基于格网的GCM数据修订分析未来海南岛农业水热资源的变化特征

以海南岛为研究区域，选用5个大气环流模式（GCMs）1970−1999年的逐日输出数据和同期地面气象观测数据，使用空间插值降尺度到0.5°×0.5°格网。以格网单元为基础，应用系统误差修订（修正值法或比值法）和多模式集合平均方法（贝叶斯模型平均法BMA或等权重平均法EW），训练与验证GCMs输出值并进行综合修订。在此基础上，分析RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下，未来海南岛近期（2020−2059年）和远期（2060−2099年）农业水热资源，包括年平均气温、1月平均气温、≥10℃积温、≥20℃积温、年降水量、1月降水量和≥20℃界限温度生长期间降水量的变化特征。结果表明：GCMs输出值的系统误差和BMA权重系数在格网间存在较大的空间差异，且GCMs输出值低估逐日最高气温约3.55℃，高估逐日最低气温约1.19℃，逐日降水量仅为观测值的54.35%。基于格网的综合修订，可有效降低GCMs输出值在空间上的不确定性，BMA与EW的修订结果相似，均优于单一GCM模式。通过格网BMA综合修订后，最高气温、最低气温和降水量在验证期的相关系数r分别约提升0.10、0.07和0.06；均方根误差RMSE分别约降低2.38℃、1.01℃和1.01mm；较单一GCM相对观测值的偏差平均约减少3.25℃、1.13℃和25.67mm。未来海南岛农业热量资源在空间上主要表现为从中部向外围逐渐升高，高温主要分布在南部至西部沿海地区，年平均气温的增幅全岛较为接近，1月平均气温、≥10℃积温和≥20℃积温的增幅分别表现为由东向西、由北向南和由中部向外围递减。在时间上，RCP8.5情景下所有农业热量资源均为极显著增加且增温最快，RCP4.5情景为先增加后平缓，RCP2.6情景较为平缓，远期无显著增温。未来海南岛降水资源在空间上转为由东向西逐步递减的格局，南部和北部沿海地区降水变率增加，西部和中部降水变率减少，在时间上无显著变化趋势。随着未来海南岛气候变暖和降水格局的改变，农作物适宜种植面积扩大，会对农业生产带来巨大挑战，应提前布局，做好趋利避害。     

气候变化情景下流苏香竹潜在分布区预测

流苏香竹（Chimonocalamus fimbriatus）是云南特有珍稀竹种，主要分布于云南西南部。文章以野外调查获取的流苏香竹分布信息为主，运用最大熵模型（MaxEnt）同时结合地理信息系统（ArcGIS），基于19个气候因子，预测其在当前及未来气候变化情景下的潜在分布区。结果表明：当前流苏香竹的高适生区和中适生区主要分布于德宏州、保山市和临沧市等地，除迪庆州、丽江市和昭通市外，云南其他区域均有低适生区零星分布。在未来2050s和2070s的2个时间段，基于2种不同共享社会经济路径（SSP1-2.6和SSP5-8.5），流苏香竹的高适生区面积呈减少的趋势，尤其是SSP5-8.5路径下，高适生区面积仅为当前的12.51%（2050s）和18.63%（2070s）；中、低适生区在SSP1-2.6路径下，显著扩张（2050s）或略微扩张（2070s），在SSP5-8.5路径下，则大幅收缩。流苏香竹野外实际分布区及其潜在分布区均以斑块状为主，可能与云南特殊的地形、地貌有关。影响流苏香竹分布的主导气候因子为最湿月份降水量、最暖月份最高温度、最干季度降水量和平均气温日较差。流苏香竹对气候变化比较敏感，根据其野外分布状况，建议以就地保护为主、迁地保护为辅，在其潜在适生区内适当引种栽培。     

Determination of critical nitrogen dilution curve based on leaf area index for winter wheat in the Guanzhong Plain,Northwest China

Excessive use of nitrogen(N) fertilizers in agricultural systems increases the cost of production and risk of environmental pollution. Therefore, determination of optimum N requirements for plant growth is necessary. Previous studies mostly established critical N dilution curves based on aboveground dry matter(DM) or leaf dry matter(LDM) and stem dry matter(SDM), to diagnose the N nutrition status of the whole plant. As these methods are time consuming, we investigated the more rapidly determined leaf area index(LAI) method to establish the critical nitrogen(N_c) dilution curve, and the curve was used to diagnose plant N status for winter wheat in Guanzhong Plain in Northwest China. Field experiments were conducted using four N fertilization levels(0, 105, 210 and 315 kg ha-1) applied to six wheat cultivars in the 2013–2014 and 2014–2015 growing seasons. LAI, DM, plant N concentration(PNC) and grain yield were determined. Data points from four cultivars were used for establishing the N_c curve and data points from the remaining two cultivars were used for validating the curve. The N_c dilution curve was validated for N-limiting and non-N-limiting growth conditions and there was good agreement between estimated and observed values. The N nutrition index(NNI) ranged from 0.41 to 1.25 and the accumulated plant N deficit(N_(and)) ranged from 60.38 to –17.92 kg ha~(-1) during the growing season. The relative grain yield was significantly affected by NNI and was adequately described with a parabolic function. The N_c curve based on LAI can be adopted as an alternative and more rapid approach to diagnose plant N status to support N fertilization decisions during the vegetative growth of winter wheat in Guanzhong Plain in Northwest China.     

蔬菜幼苗叶面积快速测定方法筛选与优化

为得到一种快速且准确测定蔬菜幼苗叶面积的方法,以番茄幼苗为试材,以方格法为对照,研究扫描分析法、叶面积仪法、打孔称重法测定叶面积的准确性、精确性与测定速度,然后采用黄瓜、辣椒叶片及纸片的面积对测定结果进行验证,最后基于不同扫描分辨率对筛选出的方法进行优化。结果表明,相比叶面积仪法和打孔称重法,扫描分析法测定结果更接近真实值,且精度更高,用时更短。扫描分析法不同分辨率下测定结果无显著差异,且扫描分辨率越低所需测定时间越短。扫描分辨率50 dpi下的扫描分析法可作为一种快速准确测定蔬菜幼苗叶面积的方法。     

黑龙江省国有林区脆弱异质性家庭对停伐政策的态度及影响因素研究

基于2016年黑龙江省重点国有林区348户家庭的微观调查数据,实证分析黑龙江省国有林区脆弱异质性家庭对停伐政策的态度及影响因素。采用因子分析与综合评价法将348户职工家庭分为脆弱性家庭和非脆弱性家庭,描述性分析2组样本家庭对停伐政策的态度及认知情况,利用多元有序logit模型分析脆弱性与非脆弱性家庭对停伐政策态度的影响因素。结果表明:非脆弱性家庭对停伐政策的了解程度及执行情况的评价均高于脆弱性家庭,脆弱性家庭相对非脆弱性家庭对停伐政策的认可度较高,但是应对风险冲击的能力相对较低。脆弱性家庭和非脆弱性家庭对停伐政策的态度受户主特征、家庭特征以及政策认知特征变量的显著影响,但脆弱性家庭变量参数估计绝对值相对更大,因而停伐政策对脆弱性家庭有着更为敏感和强烈的冲击。     

NO对大鼠中脑腹侧被盖区DA神经元的调节

实验观察了微量注射 NOS抑制剂 L -NAME及微量联合注射 NO的前体 L-精氨酸( L-Arg) L-NAME于大鼠中脑腹侧被盖区( VTA)对该部位多巴胺神经元的调节。发现VTA注射 L -NAME( 1 mg/ 5μL )后 ,伏隔核( Acb)多巴胺 ( DA )代谢产物—双羟苯乙酸( DOPAC)水平升高到注射前的 1 2 2 .5% ( P <0 .0 0 1 ) ,小剂量注射 L-NAME( 0 .2 mg/ 5μL)对伏隔核 DOPAC水平无明显影响 ;同样方法联合注射 L-Arg( 3 0 0 μg/ 5μL) L-NAME( 1 mg/5μL)后 ,伏隔核 DOPAC水平无明显变化。结论 :VTA微量注射 L-NAME兴奋了该部位的DA神经元 ,而 L -Arg L -NAME联合注射 ,却不能影响 DA神经元的活动 ,说明 NO可以通过L-Arg-NOS-NO途径参与 VTA多巴胺神经元的调节     

海南岛昌江县昌化镇草地及其利用途径

海南岛昌江县昌化镇草地,用点样法取得数据,应用spss软件聚类分析,可划分为五类。以和它草——三芒草群落面积最大,最有代表性;金须茅——蔓荆子——绢毛飘拂草则局限于滨海沙地上。文章末尾就利用问题作了讨论。     

我国农业区域开发简史及历史经验

本文讨论了中国农区开发之始、几个主要农区的深开发、黄淮江湖的连片开发、海河流域的开发、其它农区的开发和农区开发的历史经验与教训。完好的灌溉系统、导致深开发的人工运河和农业技术是开发成功的要素。     

氮吸附法分析生物质焦孔隙结构

采用氮吸附法对4种生物质焦(稻壳、树叶、玉米秆、棉花秆)的孔隙结构进行测量,结果表明,不同种类焦样的比表面积和孔径分布有明显差别,树叶的比表面积最大,为242.21 m2·g-1,玉米秆的比表面积最小,为0.81 m2·g-1.850℃时,稻壳、树叶、玉米秆焦样的孔径分布曲线在微孔和中孔范围各有一个分布峰,而棉花秆焦样的孔径分布曲线只在中孔范围内出现一个分布峰.热解温度是影响孔隙结构的一个重要因素,在高温条件下,同步热解得到的焦样的比表面积较大,微孔较多.在本研究中,600℃、850℃的稻壳焦样和850℃的树叶焦样具有较大的比表面积,比较适合做吸附剂.     

Acclimation abilities of three tropical rainforest seedlings to an increase in light intensity

Current practices in many nurseries involve the germination of tropical rainforest seedlings in shaded conditions and transferral, at a later date, to environments with greater light intensities. Determination of the ability of these seedlings to acclimate to increased light intensities will allow seedling stock to be processed with maximum efficiency within the nursery. The acclimation abilities of three species, Agyrodendron actinophyllum, Cardwellia sublimis, and Flindersia brayleyana, commonly found in north Queensland's rainforests were investigated in this study. These particular species are highly valued for their cabinet timber qualities and are being reared in nurseries for use in reforestation trials and programs in north Queensland. Seedlings were initially raised in greenhouse conditions under two layers of shade cloth (16% of full sunlight) and then transferred into full sunlight at three different ages (3 weeks, 10 weeks, 14 weeks). Upon transfer, organ ratios and the direction of dry matter distribution was determined for each species and age group. Approximately 3 months after the seedlings were transferred, the acclimation ability of each species and age group was then determined. Dry matter distribution was found to change with age, irrespective of light environment. Individuals within a species with larger root systems and thicker or more dense leaves had a greater acclimation ability than those with smaller root systems and thinner or less dense leaves. Furthermore, individuals within a species whose dry matter distribution upon transfer was directed towards developing a large root system, and a small photosynthetic area and mass, had a greater acclimation ability than those whose dry matter distribution was directed away from such morphologies. Awareness of these relationships allows a better understanding of seedling response to gap formation in natural forests, and also allows plant nursery operators to make a more informed decision about when to move seedlings to environments with a higher light intensity.