农业信息：传统与现代的耦合

近年来，国家投资建设大量信息基础设施，以保证农业信息能更好的被农户采用。而现实中，农户并不通过网络、电视和报刊等现代信息手段获得农业信息，相反，基于地缘和血缘的熟人网络和以盈利为目的的商人成了农业信息传播的主要媒介。在这种传播方式下，农户的利益常遭侵害，农业科技难以广泛有效的传播，甚至一些假信息让农户失去了对“科技”的信赖。针对目前存在的种种问题，笔者兼顾现实与未来，提出了相关对策。     

The urbanization of wildlife management: Social science, conflict, and decision making

Increasing urbanization of rural landscapes has created new challenges for wildlife management. In addition to changes in the physical landscape, urbanization has also produced changes in the socio-cultural landscape. The greater distancing from direct interaction with wildlife in urbanized societies has led to the emergence of a culture whose meanings for wildlife are less grounded in the utilitarian/instrumental orientation of rural agrarian systems. Urban perspectives on wildlife are comprised of more highly individualized emotional/symbolic values. This shift creates two problems with respect to managing wildlife in an urbanizing landscape. First the increased diversity in values and meanings increases the likelihood for social conflicts regarding wildlife management while at the same time making socially acceptable resolutions more intractable. This in turn requires fundamental changes in decision-making paradigms and the research approaches used to inform decision making. Second, as remaining rural communities feel the pressures of urbanization, wildlife conflicts become conflicts not just over wildlife but conflict over larger socio-political concepts such as equity, tradition, private property rights, government control, power, and acceptable forms of knowledge. This paper examines the wildlife management implications of changes associated with increasing urbanization and employs two case studies to illustrate these issues. First a study of a controversy over urban deer management provides insights into how to map conflicting values and search for common ground in an urban culture with increasingly individualistic values for wildlife. Specifically, the analysis illustrates that common ground may, at times, be found even among people with conflicting value systems. The second case study examined a ranching community faced with predator reintroduction. This case study illustrates tensions that occur when the community of interest (i.e. a national public) is broader than the community of place in which the problem occurs. In this latter situation, the debate centers around more than just different views about the rights of animals. It also entailed the rights of individuals and communities to decide their future. The conclusion discusses the need for wildlife institutions to adapt their underlying decision making philosophy including the way science is integrated into decision making processes in light of the changes in social context caused by urbanization.     

A conceptual model of farmers' decision-making process for nitrogen fertilization and irrigation of durum wheat

With a 2 millions of tons production, France is the second country in the European Union to produce durum wheat. Durum wheat production requires high grain nitrogen concentration. Irrigation and nitrogen fertilization must be managed simultaneously to maximize grain yield and also avoid low protein concentration and environmental impacts. To help advisors and farmers to better manage together these two agricultural operations and to develop innovative managements, developing a biodecisional model is an interesting possibility. However, knowledge is still missing on how farmers already managed these operations and how these two operations are linked. We developed the conceptual model for the decision part of this computer model. We performed a survey of 28 farmers conducted over the five French production areas investigating a diversity of growing conditions to identify the set of possible constraints and farmers' decision rules. To analyze the survey, we first used a general inductive approach on individual cases and then built a conceptual model of the decision with a bottom-up approach. We identified four decision sequences for fertilization (N splitting, choice of N fertilizer, rate of application, fertilization triggering) and five for irrigation (irrigation period, anticipated number of irrigation cycles, irrigation cycles organization, irrigation triggering and irrigation cycle specificities). For each operation, the first three decision sequences refer to strategic decisions. The other decision sequences refer to tactical decisions. Coupling this model with a crop model could provide guidelines for managing durum wheat in the current climatic and economic changing context.     

基于DLMS/COSEM的嵌入式自动抄表集中器的设计与实现

环境污染责任保险因开展经验及历史数据不足致费率难以合理厘定，引入模糊信息粒及综合评价理论，相对传统方法，更能实现费率厘定的公平合理，保障各方利益.本文以化学原料及化学制品制造业为研究对象，首先运用模糊信息粒理论处理历史数据，克服数据模糊不确定性，得出第三者赔偿额的模糊信息粒X~；其次运用传统精算定价方法得出行业基准费率的模糊信息粒p~；最后运用模糊综合评价二级评价理论，综合追溯期、企业规模等影响因素，得出投保企业风险综合评价集B~，以此修正基准费率.     

Using indicators to assess the environmental impacts of wine growing activity: The INDIGO® method

Environmental assessment methods are needed by agronomists working on the enhancement of cropping systems to meet the demand for more sustainable farming practices. A growing number of operational methods based on a set of indicators have been designed, more for arable crops and livestock than for perennial crops like viticulture. Among them, the INDIGO^® method, originally developed for arable crops, offers a compromise between feasibility and predictive quality. Here we present a modified and expanded version of INDIGO^® for viticulture. The development of new indicators specific to viticulture and the adaptation of existing ones followed a five step approach: (i) preliminary definition of the objectives and identification of the end-users, (ii) construction of the indicator, (iii) selection of a reference value, (iv) sensitivity analysis and (v) validation. Stakeholders from professional institutions and winegrower organizations were closely associated with step (i) to define the framework and step (ii) to supply technical databases. We designed INDIGO^® indicators with all available scientific and expert knowledge which was aggregated into expert systems associating fuzzy subsets or, when possible, quantitative equations.Four indicators; pesticides, nitrogen, energy and soil organic matter, were directly adapted from the initial INDIGO^® method, whereas soil cover and frost protection management were new indicators. Potentialities of their use are highlighted by examples of implementation on different scales and for various purposes.     

Four years validation of decision support optimising herbicide dose in cereals under Spanish conditions

The Danish decision support system Crop Protection Online (CPO) optimises herbicide weed control. CPO recommends specific herbicide solutions to achieve a required level of control. The aim is to apply herbicides as little as possible but as much as necessary. CPOWeeds is a version of CPO adjusted to conditions in North-eastern Spain. The predicted efficacies and the yield obtained with CPOWeeds were validated in winter cereal field trials from 2010 to 2013. All CPOWeeds treatments were related to the efficacies obtained with standard herbicide treatments decided upon by local advisors. The predictions from CPOWeeds were compared to the actually achieved efficacies in the field trials for the nine weed species at different developmental stages and for 84.2% of the comparisons the obtained efficacies were equal to or higher than predicted. The average difference between predicted and observed efficacies was 2.35 percentage points. Yield was measured in three trials and the recommendations from CPOWeeds were maintaining yield. There were two situations where CPOWeeds were performing suboptimal. One is in the early weed growth stages, as the model is not yet prepared to account for water stress on root action herbicides applied at 10-11 BBCH. The second situation was in fields with a prior unidentified population of resistant Alopecurus myosuroides. For key species in winter cereals in Spain, such as Avena sterilis, Lolium rigidum and Papaver rhoeas, CPOWeeds achieved a satisfactory control level. It was concluded that the use of CPOWeeds allowed optimisation of the herbicide application with a very high robustness. The recommendations were satisfactorily for the conditions of the Northeast of Spain and have the potential to decrease the amount of applied herbicides by at least 30%. Therefore, it can be an important tool in Integrated Weed Management.     

多功能自动标签机机构设计与优化

标签机是目前工业贴标应用最广泛的机器,其自动贴标签机贴标的效率与质量,较人工有着无法比拟的优势,所以对其设计和优化有着重大的工业革命性意义。本课题就现有的自动标签机的出标机构,传送机构等机构进行了优化,如何实现自动标签机的不间歇运动和多功能贴标等功能做出了论述。     

未确知有理数在农业投资方案决策中的应用

利用未确知有理数方法进行农业投资方案决策,在理论上可行,所得结果是可信的。该方法可用于多层次决策,步骤简单,有效。     

THE OPTIMAL DECISTON OF ECONOMICAL DEVELOPMENT BY MARKOVIAN DECISION PROGRAMMING

This paper studies the tactics choice and its improvement in the development of economy by means of Markovian Decision Programming. An optimal decision and the maximum expected revenue can be obtained. The . paper also presents the procedures and formulas of numerical evaluation.