不利气象条件对果业生产的影响及果园管理建议

针对近年来不利气象条件频发情况,分析了不利气象条件对果业生产的影响,提出减轻不利气象条件对果树影响的建议和不利气象发生后果园的管理要点。     

不确定度评定方法在汽车事故再现中的应用

介绍了不确定度理论及其评定方法，结合车辆碰撞事故的具体特点，给出了基于能量守恒的车速计算表达式．通过选择适当的输入参数作为不确定因子，分别计算各分量等效速度标准不确定度．考虑不确定度累积和传播，得到车速输出结果的合成标准不确定度和展伸不确定度，以此检验事故再现结果的准确程度．通过具体事故案例的分析计算和计算机检验，验证该方法的适用性．     

Historical range of variability in eastern Cascades forests,Washington, USA

The historical range of variability (HRV) has been suggested as a coarse filter approach to maintain ecosystem sustainability and resiliency. The historical range of variability in forest age structure for the central eastern Cascade Range in Washington State, USA was developed from historical fire return intervals and the manner in which fire acted as both cyclic and stochastic processes. The proportions of seven forest structural stages calculated through these processes were applied to the area of each forest series within the central eastern Cascades landscape. Early successional forest stages were more common in high elevation forest than low elevation forest. The historical proportion of old growth and late successional forest varied from 38 to 63 percent of the forested landscape. These process-based estimates are consistent with those developed from forest structural information. HRV is a valuable planning tool for ecosystem conservation purposes, but must be applied to real landscapes with consideration of both temporal and spatial scale. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Some determinants of the spatio-temporal fire cycle in a mediterranean landscape (Corsica,France)

Based on recent needs to accurately understand fire regimes and post-fire vegetation resilience at a supra-level for carbon cycle studies, this article focusses on the coupled history of fire and vegetation pattern for 40 years on a fire-prone area in central Corsica (France). This area has been submitted since the beginning of the 20^th century to land abandonment and the remaining land management has been largely controlled by frequent fires. Our objectives were to rebuild vegetation and fire maps in order to determine the factors which have driven the spatial and temporal distribution of fires on the area, what were the feed backs on the vegetation dynamics, and the long-term consequences of this inter-relationship. The results show a stable but high frequency of small fires, coupled with forest expansion over the study period. The results particularly illustrate the spatial distribution of fires according to topography and vegetation, leading to a strong contrast between areas never burnt and areas which have been burnt up to 7 times. Fires, when occuring, affect on average 9 to 12% of the S, SE and SW facing slopes (compared to only 2 to 5% for the N facing slopes), spread recurrently over ridge tops, affect all the vegetation types but reburn preferentially shrublands and grasslands. As these fire-proning parameters have also been shown to decrease the regeneration capacity of forests, this study highlights the needs in spatial studies (both in terms of fire spread and vegetation dynamic) to accurately apprehend vegetation dynamic and functionning in fire-prone areas.This revised version was published online in May 2005 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

人为影响下古尔班通古特沙漠小尺度生态环境变化

随着沙漠中油气资源勘探开发、公路建设和重大工程相继实施 ,对生态环境的人为影响日益加深。本文以重大工程实验点为例 ,通过研究对比工程影响区内人工沙垄和自然沙垄的砂质新成土理化性状和植被群落特征 ,指出了沙漠生态环境在人为干扰下发生的一系列变化 ,以及受损生态环境在人们采取积极补救措施的情况下所具有的自然修复能力     

210国道榆林至陕蒙交界段建设的生态环境影响评价

在简要分析榆林至陕蒙交界段生态环境对公路及公路建设的影响的基础上 ,重点论述了公路建设在建设期和营运期对当地生态环境的影响 ,并对公路建设前后水土流失与土地沙化状况进行了预测 ,最后提出水土保持与防沙护路的方案。结论是 :只要把公路建设与生态环境建设相结合 ,重视生态环境的保护与建设 ,该公路建设和营运对生态环境的不利影响是很小的 ,而且 ,由于公路建设本身的需要所采取的防沙护路措施 ,会使公路沿线的生态环境更好     

Anthropogenic influences on potential fire spread in a pyrogenic ecosystem of Florida, USA

Fire has historically been an important ecological factor maintaining southeastern U.S. vegetation. Humans have altered natural fire regimes by fragmenting fuels, introducing exotic species, and suppressing fires. Little is known about how these alterations specifically affect spatial fire extent and pattern. We applied historic (1920 and 1943) and current (1990) GIS fuels maps and the FARSITE fire spread model to quantify the differences between historic and current fire spread distributions. We held all fire modeling variables (wind speed and direction, cloud cover, precipitation, humidity, air temperature, fuel moistures, ignition source and location) constant with exception of the fuel models representing different time periods. Model simulations suggest that fires during the early 1900's burned freely across the landscape, while current fires are much smaller, restricted by anthropogenic influences. Fire extent declined linearly with patch density, and there was a quadratic relationship between fire extent and percent landscape covered by anthropogenic features. We found that as little as 10 percent anthropogenic landcover caused a 50 percent decline in fire extent. Most landscapes (conservation or non-conservation areas) are now influenced by anthropogenic features which disrupt spatial fire behavior disproportionately to their actual size. These results suggest that land managers using fire to restore or maintain natural ecosystem function in pyrogenic systems will have to compensate for anthropogenic influences in their burn planning. This revised version was published online in May 2005 with corrections to the Cover Date. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Pocono mesic till barrens in retreat: topography,fire and forest contagion effects

The Pocono mesic till barrens (PMTB) are a unique assemblage of fire-maintained shrub communities that support numerous rare species. Historically these barrens covered a large area in the vicinity of Long Pond, Pennsylvania, USA. However, due largely to regional fire suppression instituted in the early 1960s, over 70% of the area covered by barrens succeeded to fire-intolerant forest that does not support the rare species. We investigated the influence of forest proximity on barrens succession across three geomorphic types during periods of high fire frequency and fire suppression, testing the hypothesis that forest processes such as seed rain, shading, and detrital enrichment of soils enhances barrens succession through a contagion effect. Evidence of a forest contagion effect should be shown by increased rates of barrens succession with increasing proximity to the nearest forest edge. In order to detect a forest contagion effect, barrens persistence and barrens succession were modeled in proximity zones of 0-50 m, 50-100 m, 100-200 m, and greater than 200 m from the nearest forest edge. We used existing GIS data layers for fire, geomorphology, and vegetation distribution in 1938, 1963, and 1992. The layers were modified and overlain using ArcView software to determine persistence and succession rates for each unique combination of layers in each proximity zone from 1938 to 1963 (pre-fire suppression) and 1963 to 1992 (post-fire suppression). ANCOVA results indicate that proximity to the nearest forest edge significantly affected barrens persistence rates in both time periods, but succession rates were significantly affected in 1938 to 1963 only. Twenty-eight percent of the 1938 barrens succeeded to forest by 1963; 56% of the 1963 barrens became forest by 1992. Results support previous findings that barrens persistence is enhanced by increased fire frequency, and that barrens persist longer where they overlie flat glacial till than on other geomorphology types.     

Characterizing historical and modern fire regimes in Michigan (USA): A landscape ecosystem approach

We studied the relationships of landscape ecosystems to historical and contemporary fire regimes across 4.3 million hectares in northern lower Michigan (USA). Changes in fire regimes were documented by comparing historical fire rotations in different landscape ecosystems to those occurring between 1985 and 2000. Previously published data and a synthesis of the literature were used to identify six forest-replacement fire regime categories with fire rotations ranging from very short (<100 years) to very long (>1,000 years). We derived spatially-explicit estimates of the susceptibility of landscape ecosystems to fire disturbance using Landtype Association maps as initial units of investigation. Each Landtype Association polygon was assigned to a fire regime category based on associations of ecological factors known to influence fire regimes. Spatial statistics were used to interpolate fire points recorded by the General Land Office. Historical fire rotations were determined by calculating the area burned for each category of fire regime and dividing this area by fifteen (years) to estimate area burned per annum. Modern fire rotations were estimated using data on fire location and size obtained from federal and state agencies. Landtype Associations networked into fire regime categories exhibited differences in both historical and modern fire rotations. Historical rotations varied by 23-fold across all fire rotation categories, and modern forest fire rotations by 13-fold. Modern fire rotations were an order of magnitude longer than historical rotations. The magnitude of these changes has important implications for forest health and understanding of ecological processes in most of the fire rotation categories that we identified.This revised version was published online in May 2005 with corrections to the Cover Date.