数值模型结构不确定性对模拟结果的影响分析

以内蒙古鄂托克旗为例,基于GMS中的MODFLOW模块构建了地下水流数值模拟模型,分析了模型结构(含水层厚度、参数分区)与模型参数不确定性因素对模拟结果的影响.研究结果表明:含水层不确定情景(含水层下边界概化为隔水底板平均值870 m)与实际情况水头差值绝对值的累计和最大为701 m,对模拟结果起了主控作用;当含水层下边界概化为910,940 m时,累计和分别增加为1 013,1 593 m;与仅考虑单个不确定性因素相比,同时考虑模型参数与含水层不确定情景累计和最大为738 m,同时考虑参数分区与含水层不确定情景累计和最大为791 m.因此,在构建地下水流数值模拟模型时,应优先考虑含水层空间结构概化的合理程度,同时考虑多个不确定性因素对模拟结果的综合影响,使地下水数值模拟模型能更精确地反映真实的地下水流状况.     

Spatiotemporal patterns of mountain whitefish (Prosopium williamsoni) in response to a restoration of longitudinal connectivity

To examine the role of longitudinal connectivity on the spatial and temporal dynamics of mountain whitefish (Prosopium williamsoni), we quantified movement and population dynamics following installation of the Landsburg Dam fishway, Cedar River, WA, USA. Mountain whitefish is widely distributed, poorly studied and not the focus of restoration. Before the fishway, mountain whitefish were not observed above the dam. Here, we focus on snorkel counts collected at reach and mesohabitat (e.g. pools) scales over 11 summers on the 20‐km above‐dam segment following restoration. A camera within the ladder provided number, size and movement timing, thereby informing on behaviour and recolonisation. Segment‐scale abundance increased following fish passage reaching an asymptote in 7 years, and mountain whitefish were detected throughout the main stem in 10 years. Annual movement through the ladder increased over time and was positively correlated with instream abundance and discharge, but negatively correlated with water temperature. About 60% of fish movements occurred in spring and early summer, potentially for foraging opportunities. Reach‐scale abundance peaked between 7 and 10 km from the dam; deep, cool (~10.6 to 11.6°C) conditions characterised these reaches. At the mesohabitat scale, mountain whitefish detection increased with depth and velocity after accounting for distance from the dam. Our results show how restoring longitudinal connectivity allowed this nontarget species to colonise newly available habitat. Their response supports the critical roles of longitudinal connectivity and environmental conditions, that manifest at different spatial scales, in dictating how freshwater fish respond to habitat disturbance.     

Boundary-fitted grid in landscape modeling

Landscape modeling requires the delineation of system boundaries and interior features. Quite often, these components are complex and difficult to accurately represent. A rectangular grid is used to represent the study and adjacent non-study areas in most cases. When the non-study area occupies a large portion of the grid, computer memory is wasted, and computational time increases. An elliptical grid generator for non-orthogonal curvilinear coordinates is used to generate a boundary-fitted grid for a landscape model. In a boundary-fitted grid coordinate system, one coordinate axis follows the landscape domain boundary and is non-orthogonal to the second axis. The boundary-fitted grid uses elliptic partial differential equations to distribute grid points inside the landscape domain. Although the boundary-fitted grid follows the domain boundary, the grid pattern and point allocation remain structured. Thus, a landscape model can use a boundary-fitted grid without changing the model’s data structure or the computational scheme. In this study, a boundary-fitted grid and a raster-based grid were applied to the Everglades Landscape Fire Model. Use of the boundary-fitted grid decreased model simulation time by about one fifth and computer storage by 58% relative to the raster-based grid. Also, the linear characteristics of interior geographical features such as rivers and airboat trails were preserved by the boundary-fitted grid, but not by the raster-based grid. This preservation provided a more reasonable base map for simulating ecological processes, such as fire across heterogenous landscapes.     

Some Comments on Gerechte Designs

In a companion paper we derived the correct analysis for gerechte designs with uncorrected errors. Here we show that this correct analysis cannot be justified by the usual randomization argument. However, when the regions are rectangular there is a randomization procedure which validates an analysis with three separate error terms. We also outline other developments in design and analysis that may be more satisfactory.     

杉木扁长蝽若虫空间分布型的研究

本文采用聚集度指标检验法、回归分析法研究了杉木扁长蝽若虫的空间分布型。结果表明：在不同林地、不同虫口密度情况下，均呈聚集分布。若虫的聚集与栖息生境有直接关系。     

Spatial distribution of Aspergillus flavus and its toxigenic strains on commercial cottonseed from south Texas and its relationship to aflatoxin contamination

The structure of Aspergillus flavus communities associated with south Texas cottonseed was determined by analysing samples from 178 truckloads of commercial cottonseed from 35 gins, extending from Fort Bend County in the north to the Rio Grande Valley in the south, from September 1999 to October 2001. The number of colony-forming units (CFU) of A. flavus on the cottonseed, and the percentage of S strain (%S) were both correlated with aflatoxin contamination of cottonseed. The number of CFU differed between both regions and seasons, while %S differed only between regions. Comparison of maps of CFU and %S revealed that CFU shows a higher variation across years, while %S shows higher spatial variation. The Rio Grande Valley had significantly lower CFU and %S strain than the Coastal Bend and Upper Coast regions. Cottonseed produced in 1999 had significantly more A. flavus than that produced in either 2000 or 2001. Identification of factors dictating geographical variation in S-strain incidence may provide insights that will lead to improved aflatoxin management.     

七星瓢虫幼虫空间分布型及抽样技术研究

采用颍次分布X~2检验、Iwao平均拥挤度m~*=a+βx和Taylor幂法则S~2=am~b等8种方法,分析了七块麦田中七星瓢虫幼虫的空间分布型,认为其分布型为负二项分布,且聚集的原因是由于个体之间存在着相互吸引,并确定了代表性较强的棋盘式抽样技术,最佳抽样数量为:Q=28.7088/+0.7552。     

Change in spatial characteristics of forest openings in the Klamath Mountains of northwestern California,USA

Change in the spatial characteristics of forest openings was investigated in three forested watersheds in north-western Siskiyou County, California totalling approximately 24,600 hectares. Watersheds with minimal human disturbance were chosen for study. However, fire suppression has been pervasive throughout. Characteristics of forest openings (area, perimeter, distance between neighboring openings) were measured on aerial photographs taken 41 years apart. An index of regional form was determined for the landscape. Shape complexity for each opening was calculated using two indices based upon fractals. Significant differences were found using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov two-sample test between the perimeters, areas, distance from sample point to nearest opening, and distance between neighboring openings. The perimeters and areas became smaller, and the distances from the sample point to the nearest opening and between neighboring openings became greater over the 41 years between aerial photo sets. The estimated area occupied by openings decreased from 25.8 % to 15.6 % of the study area. No significant difference was found in the shape of the openings except as the shape indices were influenced by changes in size of the openings.This article was written and prepared by U.S. Government employees on official time, and it is therefore in the public domain and not subject to copyright.     

基于不同尺度的干旱区城市景观生态研究--以陕西榆林市为例

从区域与城市两个尺度水平 ,对毛乌素沙漠南缘的榆林市城市景观进行研究认为 :在大尺度水平上 ,区域景观生态特征对城市景观特征具有一定的控制作用 ,而城市景观强大的功能流对区域景观产生干扰作用。城市景观的空间扩展与演化 ,既受区域景观特征的影响 ,也是区域景观演化的一个有机构成部分 ;在小尺度空间上 ,景观功能区、景观斑块与廊道的格局与功能 ,对城市景观格局动态以及维持城市景观多样的生态功能具有重要意义。在不同的利益追求下形成的景观文化 ,将深刻地影响到区域与城市景观演化的方向与过程。