新疆干旱区土地盐渍化信息提取及实证分析

对提取干旱区盐渍化信息的若干方法进行了评述,并且选取位于干旱区地带的盐渍化典型区域——阿克苏地区的库车、新和、沙雅县以及和田地区的于田县作为研究区进行实证分析。并采用同一时相的ETM+数据,运用K-T变换、比值变换以及通过NDVI指数和分类来提取信息发现效果明显。通过实证分析发现:虽然研究区都地处塔里木盆地周边地区,一个是塔北绿洲,另一个是塔南绿洲。但由于水文(盐渍化形成的关键)、气候(形成盐渍化土壤的驱动力)、地形(盐渍化土壤分布及差异的主要因素)、人类活动(盐渍化土壤形成的重要因素)等因素差异的存在,导致了盐渍化情况的差异。     

石家庄区域循环农业发展现状实证调研

从农业循环经济的角度出发,以石家庄为例,通过对1996~2006年相关时序资料及随机问卷结果的分析,系统阐述了该区域循环农业发展的现状及问题,提出了该区提高资源利用率及农牧副产品(秸秆和粪便利用)循环利用的3大主体模式,并探讨了各模式的增值潜力。     

基于Copula函数与经验频率曲线的富营养化风险分析

富营养化问题是我国湖泊面临的重要问题。太湖作为我国东部最大的淡水湖泊,附近城市供水水源地,其富营养化问题直接关系到苏州、无锡、江阴、湖州等环太湖城市的饮用水安全。选取浮游动物生物量、浮游植物生物量和叶绿素作为浮游生物数量的3个指标,绘制经验频率曲线,并采用Copula函数将其进行有效联结,从而得到太湖不同分区的富营养化风险评估。结果表明,太湖西北部湖区富营养化较为严重。     

绍兴市农民收入增长影响因素的实证分析

以绍兴市为例,通过深入农村调研,对农民收入情况进行调查分析,同时采用实证分析的方法找出农民收入增长的关键因素。在此基础上,结合绍兴地区的实际情况,提出切实有效的农民增收建议,以促进绍兴地区农民收入持续增长。     

土地利用/覆被变化的研究综述

气候变化和土地利用变化是影响景观格局动态的两个主要因素。气候变化作为一个重要的自然环境因子,在一定程度上作用于自然植被的分布,进而产生对生物多样性的影响;随着城市化进程的加快,由于人口增长和社会经济发展的社会驱动力作用下,土地利用变化将使得景观格局的变化更为复杂。该文对土地利用/覆被变化驱动力的研究进展及研究热点进行了综述,并从定量评估土地利用/覆被变化变化的角度,回顾了土地利用/覆被变化的模型研究进展,最后分析和展望了当前土地利用/覆被变化相关研究的不确定性及未来发展方向。为景观格局变化对珍稀濒危动物栖息地的影响研究提供理论依据。     

Prediction of the buckling stress of intermediate wooden columns using the secant modulus

We made several buckling tests of wooden columns with intermediate slenderness ratios () and examined the empirical formulas. On the basis of the examination, we formulated an equation for predicting the buckling stress () of an intermediate wooden column. Sitka spruce (Picea sitchensis Carr.) and buna (Japanese beech, Fagus crenata BI.) were used for the studies. A compressive load was applied on the specimen supported with pin ends, and the buckling stress was predicted by the tangent modulus theory and two empirical equations: those of Tetmajer and Newlin-Gahagan. The predicted - relations were compared with the test results, and the applicability of these predictions were examined. Based on the comparisons, we formulated an equation that can predict the - relations of materials with various stress-strain characters in the plastic strain range.     

Annualized diameter and height growth equations for Pacific Northwest plantation-grown Douglas-fir, western hemlock, and red alder

Simulating the influence of intensive management and annual weather fluctuations on tree growth requires a shorter time step than currently employed by most regional growth models. High-quality data sets are available for several plantation species in the Pacific Northwest region of the United States, but the growth periods ranged from 2 to 12 years in length. Measurement periods of varying length complicate efforts to fit growth models because observed growth rates must be interpolated to a common length growth period or those growth periods longer or shorter than the desired model time step must be discarded. A variation of the iterative technique suggested by Cao [Cao, Q.V., 2000. Prediction of annual diameter growth and survival for individual trees from periodic measurements. Forest Sci. 46, 127–131] was applied to estimate annualized diameter and height growth equations for pure plantations of Douglas-fir, western hemlock, and red alder. Using this technique, fits were significantly improved for all three species by embedding a multi-level nonlinear mixed-effects framework (likelihood ratio test: p < 0.0001). The final models were consistent with expected biological behavior of diameter and height growth over tree, stand, and site variables. The random effects showed some correlation with key physiographic variables such as slope and aspect for Douglas-fir and red alder, but these relationships were not observed for western hemlock. Further, the random effects were more correlated with physiographic variables than actual climate or soils information. Long-term simulations (12–16 years) on an independent dataset using these annualized equations showed that the multi-level mixed effects models were more accurate and precise than those fitted without random effects as mean square error (MSE) was reduced by 13 and 21% for diameter and height growth prediction, respectively. The level of prediction error was also smaller than an existing similar growth model with a longer time step (ORGANON v8) as the annualized equations reduced MSE by 17 and 38% for diameter and height growth prediction, respectively. These models will prove to be quite useful for understanding the interaction of weather and silviculture in the Pacific Northwest and refining the precision of future growth model projections.     

汽车4S店服务补救对补救绩效的影响研究

基于债务结构的研究视角,以德国和PIIGS五国为例,构建主权债务可持续性模型,量化研究债务自身结构、宏观经济结构以及财政支出结构对债务可持续性的影响,并运用向量自回归模型进行检验.研究结果表明：适度地提高长期债券所占比重（以65%-75%为宜）,同时降低短期债务的比重（不超过15%）,改善宏观经济结构并促进国内就业,扩大固定资产投资的财政支出,均有助于抑制债务规模的持续扩张,维持主权债务的可持续性.     

论冯至《十四行集》的自我认同

经验性自我是冯至留德期间在以里尔克为代表的德语文化熏炙之下,为现代中国和新诗探询的一种独特而稀缺的自我类型,是理解《十四行集》的必要条件。它在《十四行集》自我实现的表征为：现代知性诗学的建构、现代整体时间观的认同、人与自然等他者关系的发现。集体认同为核心的抗战文化语境里,在歌德“蜕变论”等思想影响下,冯至经验性自我也生发重构。呈现冯至上个世纪三四十年个人的自我精神嬗变史,能反思中国现代知识分子自我建构的深刻问题。     

作物养分定量化模型原理及方法比较分析

本文比较分析了养分经验模型和动态模拟模型的原理和计算方法。比较典型的经验模型有肥料效应函数方程,目标产量法,以及基于土壤肥力指标的QUEFTS(QUantitative Evaluation of the Fertility of Trop ical Soils)养分模型等。经验模型的特点是简单易行,所需参数少,但模拟精度难免误差较大;动态模拟模型由于考虑到复杂因素对作物养分吸收的影响,以及植物营养的动态过程,更能反映的系统真实行为。然而,由于土壤养分运移和作物养分吸收过程的复杂性,目前除氮外,还很难做到其它养分的动态定量化模拟,这些都还有待于更深入的基础性研究。