Estimates of minimum viable population sizes for vertebrates and factors influencing those estimates

Population size is a major determinant of extinction risk. However, controversy remains as to how large populations need to be to ensure persistence. It is generally believed that minimum viable population sizes (MVPs) would be highly specific, depending on the environmental and life history characteristics of the species. We used population viability analysis to estimate MVPs for 102 species. We define a minimum viable population size as one with a 99% probability of persistence for 40 generations. The models are comprehensive and include age-structure, catastrophes, demographic stochasticity, environmental stochasticity, and inbreeding depression. The mean and median estimates of MVP were 7316 and 5816 adults, respectively. This is slightly larger than, but in general agreement with, previous estimates of MVP. MVPs did not differ significantly among major taxa, or with latitude or trophic level, but were negatively correlated with population growth rate and positively correlated with the length of the study used to parameterize the model. A doubling of study duration increased the estimated MVP by approximately 67%. The increase in extinction risk is associated with greater temporal variation in population size for models built from longer data sets. Short-term studies consistently underestimate the true variances for demographic parameters in populations. Thus, the lack of long-term studies for endangered species leads to widespread underestimation of extinction risk. The results of our simulations suggest that conservation programs, for wild populations, need to be designed to conserve habitat capable of supporting approximately 7000 adult vertebrates in order to ensure long-term persistence.     

Dramatic decline in bat species richness in Singapore, with implications for Southeast Asia

Literature searches and recent surveys of the bat fauna of Singapore indicate that of the 24 species of Microchiroptera and six species of Megachiroptera documented for this small equatorial island just 15 and 5, respectively, are still present. These recorded declines in chiropteran species richness almost certainly understate the true losses as extensive land transformation/habitat loss (>95%) and biota loss occurred early in Singapore’s colonial history before comprehensive surveys of bats were made. In an effort to reconstruct the pre-settlement bat fauna, we inferred an upper bound of pre-settlement species richness using a checklist from a well-known bat assemblage in neighbouring Peninsular Malaysia, and a lower bound based on species common to Peninsular Malaysia, Borneo and Sumatra. The Singapore records were compared with these two species list predictions. Based on this analysis, we infer that between 60 and 72 species would have inhabited Singapore before 1819. We also estimate that between 33% (based on the confirmed inventory) and 72% of the species (based on the upper-bound estimate of species richness) are now locally extinct. For Microchiroptera the data suggest that the documented local extinction rate of 38% may project to between 69% and 75%. Forest-dependant bats are particularly affected and comprise a much lower proportion of the bat fauna than is seen in intact forest in Peninsular Malaysia. All hipposiderids and 40% of the documented rhinolophid taxa have been lost and almost half (6) of the surviving microchiropteran species are locally endangered. Projected local extinction rates for Megachiroptera raise the documented value (17%) to about 60%, with most of the survivors being widespread species known to forage in cultivated or secondary forest habitats or to commute long distances between fragmented resources. The dramatic decline in Singapore bat species richness and a concomitant change in chiropteran guild and trophic structure (Microchiroptera vs. Megachiroptera) reflect patterns of diversity change seen elsewhere in the region in response to loss of forest habitat. In Singapore, the decline in diversity (species richness and abundances) for both mega- and microbats may also relate to urbanisation and deliberate or accidental destruction of bats and their roost sites in a land that has one of the highest human population densities on the planet. Although these losses (actual and inferred) represent a microcosm of mainly local extinctions, a wider geographical extrapolation over the 21st century indicates that heavy deforestation in progress in Southeast Asia might be expected to lead to extinction of many bat taxa, with upper-bound estimates of regional species losses exceeding 40% and global extirpation anticipated for at least 23% of Southeast Asia’s bat fauna by 2100.     

Risks of decline and extinction of the endangered Amsterdam albatross and the projected impact of long-line fisheries

The Amsterdam albatross (Diomedea amsterdamensis) is one of the rarest bird species of world avifauna, consisting of a single population in the upland plateau of Amsterdam Island (SE Indian Ocean). All breeding birds of the population are today banded and a monitoring program involving mark-recapture procedures has been carried out continuously over the past 16 years. We present the first estimate of risk of decline for the Amsterdam albatross using a stochastic matrix population model, and evaluate the extent to which the measurement errors in demographic estimates may affect the baseline conservation assessment. We also estimate the potential effect that resumption of long-line fisheries in the vicinity of Amsterdam Island (one the alleged causes for its low numbers in the recent past) may have on the persistence of this population. Our results indicate that, in the absence of any impact of long-line fisheries, the Amsterdam albatross is unlikely to experience a decline larger than 20% of the current population abundance over the next 50 years. Our results point out the difficulty to assess with certainty the extinction risk of small populations despite the availability of long term data on their demography. They suggest that a very cautious approach should be taken for the preservation of small populations of long-lived species that cannot sustain any level of incidental by-catch. Any new long-line fishery resuming in the foraging range of the Amsterdam albatross, but especially close to Amsterdam Island, may rapidly put this species at risk of extinction.     

蓝莓米酒中总花色苷含量的测定

采用消光系数和pH示差2种方法对自制蓝莓米酒中总花色苷含量进行测定,测定值分别为16.82（±0.36）mg/100mL和17.48（±0.40）mg/100mL。2种方法均较为准确地反映了样品在溶液体系中的浓度,消光系数法所测值略小于pH示差法,后者操作难度比前者大。建议相关产品研发时可选用较为简便的消光系数法,最终产品选用较为准确的pH示差法。     

Does reduced MHC diversity decrease viability of vertebrate populations?

Loss of genetic variation may render populations more vulnerable to pathogens due to inbreeding depression and depletion of variation in genes responsible for immunity against parasites. Here we review the evidence for the significance of variation in genes of the Major Histocompatibility Complex (MHC) for conservation efforts. MHC molecules present pathogen-derived antigens to the effector cells of the immune system and thus trigger the adaptive immune response. Some MHC genes are the most variable functional genes in the vertebrate genome. Their variation is clearly of adaptive significance and there is considerable evidence that its maintenance is mainly due to balancing selection imposed by pathogens. However, while the evidence for selection shaping MHC variation on the historical timescale is compelling, a correlation between levels of MHC variation and variation at neutral loci is often observed, indicating that on a shorter timescale drift also substantially affects MHC, leading to depletion of MHC diversity. The evidence that the loss of MHC variation negatively affects population survival is so far equivocal and difficult to separate from effects of general inbreeding. Some species with depleted MHC variation seem to be particularly susceptible to infection, but other species thrive and expand following severe bottlenecks that have drastically limited their MHC variation. However, while the latter demonstrate that MHC variation is not always critical for population survival, these species may in fact represent rare examples of survival despite of the loss of MHC variation. There is clearly a compelling need for data that would disclose the possible consequences of MHC diversity for population viability. In particular, we need more data on the impact of MHC allelic richness on the abundance of parasites or prevalence of disease in populations, while controlling for the role of general inbreeding. Before such evidence accumulates, captive breeding programs and other conservation measures aimed at inbreeding avoidance should be favoured over those protecting only MHC variation, especially since inbreeding avoidance programs would usually conserve both types of genetic diversity simultaneously.     

Extirpation, colonization, and habitat dynamics of a keystone species along an urban gradient

Using 5 years of patch occupancy data for 384 habitat fragments, we evaluated population and habitat dynamics of the black-tailed prairie dog in urban habitat remnants in the rapidly developing landscape of Denver, CO, USA. Specifically, we evaluated the landscape factors, including fragment area, age, and connectivity, that characterize the habitat fragments most likely to be colonized by prairie dogs, as well as those experiencing local extinctions. In addition, we determined which patch types were most often removed by land development. Sites in proximity to colonies were more likely to be colonized by prairie dogs. Local extinctions were most common on isolated colonies, and older and more isolated colonies were more likely to be extirpated by human activity. In general, smaller and older habitat patches were at the highest risk of being lost to land development. Our results provide observations of dynamic changes to the distribution of a potential keystone species in an urban area, which can be used to inform island biogeographic and metapopulation models for wildlife persistence in developing landscapes. Although populations are currently in decline, most local extinctions are the direct result of human activity, and we suggest that prairie dogs in this area can persist with appropriate management.     

Relating tradable credits for biodiversity to sustainability criteria in a dynamic landscape

Tradable biodiversity credit systems provide flexible means to resolve conflicts between development and conservation land-use options for habitats occupied by threatened or endangered species. We describe an approach to incorporate the influence of habitat fragmentation into the conservation value of tradable credits. Habitat fragmentation decreases gene flow, increases rates of genetic drift and inbreeding, and increases probabilities of patch extinction. Importantly, tradable credit systems will change the level of fragmentation over time for small and/or declining populations. We apply landscape equivalency analysis (LEA), a generalizable, landscape-scale accounting system that assigns conservation value to habitat patches based on patch contributions to abundance and genetic variance at landscape scales. By evaluating habitat trades using two models that vary the relationship between dispersal behaviors and landscape patterns, we show that LEA provides a novel method for limiting access to habitat at the landscape-scale, recognizing that the appropriate amount of migration needed to supplement patch recruitment and to offset drift and inbreeding will vary as landscape pattern changes over time. We also found that decisions based on probabilities of persistence alone would ignore changes in migration, genetic drift, and patch extinction that result from habitat trades. The general principle of LEA is that habitat patches traded should make at least equivalent contributions to rates of recruitment and migration estimated at a landscape scale. Traditional approaches for assessing the “take” and “jeopardy” standards under the Endangered Species Act based on changes in abundance and probability of persistence may be inadequate to prevent trades that increase fragmentation.     

Effects of landscape urbanization on magpie occupancy dynamics in France

Responses of species to landscape modifications are generally documented through their distribution at a given time along an intensity gradient of land transformation. By focusing on patterns, we are limited to infer ecological processes occurring within a system and its response to environmental disturbances which can further change over time. Using diachronic datasets at the scale of France, we analyzed the spatial responses of the black-billed magpie, which has recently colonized cities, to landscape urbanization. This study applied recently developed statistical approaches incorporating detection uncertainty of the magpie, based on the capture-recapture statistical framework. We tested whether, and how, extinction and colonization mechanisms influenced variations of magpie occupancy from 2001 to 2005. In addition, we assessed the importance of the recent urbanization of the French countryside in determining population dynamics. Overall, our analysis proved that the proportion of urban areas and recent urbanization in France led to an increase in the probability of magpie occupancy. Unexpectedly, the species is concomitantly disappearing from the countryside, leading to a rapid change in the distribution of the species. This study stressed the importance of incorporating detection uncertainty in inference process about spatial dynamics. Overall, we show how useful it is to account for the dynamic evolution of the landscape in ecological studies.     

Response of snails and slugs to fragmentation of lowland forests in NW Germany

Habitat fragmentation is a major cause for species loss, but its effect on invertebrates with low active dispersal power, like terrestrial gastropods, has rarely been studied. Such species can not cross a hostile habitat matrix, for which the predictions of island theory, such as positive relations between species richness and patch size, should apply. In order to test this prediction, we studied gastropod species diversity by assessing gastropod assemblage characteristics from 35 sites in 19 fragments of deciduous old-growth forests in the Lower Rhine Embayment, Germany. Assemblages differed between larger (≥700 ha) and smaller forests (<400 ha), those of large forests held a higher percentage of forest species. Although α-diversity was similar between the two forest size classes, small forests often comprised matrix species, resulting in a higher β-diversity. Edge effects on the species richness of matrix species were noticeable up to 250 m into the forest. Hierarchical partitioning revealed that distance to disturbances (external edge, internal edges like roads) explained most assemblage variables, whereas forest size and woodland cover within a 1 km radius from the sites explained only a few assemblage variables. Densities of two forest-associated species, Discus rotundatus and Arion fuscus, decreased with forest size. Yet, forest size was positively correlated with richness of typical forest species and densities of Limax cinereoniger. The latter species seems to need forests of >1,000 ha, i.e., well above the size of most fragments. In conclusion, the prediction is valid only for forest species. The response to fragmentation is species specific and seems to depend on habitat specialization and macroclimatic conditions. Jean-Pierre Maelfait: Deceased.