基于格网的GCM数据修订分析未来海南岛农业水热资源的变化特征

以海南岛为研究区域，选用5个大气环流模式（GCMs）1970−1999年的逐日输出数据和同期地面气象观测数据，使用空间插值降尺度到0.5°×0.5°格网。以格网单元为基础，应用系统误差修订（修正值法或比值法）和多模式集合平均方法（贝叶斯模型平均法BMA或等权重平均法EW），训练与验证GCMs输出值并进行综合修订。在此基础上，分析RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下，未来海南岛近期（2020−2059年）和远期（2060−2099年）农业水热资源，包括年平均气温、1月平均气温、≥10℃积温、≥20℃积温、年降水量、1月降水量和≥20℃界限温度生长期间降水量的变化特征。结果表明：GCMs输出值的系统误差和BMA权重系数在格网间存在较大的空间差异，且GCMs输出值低估逐日最高气温约3.55℃，高估逐日最低气温约1.19℃，逐日降水量仅为观测值的54.35%。基于格网的综合修订，可有效降低GCMs输出值在空间上的不确定性，BMA与EW的修订结果相似，均优于单一GCM模式。通过格网BMA综合修订后，最高气温、最低气温和降水量在验证期的相关系数r分别约提升0.10、0.07和0.06；均方根误差RMSE分别约降低2.38℃、1.01℃和1.01mm；较单一GCM相对观测值的偏差平均约减少3.25℃、1.13℃和25.67mm。未来海南岛农业热量资源在空间上主要表现为从中部向外围逐渐升高，高温主要分布在南部至西部沿海地区，年平均气温的增幅全岛较为接近，1月平均气温、≥10℃积温和≥20℃积温的增幅分别表现为由东向西、由北向南和由中部向外围递减。在时间上，RCP8.5情景下所有农业热量资源均为极显著增加且增温最快，RCP4.5情景为先增加后平缓，RCP2.6情景较为平缓，远期无显著增温。未来海南岛降水资源在空间上转为由东向西逐步递减的格局，南部和北部沿海地区降水变率增加，西部和中部降水变率减少，在时间上无显著变化趋势。随着未来海南岛气候变暖和降水格局的改变，农作物适宜种植面积扩大，会对农业生产带来巨大挑战，应提前布局，做好趋利避害。     

小麦条锈病流行程度趋势预测专家系统雏型

本文运用知识工程语言 M·1构造了一个用于小麦条锈病流行程度趋势预测的专家系统雏型。专家的知识用产生式规则来表示。知识库中的知识规则可相对独立,便于知识库的扩充和完善。     

GI PiCO2: Tissue Specific Monitoring For Improving Patient Outcomes

Improvements in human patient monitoring despite their development in animals, do not always find their way into veterinary clinical use due to financial constraints. Gastrointestinal intraluminal CO₂ partial pressure (Gip₁CO₂) monitoring, however, is not only proving very beneficial in human trauma and critical patient care but is also very likely to become relatively inexpensive. By providing information on the perfusion adequacy of a high risk, critically important tissue, the GI mucosa, GI P₁CO₂ monitoring offers an easily accesible indicator of the efficacy and adequacy of resuscitative interventions. The potential for decreasing morbidity and mortality is enormous. Therefore, the practicing veterinarian should become familiar with GI P₁CO₂ monitoring theory and technology so he or she can be better prepared to incorporate it into practice when in becomes available.     

STUDY ON THE EFFECT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON FOREST FIRE IN HEILONGJIANG PROVINCE

GENERALCoNDlTloNABoUTCLI-MATECHANGEINHElLoNGJIANGPRoVINCEDtlrlngthepasscdll)()}ears(l88l-l`)8(j)ors().tllctcndenc}'ofmcanairtc111pcraturcincrcasct\ithfluctuationcl11ergcdin\ariousrcglonsofHcllonViangproxincc.Airtcmpcra-turcinl98()s-rcachcdtl1emaxil11un1uithinthcpasscdll)()y'cars.Thisphcl1ol11enonaccordcd``iththctcndenc}'ofglobalclil11ate\"ar1ni11g.Thel11eanairtc111peralurcil1tl1creccl1tl()}car(l()8()-l()8`))incrcascdb}l).6"Cascom-pal-cd\`ltl1tl1atll1tl1clbrl11er3())'carsacc…     

应用积分GM(1,1)模型进行杉木炭疽病预测预报的研究

以积分生成代替传统的累加生成方法 ,并用双向差分建立积分GM (1,1)灰色预测模型进行杉木炭疽病预测预报的研究 ,结果表明积分GM (1,1)模型能较好地预测杉木炭疽病在三明市的发生     

WEPP模型中的CLIGEN与BPCDG应用对比研究

通过对遂宁组紫色土产流、产沙侵蚀的观测,运用迄今为止最为复杂的土壤侵蚀预测模型WEPP模型进行单次降雨侵蚀预测,与实测值比较,并对比通过气候生成器CLIGEN和断点生成器BPCDG的产生的气候参数对预测值的影响。通过分析比较结果,认为WEPP模型对遂宁组紫色土侵蚀过程预测合理,而且利用断点生成器BPCDG的预测结果要优于气候生成器CLIGEN的预测结果。     

THE CLIMATE CHANGE AND FORESTRY OF HEILONGJI ANG PROVINCE IN 1990''''S

INTRODUCTIONIntheworldoftoday,theglobalclimatechangeanditsinfluenceonecologyhavebe-comeaveryimportantproblem,towhichmanyscientists,governnentleadersandordinarypcoplepaycloseattentionI1-'].Inl979,theWorldClimateResearchProgram(WCP)waslaiddowninthefirstworldclimatemeeting.lnl99(),thesecondworldclimatemeetingwasconvcl1edinGencva,andalltl1eexpertsagreedthattheglobalwarmlngwillbeextremelyseriousdisasterthananynatUralcalamityever.Attl1eMectingof"WorldEnvironmentandDevelopment,"holdinBrazil…     

Predicting the spatial distribution of ground flora on large domains using a hierarchical Bayesian model

Accomodation of important sources of uncertainty in ecological models is essential to realistically predicting ecological processes. The purpose of this project is to develop a robust methodology for modeling natural processes on a landscape while accounting for the variability in a process by utilizing environmental and spatial random effects. A hierarchical Bayesian framework has allowed the simultaneous integration of these effects. This framework naturally assumes variables to be random and the posterior distribution of the model provides probabilistic information about the process. Two species in the genus Desmodium were used as examples to illustrate the utility of the model in Southeast Missouri, USA. In addition, two validation techniques were applied to evaluate the qualitative and quantitative characteristics of the predictions.This revised version was published online in May 2005 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

新亚欧大陆桥新疆段受损区段的灰色预测

在对新亚欧大陆桥新疆段受损区段、受损长度及受损频率和受损密度详尽分析的基础上，揭示了陆桥新疆段受损区段的时空分布规律。并依据灾害的时序分布特征，运用灰色原理和方法，根据受损区段数确立阈值和相应的年份序列，分别建立GM（1，1）模型，求出年份序列的序号响应式，并对实际值和理论预测结果进行了拟合检验，模型群的原点误差范围为0.198-1.314之间，平均误差为0.823-1.917，并同时预测了陆桥新疆段2001－2005年间可能的受损区段数。