasant of the lower montane forests of southeastern China. The typical habitats of the tragopan have been seriously fragmented because of forest management for timber production and farmland reclamation in recent years. The effects of the fragment size and isolation on the distribution of the cabot's tragopan were studied in Wuyanling Natural Reserve. Thirty one habitat fragments (2.5-48.5 ha) surrounded by non-habitat sapling coniferous forests, in an intensively managed forested landscape, were surveyed over four seasons for the occurrence of cabot's tragopan. Five of the 31 fragments were occupied in all four seasons and nine were not occupied. Both landscape and habitat factors affected the occurrence of cabot's tragopan, with landscape factors having the greatest effect. Large and less isolated habitat fragments containing a larger amount of the tree Daphniphyllum macropodum were occupied significantly more often than small, isolated fragments. The appearance of cabot's tragopan in the habitat fragments was best explained by the size of the fragments, the distance to the nearest suitable habitat and the amount of macropdous daphniphyllum trees. Our results could be used to improve the management of the forests where Cabot's tragopan occurs in southeastern China.     

超级居群：连接生境多样性和生物多样性之桥

在达尔文（1859）看来,新物种只有通过竞争或者自然选择的方式淘汰原有物种才能进入由其他物种占据的生境并成功定居下来。然而,新物种进入生境并成功定居还有另外一个途径,那就是由于超级居群能在全球尺度上改变整个地球环境,从而能在原有环境中创造出一些全新的微环境来,正是这些全新的微环境使新物种避开了和原有定居者的剧烈竞争,很容易地进入了一直由其他物种占据的生境中并成功地定居下来。换句话说,超级居群导致了全球环境的分化,导致了全球尺度上的生境多样性。同时,超级居群通过环境的异质化为新物种准备好了很多全新的微环境,新物种在全新的微环境中的成功定居实现了新物种和原有定居者的长期共存。而这种长期共存导致了整个生物圈的生物多样性的增加。超级居群是地球上很多新环境的创造者,是生境多样性和生物多样性之间的桥梁,据此就能很容易地解释新物种为什么不时能和原有定居者共存甚至依赖于原有定居者,从而导致二者间剧烈竞争缺失的现象。     

长江安庆江段存在溯河洄游型和淡水定居型刀鲚实证研究

为了探究长江十年禁渔后安庆江段刀鲚的生境履历,利用X射线电子探针微区分析技术研究安庆江段不同类型长颌刀鲚(Coilia nasus)和短颌刀鲚的耳石Sr和Ca微化学特征。结果显示,根据耳石Sr/Ca值的变化值将安庆江段的短颌刀鲚分为2类,一类是其比值为一直小于3.0的低值,表明其纯淡水的生境履历;另一类是其比值不仅有小于3.0的低值区,还有大于3.0的高值区(小于7.0),表明其不仅有淡水的生境履历,还有高盐度的河口半咸水生境履历。长颌刀鲚的耳石Sr/Ca值均具有小于3.0的低值区和大于3.0 (甚至大于7.0)高值区的显著波动,表现为典型的淡水、河口半咸水及海水的溯河洄游型生境履历,Sr含量面分析图谱也可印证上述结果。本研究表明,长江安庆江段刀鲚群体组成较为复杂,同时存在溯河洄游型、淡水定居型短颌刀鲚和溯河洄游型长颌刀鲚3种生态表型个体。     

SALTIRSOIL: a simulation model for the mid to long‐term prediction of soil salinity in irrigated agriculture

The SALTIRSOIL model predicts soil salinity, sodicity and alkalinity in irrigated land using basic information on soil, climate, crop, irrigation management and water quality. It extends the concept of the WATSUIT model to include irrigation and crop management practices, advances in the calculation of evapotranspiration and new algorithms for the water stress coefficient and calculation of electrical conductivity. SALTIRSOIL calculates the soil water balance and soil solution concentration over the year. A second module, SALSOLCHEM, calculates the inorganic ion composition of the soil solution at equilibrium with soil calcite and gypsum at the soil’s CO₂ partial pressure. Results from comparing predicted and experimentally determined concentrations, observations and predictions of pH, alkalinity and calcium concentration in calcite‐saturated solutions agree to the second significant figure; in gypsum‐saturated solutions the standard difference between observations and predictions is <3% in absolute values. The algorithms in SALTIRSOIL have been verified and SALSOLCHEM validated for the reliable calculation of soil salinity, sodicity and alkalinity at water saturation in well‐drained irrigated lands. In simulations for horticultural crops in southeast Spain, soil solution concentration factors at water saturation, quotients of electrical conductivity (EC₂₅) at saturation to electrical conductivity in the irrigation water, and quotients of sodium adsorption ratio (SAR) are very similar to average measured values for the area.     

Bio-economic evaluation of farmers’ perceptions of viable farms in western Kenya

Arable land in western Kenya is under considerable pressure from increasing human population. Rural households depend on farming for at least part of their livelihood, and poverty rates are among the highest in Kenya. Land is often depleted of nutrients, and for most farmers, access to inputs and markets is poor. There is a need to identify options that are manageable within the context of the farmer’s resource base and the household’s objectives that could improve farm household well-being. In this study we integrated qualitative informal participatory approaches with quantitative mathematical programming and biophysical simulation modelling. Households in four sub-locations in Vihiga District were clustered and pilot cases identified. Meetings were held with farmers to elicit their perceptions of what their ideal farm would look like, and how its performance might compare with their own farm’s performance. With farmers’ help, a range of scenarios was analysed, relating to changes in current enterprise mixes, changes in current farm sizes, and changes in prices of staples foods and cash crops. A considerable mismatch was found between farmers’ estimates of their own farm’s performance, and what was actually produced. There seems to be a threshold in farm size of 0.4 ha, below which it is very difficult for households to satisfy their income and food security objectives. Even for larger farms whose households are largely dependent on agriculture, the importance of a cash crop in the system is critical. There is a crucial role for extension services in making farmers aware of the potential impacts on farm revenue of modest changes in their farm management systems. We are monitoring nine households in the district, whose farmers have made some changes to their system in an attempt to increase household income and enhance food security.     

Finding niches for whole-farm design models – contradictio in terminis?

Whole-farm design models quantitatively analyze the effects of a variety of potential changes at the farm system level. Science-driven technical information is confronted with value-driven objectives of farmers or other social groupings under explicit assumptions with respect to exogenous variables that are important drivers of agricultural systems (e.g., market conditions). Hence, farm design is an outcome of objective specification and the potential of a system. In recent publications, whole-farm design modelling has been proposed to enhance (farm) innovation processes. A number of operational modelling tools now offers the opportunity to assess the true potential of whole-farm design modelling to enhance innovation. In this paper, we demonstrate that it is not trivial to find niches for the application of goal-based farm models. Model outcomes appeared not to match questions of farm managers monitoring and learning from their own and other farmers’ practices. However, our research indicates that whole-farm design modelling possesses the capabilities to make a valuable contribution to reframing. Reframing is the phenomenon that people feel an urge to discuss and reconsider current objectives and perspectives on a problem. Reframing might take place in a situation (i) of mutually felt dependency between stakeholders, (ii) in which there is sufficient pressure and urgency for stakeholders to explore new problem definitions and make progress. Furthermore, our research suggests that the way the researcher enters a likely niche to introduce a model and/or his or her position in this niche may have significant implications for the potential of models to enhance an innovation process. Therefore, we hypothesize that the chances of capitalizing on modelling expertise are likely to be higher when researchers with such expertise are a logical and more or less permanent component of ongoing trajectories than when these researchers come from outside to purposefully search for a niche.     

An integrated modelling toolbox for water resources assessment and management in highland catchments: Model description

Water and land resource competition and environmental degradation pose difficult questions for resource managers. In particular, the ensuing trade-offs between economic, environmental, and social factors and their spatiotemporal variability must be considered when implementing management policies. This paper describes an integrated modelling toolbox that has been developed for highland catchments – specifically the Mae Chaem catchment in Northern Thailand. This toolbox contains models of crop growth, erosion and rainfall-runoff, as well as household decision and socioeconomic impact models. The approach described advances and complements previous approaches by: considering more complex interactions between land-use decisions and the hydrological cycle; modelling household decisions based on uncertain expectations; and assessing impacts of changes not only on flows and household income, but also on subsistence production and erosion. An example of the types of trade-offs and scenarios that can be assessed using the integrated modelling toolbox is also presented. This demonstrates that for the scenarios presented, the magnitude and direction of impacts simulated by the model is not dependent on climate. Further testing of the model is demonstrated in a companion paper. Overall, the plausibility of the model is shown.     

Using drainage systems for supplementary irrigation

The use of drainage systems for supplementary irrigation is widespread in The Netherlands. One of the operating policies is to raise the surface water level during the growing season in order to reduce drainage (water conservation) or to create subsurface irrigation. This type of operation is based on practical experience, which can be far from optimal.To obtain better founded operational water management rules a total soil water/surface water model was built. In a case study the effects of using the drainage system in a dual-purpose manner on the arable crop production were simulated with the model. Also, the operational rules for managing this type of dual-purpose drainage systems were derived.The average annual simulated increase in crop transpiration due to water conservation and water supply for subsurface irrigation are 6.0 and 5.4 mm.y^–1, respectively. This is equivalent with 520 × 10³ and 460 × 10³ Dfl.y^–1 for the pilot region (2 Dfl 1 US $). The corresponding investments and operational costs are 600 × 10³ Dfl and 9 × 10³ Dfl.y^–1 for water conservation and 3200 × 10³ Dfl and 128 × 10³ Dfl.y^–1 for subsurface irrigation. Hence, water conservation is economically very profitable, whereas subsurface irrigation is less attractive.Comparing the management according to the model with current practice in a water-board during 1983 and 1986 learned that benefits can increase with some 50 and 500 Dfl per ha per year, respectively.     

Simulation modelling of potato virus Y spread in relation to initial inoculum and vector activity

Potato virus Y(PVY) is a non-persistent virus that is transmitted by many aphid species and causes significant damage to potato production. We constructed a spatially-explicit model simulating PVY spread in a potato field and used it to investigate possible effects of transmission efficiency, initial inoculum levels, vector behavior, vector abundance, and timing of peak vector activity on PVY incidence at the end of a simulated growing season. Lower PVY incidence in planted seed resulted in lower virus infection at the end of the season. However, when populations of efficient PVY vectors were high, significant PVY spread occurred even when initial virus inoculum was low. Non-colonizing aphids were more important for PVY spread compared to colonizing aphids, particularly at high densities. An early-season peak in the numbers of noncolonizing aphids resulted in the highest number of infected plants in the end of the season, while mid-and late-season peaks caused relatively little virus spread. Our results highlight the importance of integrating different techniques to prevent the number of PVY-infected plants from exceeding economically acceptable levels instead of trying to control aphids within potato fields. Such management plans should be implemented very early in a growing season.     

Geomorphic estimates of the stability of a uranium mill tailings containment cover: Nabarlek,Northern Territory,Australia

The geomorphic stability of the cover (cap) over the pit of Nabarlek Uranium Mine in Arnhem Land, Northern Australia, is important because radon gas and other long-lived radio-nuclides arising from mill tailings must be contained for long periods. The primary agents of denudation in the region's seasonally wet tropical environment of low relief are rainwash, overland flow, rilling and gullying. Other agents of erosion are of less concern, although biogenic agents of erosion (e.g. termites and windthrow) may enhance fluvial activity. A combination of modelling, using the Universal Soil Loss Equation, and analogue estimates of denudation and thresholds of rilling and gullying from areas with similar geology, topography and climate are used to estimate the stability of the Nabarlek cover. Denudation rates are conservatively estimated at less than 100mm ky⁻¹. It is suggested that with some minor design modifications the cover will retain its integrity for several thousand years.