Predicting and mitigating the net greenhouse gas emissions of crop rotations in Western Europe

Nitrous oxide, carbon dioxide and methane are the main biogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs) contributing to net greenhouse gas balance of agro-ecosystems. Evaluating the impact of agriculture on climate thus requires capacity to predict the net exchanges of these gases in a systemic approach, as related to environmental conditions and crop management. Here, we used experimental data sets from intensively monitored cropping systems in France and Germany to calibrate and evaluate the ability of the biophysical crop model CERES-EGC to simulate GHG exchanges at the plot-scale. The experiments involved major crop types (maize-wheat-barley-rapeseed) on loam and rendzina soils. The model was subsequently extrapolated to predict CO₂ and N₂O fluxes over entire crop rotations. Indirect emissions (IE) arising from the production of agricultural inputs and from use of farm machinery were also added to the final greenhouse gas balance. One experimental site (involving a maize-wheat-barley-mustard rotation on a loamy soil) was a net source of GHG with a net GHG balance of 670 kg CO₂-C eq ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹, of which half were due to IE and half to direct N₂O emissions. The other site (involving a rapeseed-wheat-barley rotation on a rendzina) was a net sink of GHG for −650 kg CO₂-C eq ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹, mainly due to high C returns to soil from crop residues. A selection of mitigation options were tested at one experimental site, of which straw return to soils emerged as the most efficient to reduce the net GHG balance of the crop rotation, with a 35% abatement. Halving the rate of N inputs only allowed a 27% reduction in net GHG balance. Removing the organic fertilizer application led to a substantial loss of C for the entire crop rotation that was not compensated by a significant decrease of N₂O emissions due to a lower N supply in the system. Agro-ecosystem modeling and scenario analysis may therefore contribute to design productive cropping systems with low GHG emissions.