A model of decision-making and information flows for information-intensive agriculture

This paper describes the development of a systems based model to characterise farmers’ decision-making process in information-intensive practices, and its evaluation in the context of Precision Agriculture (PA). A participative methodology was developed in which farm managers decomposed their process of decision-making into brief decision statements along with associated information requirements. The methodology was first developed on a university research farm in Denmark and further revised during testing on a number of research and commercial farms in Indiana, USA. Twenty-one decision-analysis factors were identified to characterise a farm manager’s decision-making process. Then, a general data flow diagram (DFD) was constructed that describes the information flows “from data to decision”. Illustrative examples of the model in the form of DFDs are presented for a strategic, a tactical and an operational decision. The model was validated for a range of decisions related to operations by three university farm managers and by five commercial farmers practicing PA for cereal, corn and soybean production in Denmark and in Indiana, USA.     

陕北地区坡耕地种植结构的可拓决策分析

在对陕北地区坡耕地现有的种植结构现状研究的基础上,以增加该地区农民人均收入为目标,应用可拓学理论对现有种植结构进行可拓分析,获得可拓策略,并应用到坡耕地种植中,以达到农民增收的目的. Abstract： Based on the resent research about the planting structure of slope farmland in northern Shaanxi,in order to increase the native's income,we use the theory of the extension methods to analyze the planting structure of slope farmland,so that we can get the extensive strategy,and put them into use for planting of slope farmland to make the native's income higher.     

Can epidemiology and economics make a meaningful contribution to national animal-disease control?

The general role of veterinary epidemiology and economics to national animal-disease control throughout the world is considered for the four main groupings of animal diseases: zoonotic, food-borne, endemic and epidemic diseases. This is done by considering how veterinary epidemiology and economics has contributed to priority setting (which diseases come first?), decision-making (for a given disease, which strategy is best?), and disease control implementation (how can optimal delivery and adoption of selected interventions best be achieved?). Within each of these categories, progress made and future opportunities are discussed. In addition, a review is made of how veterinary epidemiology and economics has been institutionalised. We conclude that veterinary epidemiology and economics holds a unique role in the development of national policies and strategies for improved animal health world-wide. However, we consider that we must capitalise more on the unique comparative advantage of the partnership between veterinarians and agricultural economists. We believe that much remains to be done to improve the "institutionalisation" of veterinary epidemiology and economics, and the adoption and impact of the products of our unique partnership, particularly in countries of the developing world.     

Agent-based land-use models: a review of applications

Agent-based modelling is an approach that has been receiving attention by the land use modelling community in recent years, mainly because it offers a way of incorporating the influence of human decision-making on land use in a mechanistic, formal, and spatially explicit way, taking into account social interaction, adaptation, and decision-making at different levels. Specific advantages of agent-based models include their ability to model individual decision-making entities and their interactions, to incorporate social processes and non-monetary influences on decision-making, and to dynamically link social and environmental processes. A number of such models are now beginning to appear—it is timely, therefore, to review the uses to which agent-based land use models have been put so far, and to discuss some of the relevant lessons learnt, also drawing on those from other areas of simulation modelling, in relation to future applications. In this paper, we review applications of agent-based land use models under the headings of (a) policy analysis and planning, (b) participatory modelling, (c) explaining spatial patterns of land use or settlement, (d) testing social science concepts and (e) explaining land use functions. The greatest use of such models so far has been by the research community as tools for organising knowledge from empirical studies, and for exploring theoretical aspects of particular systems. However, there is a need to demonstrate that such models are able to solve problems in the real world better than traditional modelling approaches. It is concluded that in terms of decision support, agent-based land-use models are probably more useful as research tools to develop an underlying knowledge base which can then be developed together with end-users into simple rules-of-thumb, rather than as operational decision support tools. This paper arises from research conducted as part of the UK Research Councils’ RELU Programme (award number RES-224-25-0102). RELU is funded jointly by the Economic and Social Research Council, the Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council and the Natural Environment Research Council, with additional funding from the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs and the Scottish Executive Environment and Rural Affairs Department.     

基于GIS的决策气象服务图形产品设计与实现

利用GIS软件和MSPGS组件生成重庆市决策气象服务图形产品地图模板,利用数据融合技术对气象数据进行转换,使其既能被GIS软件识别,又可以在Micaps软件中使用,并通过建立模型,登陆MSPGS的客户端进行任务的定制和自动执行,实现了决策气象服务图形产品的自动生成,有效节约了时间,增强了决策气象服务产品的时效性和针对性。     

基于AHP和FCE的择校决策模型研究

为了降低择校决策的不确定性,提供最佳的择校决策方案,笔者从定性和定量的角度,结合AHP、FCE和Expert Choice软件来构造判断矩阵和确定指标权重,最终得出最佳方案,使评价结果更具客观性和稳定性,并最后用于实证分析,取得良好效果。     

甘肃省草原灾害评价与预警决策信息系统研究

通过对甘肃省草原的基本概况、灾害类型及灾害成因进行分析,利用GIS的分析与决策方法,建立基于WebGIS的草原灾害预警决策信息系统,从而实现甘肃省草原灾害的信息化与可视化。     

奶牛养殖专家决策系统的开发与应用

基于当前奶牛养殖的特点，借助计算机互联网强大的功能，利用PAID3．0平台开发了奶牛养殖专家决策系统。目的是推广普及奶牛养殖的科技成果，为本地奶牛养殖企业提供方便可靠的技术决策和咨询服务，从而促进奶牛业的快速发展。     

陕西近5年决策气象质量及效益评估

采用决策气象服务质量评估模型和气象服务满意度指数CSIWS模型,对陕西近5年来的决策气象质量、决策气象服务满意度及气象防灾减灾效益进行了综合评估.结果表明,2010 ～2014年陕西决策气象服务综合质量评分总体稳定在7.5分以上,决策气象服务满意度指数稳定在93％以上,因气象灾害造成的死亡人数由上一个十年的年均109.4人降低至47.7人,气象灾害造成的经济损失占GDP的比例由上一个十年的年均3.8％下降至1.5％,说明陕西决策服务工作整体具有较高服务能力和水平,气象服务工作在服务地方经济发展和减轻灾害损失方面发挥了重要作用.研究结果可指导各地今后更好地开展决策气象服务工作,进而更好地发挥决策气象服务在防灾减灾中的效益.     

论村民自治中民主决策的保障

针对村民自治中民主决策落实情况,分析了村民自治民主决策的法律依据,提出强化认识、提高人员素质、加强制度建设等措施,以保障民主决策落到实处.