浅谈几种概率分布之间的相互关系

本文简述了几种常用的概率分布之间的相互关系     

河流水质污染中的反问题（Ⅱ）

继续讨论了一类半线性抛物偏微分方程的反问题，在一定条件下，得到了问题的解的存在性，唯一性，并给出了近似解法。     

线性红利界下带干扰风险模型的破产概率

考虑到保险公司在实际经营中收益所具有的不确定性和分红策略，建立一类具有线性红利界和带随机扰动的双复合Poisson风险模型，利用鞅方法给出模型关于破产概率的一个定理及上界．     

美国油气管道基本失效概率评估方法及启示

为充分利用油气管道历史失效数据,减少失效概率评估过程中的主观性,提出油气管道基本失效概率的概念及评估方法。对美国管道及危险物品安全管理局数据库的油气管道里程数据、事故数据及失效因素数据进行全面分析,采用基于事故统计的方法评估油气管道基本失效概率。结果表明:美国危险液体管道、输气集气管道、配气管道发生一般事故的基本失效概率分别为1.29次/(10^3 km·a)、2.17次/(10^4 km·a)及4.08次/(10^5 km·a),发生较大事故的基本失效概率分别为4.58次/(10^4 km·a)、1.41次/(10^4 km·a)及2.38次/(10^5 km·a),发生重大事故的基本失效概率分别为9.09次/(10^6 km·a)、9.79次/(10^6 km·a)及1.11次/(10^5 km·a)。美国基本失效概率可作为油气管道失效概率评估的基准线,也可作为风险可接受标准的依据,但不能直接应用于中国管道风险评价,需对其进行修正,建立适用于中国管道的失效数据库。     

带常利率和相依结构更新风险模型的破产概率

研究了一类具有常利率及相依结构的Sparre Andersen模型, 模型中假设理赔间隔时间决定下一次理赔额的分布情况. 对一般分布情形, 利用推广后的调节系数方程与递归更新技巧, 得到了此模型的最终破产概率上界的估计. 最后以理赔额和理赔间隔时间都服从指数分布的情况下的实例分析来说明该模型的有效性.     

Predicting Acceptability of Jaguars and Pumas in the Atlantic Forest,Brazil

Jaguars and pumas are threatened species in Brazil’s Atlantic Forest, especially at the borders of protected areas. This article assessed the influence of emotions, attitudes, existence value, and agency credibility on acceptability of big cats among rural residents living adjacent to two protected areas in this forest. Data from self-administrated questionnaires (n = 326) indicated those with positive attitudes toward big cats (β = .28, p < .001), those who valued the existence of big cats (β = .14, p < .05), those who would feel sorrow if big cats disappeared (β = .21, p < .001), and those who considered the managing agency as credible (β = .16, p = .002) were more accepting of big cats. The model provided theoretical and practical insights into large carnivore conservation. For example, given the significance of agency credibility, a positive relationship between park authorities and residents is crucial for big cat conservation.     

Parsimonious Covering Probability Model for Turbogenerator Vibration Faulty Diagnosis

The turbogenerator vibration faults have the character of variety. Many faults often occur synchronously. This paper introduces a diagnosing model based on parsimonious covering theory and probability. A model for turtogenerator's fault diagnosis is proposed. The availability of this method is proved by two fault diagnosis examples of turbogenerator. The results show that the model proposed can be used for multi_fault diagnosis together. It may make up shortage for some of expert systems and neural networks in some aspect. From the practice,this model has higher reliability and practicability.     

A reservoir operational rule for irrigation in Japan

Operation of a reservoir for irrigation is more complicated and difficult than that for domestic water supply in Japan, owing to the fact that a requirement for irrigation takes various value depending upon effective rainfall on farmland, soil condition, and so on. Therefore, the reservoirs should be operated to correspond with demand, inflow, and unknown droughts occurring in the future. However, the reservoirs have been operated under operators' experiences without formal operational rules, because any effective theories or methods have been neither developed nor used in Japan at present.On operation of the reservoirs, there are two targets — promotion of effective release and restriction of release in preparation for droughts — conflicting with each other. It is useful to set up the operation with Required Storage for Drought Curve (RSDC) Method to achieve reasonable operation harmonizing those two targets. RSDC is composed with Target Line (TL) and Restrictive Release Lines (RRLs). TL is a target storage level to guarantee that storage will never empty until the end of the irrigation period under a certain probability. If actual storage remains above TL, effective release will be promoted. RRLs are storage levels pointing out the basis of restricting release. If actual storage falls below TL, release will be restrained in accordance with RRLs in order to get over uncertain droughts occurring in the future.In this paper, the theory of RSDC is described and the effectiveness of Rule Curve (RC) based on RSDC Method is illustrated by simulation on a single reservoir for irrigation.     

大坝安全风险评估初探

根据风险理论在其它领域的应用实践，以及大坝安全风险管理在国外的应用经验，将大坝安全风险评估的原理、实施步骤等进行了阐述，探讨了大坝风险因素、失事树分析法及事件概率计算方法等诸多关键问题，并通过算例对文中所探讨的问题进行了较为明确的应用与说明。     

降水对华北主要粮食作物灌溉需求影响特征

探明华北地区作物灌溉需求规律及主控因素是合理制定水资源规划,缓解该区地下水超采的重要依据。本文基于华北60个气象站近50年(1971—2020年)逐日气象资料,采用FAO推荐的Penman-Monteith公式计算作物需水量,并分析降水对主要粮食作物(冬小麦和夏玉米)灌溉需求时空特征的影响。结果表明：在降水丰水年(25%),冬小麦作物灌溉需求指数I_RI以0.50～0.75区间的高度灌溉需求分布区为主,夏玉米则以0.25～0.50区间的中度灌溉需求分布区为主,分布面积比率分别为研究区的92%、86%;在平水年(50%),冬小麦I_RI以大于0.75的极高灌溉需求分布区为主,分布面积比率占56%,夏玉米仍以0.25～0.50的中度灌溉需求分布区为主,但分布面积比率扩大至100%;在枯水年(75%),冬小麦极高灌溉需求分布面积比率增大至97%,夏玉米则以0.50～0.75的高度灌溉需求分布区为主。降水量是影响I_RI的主控因素,随降水量的增大,不同区位I_RI均呈直线下降趋势,但对降水量变化的敏感性存在较大差异...